The Philippines slides down to triple digit cases today, the low Tuesday with 943 new cases reported by the Health Agency. There were 32 added deaths and positivity is at 12.1%. The NCR owned 26.3% of the cases with Quezon City reporting 56 cases today.

The province of Cavite led the haul with 86 cases followed by Davao del Sur 54 and Bulacan 52.

In NCR, those with double digits were: Manila 32, Marikina and Las Piñas 16, Muntinlupa and Pasig 15, Parañaque 14, Caloocan 13, Taguig and Mandaluyong 12 and Pasay City 11.

Remember – these numbers are under reported as fewer people are testing by PCR. The positivity rate is still >10% and the disproportional numbers with the parameters on new cases, positivity rate and deaths is disruptive data.

The Health Agency announces 22% lower cases with 11,995 new cases from October 17-23, 2022 compared to the 15,314 cases for the week of October 10-16, 2022. While this was the good news, the bad news was that the number of deaths increased from 251 the previous week to 272 during the past week with 10% of them occurring between October 10-23 (or considered ‘fresh’, by the government).

Healthcare utilization is also lower, reflecting the milder presentation of COVID-19 among the reported cases. Non-ICU bed utilization was down to 26.4% versus 26.8% the previous week, while ICU bed use was at 23.1% the past week versus 25% the previous week. Severe and critical admission was also down from 690 to 650. Positivity rate average ended at 13.6% for the week of October 17-23, better than the 14.9% positivity rate for the week of October 10-16. Nevertheless, these are still considered high rates and the number of cases in the country (and in many countries around the world) are highly under reported.

There were 1334 new cases and 35 added deaths today. Positivity rate is reset to 12.1% today. NCR owned 26.7% of the cases today as the provinces are now reporting rising cases,

Quezon City continued to haul the cases as the only LGU with triple digits – 101 cases – today. Other LGUs in NCR reported low double digits: Makati 36, Manila 35, Parañaque 28, Taguig 25, Pasig 24, Las Piñas 22, Caloocan 18, Mandaluyong and Marikina 14 each, Muntinlupa 13, Pasay City 11 and Valenzuela 10.

The provinces that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cavite 70, Iloilo 76, Cebu 70, Laguna 62, Bulacan 60 and Davao del Sur 56.

Will we see less than quadruple digits tomorrow?

The Health Agency announces 1585 new cases with 37 added deaths and positivity rate of 13.6%. NCR owned 29.3% of the cases today with 465 cases.

Only Quezon City had triple digits in the nation with 115 cases and only 11 had double digit cases in Mega Manila. Those with double digits were: Manila 51, Makati and Taguig 42 each, Pasig 37, Caloocan 29, Parañaque 27, Marikina 24, Pasay City 22, Las Piñas 21, Mandaluyong and Muntinlupa 15 each.

Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cavite 99, Rizal 62, Laguna 58, Bulacan 63, Iloilo 84, Davao del Sur 80.

Those provinces with higher cases today were: Sarangani 30 and Maguindanao with 17 cases.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Singapore took center stage the past two weeks as it saw rising cases (which are steadily declining) with Omicron XBB sub variant creating a noisy surge in the tiny nation south of the Philippines. While Taiwan had the most number of cases, Singapore and Hong Kong quickly overtook Japan and South Korea this week, to land in second and third spots in terms of number of cases per capita (per million population) among the East Asian nations.

The reproduction rate of Singapore is highest in the region at 1.23 (+/- 0.05), which would mean that they’re not going to see a quick decline in new cases yet. Most of the countries in East Asia will be seeing the same 7-day average number of cases (including the Philippines) as under reporting is an issue in developing countries. Note that it is impossible to have only and average of 1750 daily cases with a positivity rate of 15% and be precise about the numbers. A positivity rate of 15% means that for every 100 people tested, 15 will likely be positive. And with low testing using RT-PCR, many places are not capturing the magnitude of cases.

Notice also the discrepancy in cases to deaths ratio in the Philippines. The Philippines averages around 40 deaths a day, with around 2000 daily new cases, this would put the daily mortality rate at 2%. One of the highest in the region.

The Health Agency announces 1702 new cases with 36 added deaths and a positivity rate of 13.9%. As the cases in NCR continued to fall this week, the cases now shift to the provinces.

