With the increasing reproduction number in the country, being led by the National Capital Region, it was inevitable that we would see rising cases soon. And the for the past weeks, this see-saw in a small drop and a larger rise was expected.

The Health Agency reports 3,051 new cases for the week of June 13-19, 2022. That’s an 82% increase in cases of the week prior to this week’s report where there were 1,682 cases for the week of June 6-12, 2022.

There were 15 cases of severe/critical disease this week compared to 8 the week prior, and 6 additional deaths (none being recent as those reported occurred before June 6) compared to 5 the week prior.

Health care utilization is an important index. The non-ICU bed utilization is down at 18.2% (4,033 of 22,156 beds) this week compared to 20.3% the past week (3,188 of 15,706 beds). Notice, however that in reality, there were MORE non-ICU bed admissions (4,033 vs 3,188) this week than the previous. It is just the denominator changing. That means that there are more non-ICU beds being allocated now than the previous week.

ICU utilization is also down to 14.6% (385 of 2,636 ICU beds) compared to the week prior of 16.6% (345 of 2,078 beds). Notice again, that there are actually MORE ICU bed admission (385 vs. 345) this week than the previous, with the denominator changing from 2,078 up now to 2,636. This means that there are more ICU beds being allocated now than the previous week.

Vaccination against COVID-19 is up at 77.81% (from 77.51%), as more than 272,000 were fully vaccinated from June 13-19, 2022. More than 327,000 individuals availed of the booster or additional dose from June 13-19 (up from 214,142 individuals the week of June 6-12). The A2 population has 77.47% vaccinated (but was not a significant rise when compared to the 77.42% already vaccinated the week prior).

As of this report, the Rt of the country is at 1.65 (+/- 0.05), while NCR is almost 2.0.

The 7-day positivity rate of the Philippines stood at 3.1% as of June 19, 2022.

The DoH announces 529 cases today with 3.8% positivity rate for June 20, 2022. The NCR accounted for 279 (53%) of the cases today. This was led by 12 LGUs that reported double digits. QC led the pack with 59 cases. Makati and Manila had 36 each. Parañaque with 31, Pasay City 18, Las Piñas 16, Marikina and Pasig with 15 each, Mandaluyong with 13, Caloocan with 11 and Taguig and Muntinlupa with 10 apiece. Only Pateros had zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, CALBARZON had 83 cases (Cavite and Laguna 26 each, Rizal 20, and Quezon with 11). Other provinces that saw double digits were: Bulacan 14, Pampanga 11, Bataan 10, Iloilo 19, and Cebu 11.

The Philippines breaches the 600 mark with 612 new cases today, 293 (48%) from the National Capital Region. The 7-day positivity rate is up at 3.1% today. No added deaths were reported by the Health Agency.

Eight LGUs in NCR had double digits today. This was led by Quezon City with 71 cases. The others with double numbers were: Makati 41, Parañaque 33, Manila 31, Pasig 29, Taguig 24, Las Piñas 12, and Mandaluyong 10. While the rest had single digits, many had more than 5 cases. Only Navotas and Pateros reported zero covid.

CALABARZON had 78 cases with Cavite 26, Rizal 21, Laguna 20, Batangas 9 and Quezon 2.

Other provinces/HUCs with double digits today were: Bulacan 14, Iloilo 50 (province 20, city 30), Cebu 29 (15 from Cebu City), Negros Occidental 11 (Bacolod City 4), and Baguio City 15.

Others with a bump up in cases were: Cagayan 7, Benguet 7, and Palawan 6.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The rundown for the week has the Philippines reporting a higher than the previous week cases. As the number of cases now surpass the 500 mark, the 7-day average as of June 18, 2022 was at 391 new cases/day.

While the country may proudly claim to have the lowest cases in the region (aside from China) yet, in terms of both number of daily cases and per capita (per million population), we are the only country whose effective reproduction number is on the rise. While the Rt is only slightly up, all efforts must be exerted at pushing the Rt lower without creating problems with the current economic situation.

There is a need for the citizens to ensure that they heed the government’s reminder of getting fully vaccinated and when needed, get their booster shots. While it is understood that people have their own choices on whether they would want to get vaccinated or not, the pandemic is an over-all scenario where health and economy need to co-exist. Tipping the balance towards one side when resources are scarce is not helpful to the situation.

The Health Agency announces 585 new cases today, with no added deaths. NCR accounted for 266 of the cases as the positivity rate is on a slight uptick at 3%.

In NCR, 7 LGUs had double digits today, with Quezon City remaining in the forefront with 68 cases. Others with double numbers were: Makati 39, Manila 33, Pasig 24, Parañaque 22, Mandaluyong 19, and Taguig 16. While other LGUs saw single digits, majority of them were 5 or more cases. Only Pateros had zero covid today.

