Past 3.4M, the week in review and the data for 01.23.2022

The Health Agency reports 29,929 new cases based on 69,014 tests with a positivity rate of 41.8% last January 21. With more recoveries than active cases reported today, the active cases slide a little lower to 273,580 with more than 98% of them being mild.

Overall health care utilization is at moderate risk, noticeably lower in the National Capital Region than the national data.

There are 67 deaths added today.

NCR reported 5433 new cases today or 18.2% of the total cases in the country as the other provinces are seeing rapid increases in cases. Quezon City owned 1015 of the case and was the only LGU in NCR reporting quadruple numbers. The City of Manila had the most dramatic drop in this surge and reported only 483 cases today. Of 17 LGUs, Muntinlupa City owned 8.4% of the total share with 444 cases and is one of the LGUs with high ADAR and Rt when compared to other LGUs in NCR.

CALABARZON had 4317 and Central Luzon 2820 cases. Their cases, while in the 4-digits are slowing down like NCR.

Everywhere else, the numbers are up with Western Visayas 2573, Davao Region 2572, Central Visayas 2501, CAR 1911, Northern Mindanao 1144, and Ilocos Region 1021.

Davao City led among all LGUs with most cases in the Philippines for the day with 1831 cases or 71.2% of the total cases in Davao Region alone.

143 ROFs (returning Overseas Filipinos) were reported positive today.

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From Prof. Guido David, the highly urbanized cities in the Philippines with the highest cases are in the infographic provided below. Notice that all have positive growth over the past week, except for NCR which is seeing a negative decline in cases. (However, there are some LGUs in the NCR that remain at higher risk than others.) The Rt for NCR is now at high risk of 1.20 from a previous severe, while all other HUCs are at very high. The ADAR in Baguio City and Iloilo City is classified as severe risk. The ADAR in Mega Manila is now downgraded to very high risk from a previous severe the day before.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The numbers in the Philippines continue to pass the 30,000 mark. While the total cases in the epicenter, the National Capital Region slow down significantly, this nation of more than 7,600 islands is seeing higher cases outside of NCR and is offsetting the gains in Mega Manila.

Notice that there is a slight downward trend, but not enough to say that the whole country has peaked. Local data above from OCTA Research shows that only the National Capital Region has slowed down in the Omicron surge, while the other provinces are seeing rising cases. Tests and positivity remain very high. As a matter of fact, positivity rate yesterday was at past 45% in the Philippines. This is disturbing because this can only mean that there are more cases, people may be testing (with rapid antigen) but the data is not being recorded by the Health Agency as the latter only records RT-PCR results.

However, the Rt is down to 1.31 from a previous high of >4.0 at the first week of the year.

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the Rt of Indonesia is up at 1.76, and while it still is seeing relatively lower cases than other countries in the region, the data shows a trend towards an uptick in cases as it continued to report four digits over the past week, with 3,205 new cases yesterday. With the R continuing in an upward trajectory, as it braces for an Omicron surge. We need to monitor for this ongoing development in the fourth most populous nation in the world.

Singapore has the most cases per capita in the region, followed by the Philippines and Vietnam.

Around other Asian countries, it is Japan that is seeing a huge rise in cases as the R jumps past 2 and the number of cases came close to a record high of almost 50,000 cases yesterday. The prefecture of Tokyo, the most populous city in Japan reported a record of more than 11,000 cases in a single day yesterday, as the country of the rising sun struggles with the Omicron surge as well.

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