Most of East Asian nations easing of numbers and the data for 04.03.2022

The shocker for the Sunday data was the 690 new cases and 19 deaths today.

Almost 50% of the cases are from NCR.

Leading the pack was Quezon City with 62 cases. There are 11 of 17 LGUs with double digits. They are: Pasay City 43, City of Manila 42, Makati 35, Parañaque 28, Pasig 25, Taguig 18, Caloocan 17, Las Piñas and Mandaluyong 11, and Valenzuela 10. The remaining LGUs had single digits and no LGU had zero case today.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces/HUCs had double digits: Cavite 43, Laguna 20, Rizal 14, Batangas 11, Bulacan 27, Bataan 11, Iloilo 19 (11 province, 8 city), Cebu 25 (city 12, province 13), Isabela 12, Davao City 13, and Zamboanga City 12.

The question is – are the numbers up or is this backlog being reported? Only the Department of Health has the answers.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The week in review starts with a good note for the Philippines as the 7-day average of cases is at 340 cases/day or 3.05 cases per million population. The reproduction rate is stable at 0.76 (+/- 0.05), but needs to continually stay lower in order to see a more rapid decline in cases. Notice that majority of the daily positive cases in the Philippines are from the National Capital Region, which remains the epicenter of the pandemic. While more than 95% of the eligible population is vaccinated in Mega Manila, the daily cases are mainly from this highly dense region. 30-40% of the daily national cases are from here. The

The death toll, while lower this week compared to last week is marred by backlog reports of deaths from August to November 2021 – when delta variant struck the nation. Note that the death reports do not reflect current death cases any longer.

Among countries in East Asian, there is an over-all declining number in daily cases. South Korea, which hit more than 600,000 cases is now seeing an average of 300,000 cases as their reproduction rate hits 0.87.

It is, however, China, that is seeing more cases to date. The 7-day average of China is at 6500 cases a day. Note that China officially reports cases as COVID19 confirmed cases ONLY if the patients are symptomatic at the time of testing. In worldometers.info, that’s the information that is posted. In ourworldindata.org, the data includes ALL cases – both symptomatic and asymptomatic at the time of testing. China is forgetting that patients at the time of testing can progress to symptomatic status later on. For consistency and transparency purposes, all who test positive for the virus should included as a case count – symptomatic or not.

On a per capita basis, South Korea lead with an average of 6000 cases per million population/day, China is at 4.5 cases per million population/day. This rate for China is high, considering that the population of the country is at 1.4B people. Indonesia has dramatically reserved its omicron surge as quickly as the Philippines and has the best effective reproduction number among all the countries in East Asia.

With Thailand’s reproduction rate at 1.11, it now has overtaken the Philippines in global rank of COVID-19 cases. The Philippines goes down one rung and is at number 30 in the world. With Indonesia’s Rt at 0.54, the number of cases are expected to decline further and more rapidly in the subsequent week.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s