Outside of the NCR, CALABARZON breached 100 cases with 103 new cases added today. This was led by Cavite with 43, Rizal 25, Laguna 24, Batangas 10 and Quezon 3.

Other provinces with double digits were: Bulacan 26, Pampanga 13, Iloilo 29 (city 17, province 12), Negros Occidental 10 (with half coming from Bacolod City), Cebu 14 (with 5 coming from Cebu City), and Palawan 10.

Other provinces/HUCs which saw slight upticks were: Maguindanao 5, Southern Leyte 5, South Cotabato 8, and Pangasinan 8.

The Health Agency announces 539 new cases with 6 added deaths today. The NCR owned 282 of these cases. Positivity rate in the country is up at 3%.

In Mega Manila, 9 LGUs reported double digits led by Quezon City with 66 cases today. The rest with double numbers were: Pasig 40, Manila 38, Makati 26, Parañaque 21, Mandaluyong 18, Taguig 17, Las Piñas 16, Muntinlupa 11. Only Navotas had zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, CALABARZON had 74 cases led by Cavite 29, Rizal 15, Laguna 14, Batangas 9, Quezon 7.

Other provinces with double digits were: Iloilo 26 (city 15, province 11), Negros Occidental 19 (Bacolod 14, province 5), Cebu 21 (Cebu City 14).

Baguio City had 9 cases today.

The Health Agency announced 425 new cases today with the NCR accounting for 214 of the cases for the day. Eight (8) LGUs in Mega Manila reported double digits: Quezon City 43, Makati 26, Pasay City 22, Manila 21, Parañaque 20, Pasig and Taguig with 18 cases each, and Mandaluyong 13. Only Malabon and Navotas had zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, Region IV-A (CALABARZON) reported 69 cases, led by Cavite with 25, Rizal 22 and Laguna 12. Batangas had 7, while Quezon owned 3.

Other provinces/HUCs with double digits were: Iloilo 32 (20 city, 12 province) and Pampanga 11.

The other province that saw a bump up in cases reported today was Isabela with 7 new cases.

The 7-day positivity rate is up at 2.9% today.

As the Health Agency announces 6 new cases of BA.5 and 10 new cases of BA.2.12.1, there are 256 new cases added today. The 7-day positivity rate drops to 2.6% as NCR accounted for 46% of the cases for the day. There are no added deaths.

Mega Manila had 117 cases today, which was led by 5 LGUs with double digits. They were: Quezon City 23, Pasig 19, Makati 12, and Manila and Taguig with 10 each. Malabon, San Juan and Pateros had zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, CALABARZON had 52 cases led by Rizal 18, Cavite 16, Laguna 10, Batangas 7 and Quezon province 1.

Other provinces with double digits were: Bulacan 11, and Iloilo 21 (city 16, province 5).

Davao City reported 7 cases today.

The Health Agency announces 257 new cases today, the low Tuesday. There are no added deaths today. However, NCR continued to own 50% of the cases in the Philippines. The other parameter one should be looking at is the positivity rate, which is now at 2.7%.

In the NCR, five LGUs reported double digits. They were: Makati and Manila with 19 each, Quezon City 17, Pasig 12 and Mandaluyong 10. Only Navotas and Pateros had zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, the provinces with double digits were: Cavite 22 and Rizal 11.

Remember, that the cases today are based on tests done on Sunday, June 12 where many testing facilities may also be closed. With a positivity rate of close to 3% we should be teetering the 400-500 anytime.

The Health Agency announces the 7-day summary of cases for the week of June 6-12, 2022. New cases this week stand at 1,682 (7-day average of 240 cases/day) compared to 1,295 cases reported the week prior or May 30 – June 5, 2022 or a jump of more than 30% in number of cases. There were 8 additional severe and critical cases this week (which comprised only 0.48% of the total cases) compared to 16 additional cases last week (1.24% of the total cases). Of the five deaths announced this week, 2 were recent (occurring from May 30 – June 12).

Hospital utilization in the country remained at a low of 20.3% for non-ICU bed utilization, but is up from last week’s 18.1%. ICU bed utilization this past week was at 16.6%, also up from 14.7% the week before last. However, the total severe and critical admissions are now down to 498 compared to the 599 that were still severe and critical the week before this.

In terms of vaccination coverage, fully vaccinated is at 77.51% this week as there were a little more than 271,000 additional vaccinees for full vaccination classification. The A2 population coverage (senior citizens) is at 77.42% (from 77.33%).