NCR owned 29.6% of the cases for the day with 503 added.

The top haulers for the day were: Davao del Sur 111 , Cavite 107, Iloilo 102, and Quezon City 100.

In Mega Manila, double digits came from Manila 64, Parañaque 44, Taguig 42, Makati 36, Pasay City and Las Piñas 29 each, Pasig 28, Valenzuela 25, Caloocan 23, Muntinlupa and Marikina 22 each, Mandaluyong 21 and San Juan 12.

In the provinces, those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 68, Rizal 61, Cebu 86, Bulacan 82.

The Health Agency announces 1984 new cases with 14.1% positivity rate and 37 added deaths today. NCR owned 640 cases of which Quezon City owned >25% of the cases in Mega Manila.

Aside from Quezon City, thirteen other LGUs had double digits: Manila 94, Makati 52, Pasig 49, Taguig 39, Parañaque and Mandaluyong 37 each, Caloocan and Las Piñas 31 each, Marikina 23, Pasay City 22, Muntinlupa 20, Malabon 16 and Valenzuela 12.

Outside of NCR, more provinces are seeing higher cases with three provinces reporting triple digits: Cavite 123, Laguna 116 and Davao del Sur 100. Those that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Rizal 65, Bulacan 94, Iloilo 98, and Cebu 74.

As many provinces are more than under reported than the National Capital Region, the following provinces saw rising cases today: Cagayan de Oro 35, Baguio 27 and Cagayan province 32.

The Health Agency announces 2227 new cases with 14.1% positivity rate and 44 added deaths today. There were 735 cases from the National Capital Region.

Quezon City continued to lead with 177 new cases today and 15 other LGUs with double digits. Those with double digits were: Manila 88, Makati 73, Pasig 62, Taguig and Caloocan 43 each, Parañaque 41, Mandaluyong 31, Las Piñas 30, Pasay City 28, Muntinlupa 26, Valenzuela 25, Marikina 23, Malabon and San Juan 12 each and Navotas 11.

In the provinces, triple digit haulers were: Cavite 134, Rizal 104, and Bulacan 102.

Those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 98, Batangas 61, Pampanga 51, Tarlac 59, Iloilo 89, Cebu 54, Davao del Sur 76.
Provinces that saw higher than usual cases today were: South Cotabato 47, Maguindanao 19 and Leyte 13.

The Health Agency announces 1379 new cases with 44 added deaths and 14.3% positivity rate today. While NCR owned less than 35% of the total cases today, Quezon City was the sole triple digit hauler in the country with 154 cases, accounting for 33% of the 472 cases in Mega Manila.

Lower numbers were seen in other LGUs in NCR with twelve LGUs reporting double digits: Manila and Pasig 47 each, Makati 32, Parañaque 28, Las Piñas 26, Pasay City 25, Caloocan 19, Mandaluyong 18, Marikina 17, Valenzuela 16, Taguig 13 and Malabon 10.

Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases include: Cavite 80, Laguna 59, Rizal 66, Bulacan 57 and Iloilo 94. Iloilo and Davao del Sur are provinces where most the new sub variants of Omicron – XBB and XBC were reported from. That is the reason why Iloilo and Davao del Sur have been seeing a jump in their COVID numbers because of the presence of these sub variants of Omicron. With mobility being at its bare minimum, I would suggest that the public keep their masks on in public crowded areas or indoor areas regardless of ventilation status. These sub variants are descendants of Omicron lineage and while reported to present with mild symptoms, may present differently in those who are unvaccinated, those who have not received at least one booster and those who are immunocompromised but are fully vaccinated.

Unfortunately, the absence of an up-to-date vaccine in the country is sad because many of our Asian neighbors have made a more up-to-date vaccine available. Because resources are scarce, and people do not take advantage of the available resources provided them, it would be a waste of money for the government to purchase vaccines that people are not willing to take. Which does not mean that it should not be made available. Government should tap private sector to provide the vaccine on a pay-for-fee basis for those who want to avail of the up-to-date vaccines and Philhealth should reimburse (through a payment scheme), those who cannot afford but want to get vaccinated with the newer vaccines.

