The see saw in regions and the data for 01.21.2022

The Health Agency reports 32,744 new cases today based on more than 75,000 tests done with a 44% positivity rate (still staggeringly high) on January 19. With only a little more than 16000 recoveries, this brings the active cases up to past 291,000 as more than 98% of them are mild or asymptomatic. The total cases will exceed 3.4M by Sunday as the provinces pour in with more cases now.

Hospital utilization rate is moderate risk but has shifted in burden to the provinces as the national HCUR exceeds or approaches that of the NCR.

Additional 156 deaths are reported today.

The NCR continued the declining streak as it recorded 7279 new cases (22% of the total cases) led by Quezon City with 1260 cases. The LGU with most cases for the day? Davao City which had 1376 cases while Davao Region reported 1726 cases.

CALABARZON is seeing a slight decline in cases as well with 6749 cases, while Central Luzon is still on a upward trajectory for cases at 4402. Other regions with high cases include: CAR 1376, Ilocos 1667, Central Visayas 1911, Western Visayas 1782. The remaining regions are seeing increasing cases which are off-setting the lowering of cases in the NCR, accounting for the high numbers seen in the country.

Returning Overseas Filipinos reported 145 positives.

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From Prof. Guido David (with permission to share) are three infographics that provide a summary or snapshot on the current status of the pandemic.

  1. The NCR weekly growth rate has a steady decline (although some LGUs are performing worse than the rest). The data should be treated with some caution as these DO NOT include lateral flow assays (Rapid Antigen Tests) and have limited data in children because many parents refuse to have their children tests.
  2. The projected trend using the current data for the NCR, which is the epicenter of this difficult surge.
  3. The rise in cases outside of NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon as the shift in cases is now in these regions. The problem with regions outside of NCR (plus) is that the vaccination rate is also lower and the healthcare systems in these areas may be less capacitated than within Mega Manila.

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