It was expected. You should not be surprised anymore. It will be quite awhile before we see quadruple digits. In the meantime, we need to get used to the more than five digit numbers in cases in the Philippines.
The Health Agency reports 20,310 new cases, our second highest in the pandemic, pushing the active cases close to 160,000.
On September 1, more than 67,000 tests were done with another all time high in positivity rate at 27.4%.
With 193 deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.80%.
Four regions reported quadruple digits – NCR, CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Davao Region. NCR plus accounted for 62% of the cases in the country for the day.
Cavite, Laguna and Bulacan had quadruple digits on a provincial level.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty LGUs with most cases today. Three cities in Cavite, 1 from Laguna and 1 from Rizal were among the LGUs in the CALABARZON region in the top 20 list. Iloilo City is back in the top twenty today as Western Visayas reported a rise in cases,
It was the usual Thursday. As expected, the day after low Tuesdays and Wednesdays would be a more realistic Thursday before going into the reality check weekend.
The Health Agency announces 16,621 new cases, bringing the active cases back to more than 146,000.
On August 31, 2021, more than 60,000 tests done showed a positivity of 27%. This means that there are still more cases out there, and that we will continue to see a climb of cases (even if it has slowed down).
There were 148 new deaths reported, bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.81%.
Is NCR on the rise? Of the over 16,000 cases today, NCR accounted for more than 30% of the share – the highest in this latest surge. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are second and third, as usual.
Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas – all provinces in Region IVA – are the top three provinces for the day.
Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. This, as the Department of Health announces, that all 18 regions in the Philippines now report delta variant present in each and every region. Other cities in the top 20 include 3 in Cavite, 2 in Laguna, Davao City, and Cebu City.
OCTA MONITORING REPORT
While we are still in shock and awe with the rising cases in the country, it is a bit of good news to know that the reproduction number is slightly declining. However, that does not mean that our cases are going down. Slowing down is not the same as going down. Notice that the percentage of new cases actually went up in the NCR (12% higher than the previous week).
The incidence rate for NCR is at 33.2 per 100,000 population with a positivity rate of 24% (not very far from the national positivity rate of 25%). Notice in the report provided below, that 14 of 17 LGUs have ADAR at more than 25/100,000 (critical level), with Pateros, San Juan and Makati at more than 50/100,000.
The LGU with the highest reproduction number is San Juan at 1.69 followed by Taguig (1.65). Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR had reproduction numbers more than 1.4, with Quezon City and Manila having the lowest R (despite the higher number of cases).
As additional information to the reader, is the summary of total cases per month since the pandemic began from January 2020-August 2021.
Notice that August and September 2020 were the worst months for the year 2020. The most cases in 2020 was seen in the month of August with 127,207 cases. It was also the same month that saw the most number of deaths in a month for year 2020.
Year 2021 isn’t over yet. But March saw a significant rise in cases, peaking in April and slowing down from May to July. August 2021 was a month to reckon with as the PH saw 406,744 cases or more than 3 times the cases of the August 2020. In the first 8 months of 2021 alone, we had almost 4x the total cases of the whole year 2020. Even the total number of deaths were twice that of 2020, and 2021 is not over yet.
With the Health Agency announcing 14,216 new cases today, the country officially crosses the 2M mark. The active cases are down to a little more than 140,000. However, with more than 50,000 tests done on August 30 showing a positivity rate of 26.4%, this may mean that we may still see more than 20,000 cases any day this week.
New deaths announced today was 86. The case fatality rate for outcomes is at 1.81%.
While the ICU utilization rate is lower, this not translate to the actual condition on the ground because hospitals have declared full capacity because many of the healthcare workers are also down with COVID-19 or under quarantine. While beds may not be physically full, there is no way that patients can be accommodated in a hospital that is understaffed.
NCR accounted for close to 29% of the cases today. Together with CALABARZON and Central Luzon, the NCR plus now contributes to almost 2/3 of the cases in the country.
Cavite continued to lead among provinces, this time with Laguna and Rizal in second and third rank.
