Taiwan surge, the week in review and the data for 04.24.2022

The Health Agency announces 205 new cases with 3 added deaths today. NCR took the haul with more than 46% of the total cases.

Three LGUs in NCR reported double digits with Pasay City reporting 20 cases, Quezon City 15 and Manila 13. Other LGUs in Mega Manila had single digit numbers with 2 LGUs having zero covid – Pateros and Navotas.

Outside of NCR, the provinces of Cavite (14) and Rizal (12) were the only provinces with double digit cases today.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines continues to see a slight decline in cases, although the decrease has considerably slowed down. This week ends with an average of 210 cases daily or around 1.89 cases per million (per capita). The reader is cautioned to interpret this data carefully because (1) many do not use RT-PCR for testing and (2) the health agency does not include RAT (rapid antigen test) in the daily count.

A good indicator though is the healthcare utilization rate which is at a very low risk status. Positivity rate also low at 1.4% (based on the Department of Health COVID19 tracker).

The death rates are also down, although the past several days, we’ve had more than 60 deaths daily (most likely due to backlog reports). At the rate the health agency reports deaths, it’s difficult to make heads or tails on correlating the deaths with the number of daily (or even weekly) cases in the pandemic.

All East Asian nations are seeing a lowering of cases, except for Taiwan and China.

Based on number of cases, South Korea continues to lead the region, however, with a significant drop in the daily cases reported. Japan continued to report more than 40,000 daily cases and seems to be unable to shake off the numbers. China is now in third spot as Vietnam clears the bar and drops to an average of 20,000 daily cases.

In terms of number of cases per capita, South Korea remains on top with 1720 cases per million people, while Singapore is in second with 572 per million. Brunei, which is seeing a daily average of 177 cases per day based on the 7 day average) is up in third with 400 cases per million population. The Philippines remains at the lowest rung with 1.89 cases per million population.

Effective reproduction rate shows that Taiwan’s Rt is up at 1.77. This means that Taiwan has not yet peaked and will most likely see more cases in the coming weeks. This is the same story as China whose Rt is at 1.20 (as of April 19, 2022). With the recent upswing of cases in Beijing, the COVID19 outbreak in China may be quite challenging to control. The Rt of the Philippine is at 0.78 (+/- 0.05), indicating that we still have the potential to bring down the cases but the decline will significantly slow down over the new weeks. Indonesia’s Rt is at 0.40, indicating a continued significant decrease in cases in the upcoming week as the Omicron wave comes to an end as well.

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