In the meantime, personal responsibility is mandatory for everyone. If you feel sick, make sure you isolate and get tested. If you are positive remain in isolation until the mandatory 7 days (recommended by the Department of Health). Remember – day 0 is the first day you experience symptoms and day 1 is the following day (this is opposed to the DoH counting day 1 as the first day of experiencing symptoms). It is also highly suggested that if the resources are available, to retest before coming out of isolation. If you test negative, I highly recommend you keep your masks on in the community as you move about for 48 hours after the first negative test and then retest on the 48th hour. One should have at least 2 consecutive negative tests before being considered recovered and allowed to remove the mask freely even if there is still cough.

Unfortunately, cough will always be the last to go away and on the average, the cough lingers for 2-4 weeks after a COVID infection.

The Health Agency announces 1196 new cases with 13.8% positivity and 34 added deaths. NCR owned 401 of the cases for the day.

Quezon City led with 93 cases with 11 other LGUs in NCR that had double digits were: Manila 61, Pasig 37, Makati 33, Caloocan 26, Parañaque 24, Taguig 21, Mandaluyong 18, Las Piñas 17, Marikina 16, Pasay City and Muntinlupa 12 each.

No province had triple digit as well. Five provinces had more than 50 but less than 100 cases today. They were: Cavite 88, Laguna 53, Bulacan 55, Iloilo 57 and Davao del Sur 52.

The Health Agency notes that for the week of October 10-16, 2022, the total new cases were 7% higher at 15,314 total cases for this week when compared to the week October 3-9, 2022. There were 251 deaths added, with 33 of the deaths being recent (October 3-16). While the recent deaths was low, this is difficult to correlate with the COVID19 cases considering that deaths are always late reports and the two-week window of the DoH by calling it ‘fresh’ reports should not be applied.

Healthcare utilization remained low with 26.8% for non-ICU bed utilization (lower than the previous 27.2%) and ICU bed utilization at 25% (higher than the previous 24.3%). Positivity rate remains high at around 15% at the end of the week.

The DoH announces 1938 new cases with 37 added deaths and a reset of the positivity rate to 13.4% today. NCR accounted for 675 or 34.5% of the cases for the day.

Quezon City continued to lead with 170 cases today, both nationally and in NCR. Thirteen LGUs reported double digits: Manila 85, Makati 66, Pasig 52, Parañaque 44, Taguig and Mandaluyong 43, Las Piñas 34, Caloocan 30, Muntinlupa 23, Pasay City 21, Marikina 18, Valenzuela 17 and San Juan 10.

Provinces with triple digits were: Cavite 129 and Davao del Sur 103. Those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 67, Rizal 74, Bulacan 84, Tarlac 53, Iloilo 77, Cebu 55 and South Cotabato 58.

Sarangani saw 35 cases today.

The Health Agency announces 2321 new cases with 14.9% positivity and 33 added deaths today. NCR owned 889 of these cases.

Quezon City logged in 208 cases with Manila in second with 121. Thirteen other LGUs reported double digits: Makati 69, Las Piñas 67, Parañaque 60, Taguig 57, Pasig 54, Caloocan 42, Mandaluyong 39, Valenzuela and Muntinlupa 35 each, Marikina 25, San Juan 12 and Malabon 10.

Three provinces outside NCR reported triple digits: Cavite 173, Davao del Sur 124 (with Davao City reporting 53) and Bulacan 120. Those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 94, Rizal 84, Batangas 65, Pampanga 57, Iloilo 73, and Cebu 52.

Two provinces in Mindanao saw higher cases today – Agusan del Sur 24 and Surigao del Sur 16.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The cases in East Asia continue to decline with Taiwan maintaining an average of 45,000 daily cases. Japan and South Korea are seeing significant drop in number of cases with the change in the way reporting is done in these countries. Singapore, however, is seeing a doubling in the number of cases apparently stemming from the Omicron sub variant XBB.

On a per capita basis (cases per million population), Taiwan and Singapore lead with quadruple digits. Note, however, that many of the cases are under reported due to reduced surveillance (no more contact tracing), and low rates of testing (using lateral flow assays instead of PCR). Protocols need to be reviewed and there should be more studies aimed at looking at the infectious disease period because the challenge with getting COVID19 now, is not how severe it can get (because of the availability of vaccines and treatment), but on how long should patients stay in isolation.