How NCR plus affects the surge and the data for 01.24.2022

The Health Agency announces 24,938 new cases today based on a little less than 60,000 cases with a positivity rate of 40.6% on January 22. With more recoveries, the active cases drop to around 262,000 with more than 98% of them being asymptomatic or mild at the time of diagnosis.

Health care utilization remains moderate risk but at much lower levels than the last two weeks.

The lower positivity rate and lower health care utilization is due to the lower cases now in the National Capital Region (including CALABARZON and Central Luzon). This also accounts for the drop in positivity rate as the cases begin to recede in the epicenter. However, the rise of cases in the provinces continue and with less testing capacity and financial capability, there may be some disconnection in the testing and positivity rate in these areas. For now, we remain blind to the situation as the Department of Health has not had a regular daily data drop since January 15, 2022. Hopefully, as more people recover from quarantine or isolation status in the Health Agency, we will soon see more realistic numbers to make better projections.

There are 47 added deaths today.

The NCR reports 4018 of the close to 25000 cases – or 16% of the cases in the country. Quezon City continued to lead the haul with 1030 cases but it was the cities of Las Piñas 353 and Muntinlupa 352 cases that came in second and third. Manila continued to see a dramatic decline in cases with 333 only reported today.

Outside of NCR, CALABARZON had 3469 and Central Luzon 2265 cases. NCR plus own less than 38% of the cases in the country.

Those seeing four digit numbers outside of NCR plus for the day are: CAR 1312, Ilocos Region 1938, Cagayan Valley 1632, Western Visayas 1501, Central Visayas 2588, Northern Mindanao 1012 and Davao Region 2292.

There are 104 ROFs that had positive results today.

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Outside of NCR, the following provinces have the highest levels of risk based on ADAR. Note that NCR, Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan are seeing negative one-week growth rates, but other provinces are seeing tremendous increases. Highest ADAR is Benguet with >101 per 100,000 population.

NCR and some contiguous provinces annexed to it saw the rise in their cases towards the end of December and spiked disproportionately at the start of the year. As the numbers gradually ease, the other provinces are now experiencing the same phenomenon.

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