Of the 17 LGUs in NCR, 12 made it to the top twenty today. Four cities in Cavite, 1 in Laguna and 1 in Rizal were also in the top twenty. Davao City is in 4th.
With 13,827 new cases released by the Health Agency today, the number of active cases are still over 145,000. And we are only a little more than 10,000 cases shy of hitting the 2 million mark.
On August 29, close to 50,000 tests were done with over one in four testing positive.
New deaths today were 118. This puts the case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.82%.
The low Tuesday is a mirror of the low testing output on a Sunday. The NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon (NCR plus) continue to contribute quadruple digits with close to 60% of the cases in the country.
Cavite continued to lead on a provincial level. The other provinces in region IVA included in the top ten are Laguna, Rizal and Batangas.
Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 list, but it is Muntinlupa City that continued to climb the charts, landing in fifth rank among cities with most cases in the country today. Six cities from CALABARZON are in the top 20 as well – 4 from Cavite, 1 in Laguna and 1 in Rizal.
Finally, we broke all records. And we have not peaked yet.
The last Monday of August, the Health Agency reports 22,366 new cases. This pushes the active cases to nearly 150,000.
Last August 28, with over 65,000 tests done, 27.5% were positive.
There were 222 new deaths reported, putting the case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.82%.
Hospital utilization for intensive care units is above critical levels both nationally and in the National Capital Region.
With more than 22,000 cases today, NCR contributed to 1/4 of today’s cases (a little less than 25%). Seven regions (together with NCR) reported quadruple digits. A first in the country since the pandemic began. These other regions were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley and Davao Region.
On a provincial level, the cases in Cavite province and Laguna continue to climb. Cavite had almost 2,000 cases today.
Among LGUs, while 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20, it is Davao City that is seeing a significant rise in cases as it ranks second over-all in todays rankings. Six LGUs from CALABARZON are in the top 20 list as well.
This saga is still evolving as the Philippines landed in 5th in the world with most cases for 08.30.2021.
It was a shocker week. With record highs, the Philippines now overtakes the Netherlands to sit on the 20th spot in terms of most number of cases of COVID19 in the world. However, per capita (cases per million population, yes we need to consider the fact that not all countries have the same population), the Philippines ranks number 128 in the world with 17,397 cases/Million population. The Netherlands is a country with a population of 17.5M. It’s COVID cases per capita is 112,598 cases/Million population or almost 8 times that of the Philippines.
The Health Agency today reports 18,528 new cases. The active cases are up at more than 143,000.
On August 27, there were more than 66,000 tests done with a positivity rate of 27.9%.
Additional 101 deaths were announced today and the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.84%.
While NCR stayed in the lead, it was CALABARZON that is seeing rising cases compared to previous surges. The NCR plus bubble owned more than 11,000 of the 18000 plus cases today.
Cavite and Laguna continue to pour in the cases on a provincial level.
Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR land in the top 20, while increases LGUs in Region IVA – 5 in Cavite and 1 in Laguna – are among the top 20 list.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
The country sees an upward trajectory in cases, and deaths as it hits all time highs in number of daily new cases for COVID-19. On August 28, it marked an all time high of close to 20,000 cases since the pandemic began. But that isn’t the bothersome news alone. Almost 2/3 of the cases are found in three regions – National Capital Region, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon. This triumvirate is otherwise called the NCR plus bubble. Both Regions IVA and III are annexed to the epicenter, Mega Manila. While there is a large population in the capital of the Philippines, those who live in the NCR know that there is literally a hairline that separates the boundaries of this region from that of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan. Many of those who come to work in NCR have established suburban homes in these contiguous regions.
While there are more tests being done, with the last few days exceeding 70,000 tests/day, the positivity rate continued to climb. On Aug 28, it recorded the highest positivity rate for tests done on August 26 – 27.5%. This is alarming because most of the patients that do get tested are mostly those who are symptomatic or hospitalized. Because testing is out-of-the-pocket in the country, many (if not most) will not get tested (lest more quarantined( even when they are exposed to close contacts. The vicious cycle of under testing, inability to do adequate tracing end up with people who need to be in quarantine, squandering in the streets.
