The holiday rush, and the combined forces of delta and omicron changed the landscape of the pandemic in the Philippines within a 7 day period. The exponential rise in cases is a major cause for concern because of its potential effect on both the healthcare system and economy.

The Health Agency reports a positivity rate of almost 20% for December 31, where only 26,122 tests were done resulting in 4,600 new cases announced today. This pushes the active cases past 21,000 and the mild to more than 75% of the total active cases.

There are 25 additional deaths announced today.

The NCR continued to see rising cases as the region accounted for 72% of the total cases today with the City of Manila accounting for almost 30% of the share of cases in NCR. Cases in CALABARZON and Central Luzon are also up.

But it is Mega Manila that is at the eye of the storm.

All LGUs in NCR, except Pateros, are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day, with 11 of 17 LGUs reporting triple digits. The rise in cases do no include patients who self test with antigen kits in their homes. These are all data only from RT-PCR, so the numbers may even be higher.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

There will be a mix of data for this week because within a 7 day period, the numbers exponentially rose in the country. From a daily average of < 300 cases, yesterday ended with 3,610 or more than an 12x rise of new cases (and an increase in positivity rate from 0.9% to 16%) within the same time interval.

In summary, you’re really not going to see the worse of data this week. Undeniably, these numbers will be sustained for awhile before it gets better. The problem is that 70% of the total national cases are concentrated in the NCR, which is always the driving force or the epicenter of this pandemic in the Philippines.

While the effective reproduction rate as of December 27 shows the increase in Rt of the Philippines, it jumped from lowest Rt last week to third highest in select Asian countries as of this date. With the increase in cases, the country will most likely see a rapid increase in reproduction quicker than expected.

2022 starts off with 3,617 new cases based on close to 30,000 tests done last December 30, a holiday, with 14.8% positivity rate. The large climb in positivity rate shows us that there will be continuing rise in cases in the upcoming weeks. The public is urged to make sure the minimum health standards are strictly observed, and when given the chance, to get vaccinated or booster shots as soon as possible.

Active cases are at more than 17,000 with 70% of them being mild cases. Hospital utilization rate at the National Capital Region is up, together with ICU utilization rate, but remains at low risk. Because hospitalization is a lagging indicator, we need to monitor this closely so that we can manage its appropriate use.

The NCR surges (and I am allowed to use that word now) with 70% of the total cases in the country on the first day of the 2022. The City of Manila is overwhelmed with 843 cases or 1/3 of the total cases in NCR belonged to this LGU alone. This is followed by Quezon City with 417 cases.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, Laguna and Batangas saw an increase in number of cases today.

All the LGUs in NCR are among the top twenty LGUs with most cases for the day, except for Pateros that recorded 13 new cases. There are three LGUs in Cavite and one from Rizal in the top twenty list.

Interesting is the breakdown in age. Notice that the pediatrics population (18 years old and below) made up more cases (12.5% or 1/8th of the total) compared to senior citizens (8%). The majority or more than 50% of todays cases? Those between 20-39 years old.