Lowering cases and the data for 01.31.2022

Tomorrow, NCR and 7 other areas in the Philippines shift to Alert Level 2.

The Health Agency reports 14,546 new cases based on 52,013 tests with a positivity rate of 28.4% done last January 29. With more recoveries than active cases, the active cases drop to around 190,000 – 97.4% of who are asymptomatic or mild.

Healthcare utilization is now at low risk nationally and in the NCR (however, caution should be provided in interpreting this as applicable to every LGU as there may be some areas seeing high HCUR particularly in places that have lower vaccination coverage).

There are 112 deaths added today.

In a dramatic twist of numbers (with many backlogs from different areas), the NCR bounces back to lead with 4040 cases or 27% of the total numbers for the day. This is led by the City of Manila that has 861 cases and is the highest among all LGUs in the country. A close second is Quezon City with 838 new cases followed by Makati 334, Parañaque 263, Caloocan 240, Taguig 219 and Pasig 218. All other LGUs report less than 200 cases with a sprinkling reporting double digits. None had single digit numbers today.

Outside of NCR, only 4 regions had four digit numbers: CALABARZON 1644, Davao Region 1401 (with Davao City having 722 cases and is third highest among LGUs in the country for today), Central Luzon 1152, and Central Visayas 1029.

The shift in tide back to NCR the past days is bothersome as Mega Manila’s negative trend has flattened and there is no continuing sustained downtrend. Will shifting to Alert Level 2 in the midst of these high numbers be worth it so that we can celebrate the Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day?

We will know after 2-4 weeks.

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