On a regional basis, note how these countries are faring against each other in the 7-day average cases. While Japan leads, in the the 7-day average, it is noteworthy that Singapore is seeing a rise in its cases as well. While it only reports a 7-day average of 75 cases, this is a small country with 5.9Million people. Based on per capita, Singapore actually has 11,378 cases/M population compared to say, Japan, with a population of 126Million and a per capita of 11,199 cases/M population. Smaller nations like Singapore, Israel, Hong Kong, Taiwan, New Zealand, etc. cannot afford tiny increments of cases. To have these nations have equal number of daily cases as in the Philippines or Indonesia, would totally decimate the healthcare system of the countries.
In the interpretation of how well the country is doing, one should focus on the effective reproduction number. Reproduction numbers tell you how well the pandemic is being handled and how the virus has vastly spread in the country. Notice the sudden fluctuation in R for Singapore. Among Asian countries, it is now up at 1.32. Indonesia, the erstwhile leader during the delta surge has managed to bring down its cases and sustained it remarkably for the last month. Its R is down at 0.7. If the R of the Philippine stays on course, we will continue to see increasing numbers but a slowing down in the rise. Nevertheless, it is still bad news because a steady R means that we’re not going anywhere anytime soon. And the possibility that this could go up, rather than take a downward trajectory is not remote.
Summarized below is the vaccination rate (first and full doses) of many countries and the variants that are circulating. The Philippines has around 16% of the population fully vaccinated. And while that is better than the data of Taiwan that has only 3.6% of its population vaccinated, it still needs to play catch-up compared to our ASEAN neighbors whose vaccination rates have accelerated over the past weeks, including the administration of ‘booster’ vaccines to front line workers who initially received inactivated COVID-19 vaccines as well. Cambodia, a country of 17M people and with a GDP of $4000 as of 2017, has already vaccinated more than 60% of its population. This compared to the Philippines with a GDP more than twice that of Cambodia, with vaccine coverage of 20% of its population.
With high positivity in spite of more tests conducted, it was eventually going to come down to this.
The country records a record high of close to 20,000 new cases today. In spite of the more than 19,000 recoveries, the 19,441 new cases is a testament to a variant out of control and an outbreak that is surging and will last for quite sometime, as businesses become unsettled with lockdown extension to September 7.
The highest number of tests ever done was August 26 with close to 72,000 tests yielding a positivity rate of 27.5%! This positivity rate is also a record high. Hypothetically if we did 100,000 tests daily, this would likely bring down the positivity rate to 24%. Meaning more than 24,000 would test positive. To bring down the positivity rate to at least 10%, we most likely would need to test 230,000-250,000 per day, a feat that would be impossible at this point.
Additional 167 deaths reported, brings us to deaths passing the 33,000 mark. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.84%.
Today’s record breaking total also broke records in regions, provinces and LGUs.
While NCR was steady with 26% of the total cases, that amounted to more than 5,000 cases more to Mega Manila. Today, however, FIVE regions now report quadruple digits, with Ilocos Region overtaking Central Visayas in the count. More than 63% of the cases are from NCR plus bubble.
The rise in cases is also being seen on a provincial scale, with Cavite, Laguna and Bulacan reporting more than 1,000 cases apiece.
On the LGU level, 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities with most cases. Four cities in Cavite and two in Laguna joined the top 20. Davao City is seeing an increase in cases as it continued to debut in the top five list.
The second highest cases reported since the pandemic began, the Health Agency reports, 17,447 new cases today. But with only 6,772 recoveries, the active cases jumps to more than 140,000.
The highest number of tests done was reported last August 25, but the positivity rate was 26.1% in more than 70,000 tests.
Total new deaths added was 113, and the case fatality ratio is at 1.85%.
Hospital utilization and ICU rate is at 75% both nationally and in the NCR.