A comparison on month on month number of COVID-19 cases for 2021 vs 2022 is provided below. The blue bars are for the year 2021 while the orange represents 2022. All data are extracted from the daily report of the Department of Health. Note that the worst year was 2021 as the Philippines had gone through alpha, beta, and delta variants of concern. Omicron came into the picture late December 2021, which accounted for the surge in January and February 2022. This surge was very limited and quick to decline. The number of COVID19 cases in December 2021 was only slightly lower than March 2022. The data for June 2022 isn’t complete yet and is up to June 12, 2022. With the slight bump up in cases, we may expect June to have slightly more cases than the month of May, and hopefully not exceed that of the month of April 2022. (Thank you Ching Rubio for providing the month on month data)

The Health Agency announces 386 new cases today, with no added deaths. The daily positivity rate is up at 2.2%. It’s been awhile since we tipped over the 2% mark.

The NCR accounts for almost half of the cases today. Six LGUs continue to report double digits as Quezon City dominated with 50 cases today. Quezon City alone accounted for 26.5% of the cases in Mega Manila. Others with double digits were: Manila 29, Makati 18, Parañaque 17, Pasig 14, Las Piñas 10. Three LGUs had zero covid today. They were: Malabon, Navotas and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, four provinces in CALABARZON report double digits. Rizal led with 26, followed by Cavite 18, and Laguna and Batangas with 10 each.

Iloilo had 10 cases (6 province, 4 city) and the only province with double digits outside of Luzon with double numbers today.

Other provinces with unusual bump up in cases included Cagayan and Pangasinan with 8 cases each.

The Health Agency announces 308 new cases (it’s been awhile since we have hit the 300 mark) with half of the cases coming from NCR alone. While there are no added deaths today, 6 LGUs in Mega Manila report double digits. This was led by Quezon City with 36 cases. The rest were: Manila 21, Parañaque 19, Makati 17, Pasig 14, and Taguig 10. Marikina, Malabon and Pateros had zero covid today.

Provinces outside of NCR that reported double digits today were: Cavite 14, Bulacan 10, Negros Occidental 11 (province 7, Bacolod City 4), Cebu 14 (city 11, province 3). Zambaonga City had 8 and General Santos 6 cases.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

According to the World Health Organization (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19—8-june-2022) situation report, as of June 8, the world continued to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases with a 12% drop from the previous week. While there are certain areas where there is still a high number of cases, the omicron variant and its sub variants are the dominant circulating serotypes globally.

The clinical characteristics of omicron sublineages are provided in the summary below. Not that there currently are NO studies on relative transmissibility for BA.4 and BA.5 compared to BA.1 and BA.2. There is also no currently available evidence suggesting a difference in disease severity from the BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages compared to BA.1.

In the same report, a summary of the vaccine effectiveness of a primary series plus ONE booster vaccination against omicron (VOC) is provided.

“To date, 22 studies from 10 countries have assessed the duration of protection of five vaccines against the Omicron variant…Findings from these studies show reduced VE of COVID-19 primary series vaccines against the Omicron variant for all outcomes (severe disease, symptomatic disease, and infection) than has been observed for the other VOCs. Importantly though, VE estimates against the Omicron variant remain higher for severe disease, in the majority of studies. Booster vaccination substantially improves VE for all outcomes and for all combinations of schedules with estimates available for both primary series and booster vaccination. VE declines more with time after booster vaccination for symptomatic disease and infection than it does for severe disease; however, studies that assess VE of booster vaccination beyond six months are needed to evaluate the longer duration of protection.”

The past seven days saw the Philippines experience a slight bump up in cases. The average daily cases are now at 227 new cases/day, the over-all reproduction rate has stabilized to around 1.1 (+/- 0.05), with different areas/regions/HUCs/provinces seeing different Rt numbers. NCR has a Rt of 1.3 (+/- 0.05) as of 3 days ago. Numbers will continue to slightly bump up but as long as the hospital utilization rate remains low, then the region remains to be at low risk.

In general, the Philippines continues to be at low risk compared to the other ASEAN and some East Asian neighbors.

Based on per capita (cases per million population), Taiwan continued to lead as the cases began to decline but saw a sudden uptick the past few days. The data in ourworldindata.org showed a summary of Indonesia having 0 numbers, but this is due to inaccurate input of data. The 7-day average of Indonesia is at 504 cases/day, and should be right after Vietnam.

The Health Agency announces 297 new cases today, with no added deaths. The National Capital Region owned 151 (51%) of the cases for the day.

Six LGUs in the NCR reported double digits today. This was led by Quezon City with 36 cases. The other with double digits were: Manila 22, Makati 18, Taguig 16, Parañaque 13, Caloocan 11. Both Muntinlupa and Pasig had 7 cases each today. Three LGUs had zero covid. They were: Valenzuela, Malabon and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces/HUCs had double digits: Cavite 12, Rizal 10, and Iloilo 11 (city 1, province 10). Other areas with slightly higher than usual numbers were: Davao City 8, Palawan 6, General Santos City 5, and Baguio City 4.