The NCR reports close to 5,000 new cases today, as CALABARAZON, Central Luzon and Central Visayas declare quadruple digits for the day. For the second day, all the rest of the regions report triple digits. The NCR plus bubble is seeing an increase in the share of cases for the country with NCR accounting for 28% today.
Cavite and Laguna now have quadruple digits on a provincial level.
Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases today. The surprise LGUs are Davao City which saw a jump in cases overnight, landing in third and Bacoor (in Cavite) that landed in fourth. Three Cavite cities and two Laguna cities are in the top twenty as well.
With 16,313 new cases today, we are 800 cases shy of 1.9 Million COVID-19 cases. Will we end August breaching the 2M mark?
With todays new cases, the total active breaches 130,000.
There were more than 65,000 tests done on August 24 or around 25% positivity. This meant that one in every 4 tested that day were positive.
New deaths announced totaled 236, with a case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.85%.
Healthcare utilization is up both nationally and in the NCR. ICU utilization rate in the NCR is reported at 77% today.
NCR accounts for 26% of the total cases today. Other regions with quadruple digit reports were CALABARZON (22%), Central Luzon (15%), and Central Visayas (6.7%). All regions reported more than 100 new cases today.
Among provinces, while Cavite raked in quadruple digits, the provinces of Laguna, Rizal and Batangas made it to the top ten.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities in the country for the day. Three LGUs in Cavite also were in the top 20 list.
OCTA MONITORING REPORT
Today’s report highlights Central Luzon or Region III, that is consistently third among regions with most cases in the country.
It’s a typical Wednesday. Around 10% more than the low Tuesdays. But it’s the highest recorded new cases for a Wednesday so far.
The Health Agency reports 13,573 new cases today. And with more than 15,000 recoveries, the active cases are slightly lower but still more than 125,000 in number. The total COVID-19 cases is now past 1.88M and the Philippines will most likely breach the 2M mark tomorrow at the earliest and Friday at the latest.
Of the over 46,000 tests done last August 23, 25.5% were positive. This means that over the past weeks, from every 4 patients that get tested, 1 will most likely test positive.
There are 228 new deaths reported. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.85%.
Healthcare utilization and ICU rates are still past 70% for both the NCR and national level.
NCR continued to own between 25-27% of the total cases for COVID-19 in the country today. Notice the variability in the cases in the other regions, except for CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The top three regions – Mega Manila, Region IVA and Region III – account for 60% of the daily cases.
Cavite and Laguna, two provinces in CALABARZON, and are contiguous to NCR, remain the top contributors to cases in the country and in that region.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR make it to the top twenty cities with most cases for the day. Surprisingly in fifth spot is Davao City. Four LGUs in Cavite also are in the top 20 list.
OCTA MONITORING REPORT
The NCR averages 25% the total daily COVID cases in this surge. Together with CALABARZON and Central Luzon, these three regions account for half the daily new cases in the country.
While the number of cases continued to increase, with NCR averaging more than 4,000 cases daily from August 18-24 (13% up than the previous week), the reproduction number has slowly declined to 1.53 (on an average). The table below shows the cities with critical ADAR (incidence rate) as highlighted in red, and the high risk in darker orange highlight. Notice that while Caloocan, Marikina, Manila and Quezon City show higher cases this week compared to last, their ADAR is lower because of the population size (based on per capita and not number of cases).
Only Navotas and Malabon saw a decrease in rate of cases, while Las Piñas was flat (no change). On an individual LGU level, the reproduction number was still above 1.4 in all NCR LGUs except for Navotas whose Rt dropped to 1.37.
Meanwhile, in the Mindanao area, the cases seem to ease up (better than the NCR) as the reproduction number in Cagayan de Oro eases up to 1.15 from a previous 1.38. This is positive development and if the trend continues the next two weeks, there will be a significant decline in cases in CDO soon. Malaybalay and Valencia in Bukidnon are still seeing critical ADARs, but the hospital utilization is down in most provinces except for Cagayan de Oro, whose healthcare status is still at critical levels.
While Davao City still sees a rise in cases week on week, that change is minimal and the ICU utilization is down from critical to high risk level.
Relative Joy 