Relative Joy

With the exodus of many people from the National Capital Region this Holy Week beginning today, the Health Agency announces 233 new cases and 113 additional deaths on Holy Wednesday.

The NCR owned only 30% of today’s total cases. Only one LGU in NCR reported double digit – the City of Parañaque with 13 cases. All other LGUs reported single digit numbers with Pateros reporting zero covid today.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces had double digit numbers: Cavite 12, Bulacan 12, and Iloilo 20 (province 17, city 3).

As the Holy Week exodus in the various transport sectors build up, let’s not forget to make sure that everyone keeps the health protocols at bay. Distance, Mask, Air, and Wash!

Have a blessed Holy Week everyone! And stay safe!

It’s a Tuesday.

The Health Agency announces 205 new cases with 1 added death today. The NCR accounted for more than 37% (76 cases) of the total cases today. The positivity rate (7 day average) inches up by 0.1% at 1.7%.

Three LGUs in NCR had double digits. They were: City of Manila 16, Pasay City 11 and Quezon City 10. While the other LGUs had single digit numbers, three LGUs had zero covid. These LGUs were: Valenzuela, Muntinlupa and Marikina.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces reported double digits: Cavite 19, and Iloilo 10 (province 10, 4 city).

The week from April 4-10, 2022 closed with 1906 new cases or a 7-day average of 272 daily cases for the Philippines. None of the new cases were severe or critical. With the tremendous backlog of deaths, 428 deaths were added to the list.

Healthcare utilization was at very low risk. Surprisingly, even if the non-ICU bed utilization was at 16.4% (down from 16.7% the week prior), the ICU bed utilization is up at 18.4% (from 16.5% the week before). And this is a wonder, because according the Health Agency, there were ZERO CASES of severe or critical this week. Notice that last week, the ICU bed utilization was 492 beds (of 2990) but has increased to 542 (of 2951) beds. Severe and critical admissions the other week was 692, but is up at 707 this week (which does not really add up to the ICU bed utilized as well) and the data of the DoH that there are ZERO cases of severe or critical this week. Even if the severe and critical were carried over from last week, there was only ONE severe/critical COVID19 case the week prior. This method of reporting by the Health Agency is confusing and is exactly the kind of infographic that should be avoided as there is no continuity in data week on week.

Vaccination is a bit up but the individuals who availed of booster doses are down from more than 329,000 the week prior, to 322,000 this week (April 4-10).

The Health Agency announces 273 new cases with 8 added deaths today. More than 40% of today’s cases are from NCR.

Four LGUs in NCR reported double digit numbers. They are: Manila 17, Makati 16, Parañaque and Quezon City 14 apiece. The rest of the remaining LGUs reported single digits with Navotas having zero covid.

Outside of the NCR, the provinces/HUCs (highly urbanized cities) with double digits were: Cavite 28, Rizal 11, Cebu 12 (city 7, province 5), and Davao City 10

The Health Agency announces 277 new cases with 39 added deaths today. The NCR accounted for 37% of today’s cases.

Cases in NCR with double digits was led by Caloocan City with 20 cases, followed by Pasay City 15, Manila 13 and Quezon City 10. While the rest had single digit numbers, 3 LGUs reported zero covid. The zero covid LGUs are: Pateros, Malabon and Navotas.

Outside of NCR, CALABARZON had the most provinces with double digit numbers. These are: Cavite, Laguna and Batangas with 13 each, and Rizal with 11. Iloilo had 12 cases (10 province, 2 city) and Cebu 11 (3 city, 8 province).

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

While we did see a very slight decline in cases, the data of the Philippines should be interpreted cautiously. That’s because unlike many other countries that continue to push for testing, the limited testing capacity OR the likelihood that an person with symptoms of COVID19 will get tested with RT-PCR (so that it is documented by the Health Agency) is very low.

In addition, the trough has more or less been reached in the country. The average cases will fall at around 300-400, as the reproduction number bumps up to 0.8 (+/- 0.05) as of April 6, 2022. Notice that the effective reproduction number has been climbing since February 12, 2022.

Of course, this is expected as the economy reopens and in many areas, particularly in highly urbanized cities, is in full swing. While there is nothing wrong with reviving an economy, in order to balance that with continuing to control and the keep the cases of COVID19 in the country at very low numbers, the public is advised to maintain minimum health standards and it is imperative that those who remain unvaccinated get vaccinated, while those that are eligible for booster vaccines, should get vaccinated. It is a moral obligation we each have to others in the community.

The death rate is erratic as the Health Agency continued to reporting lagging deaths. The daily death numbers are not reflective of the actual deaths for the day.

In East Asia, one will see that based on number of cases, South Korea continues to lead in the region (as well as in the world) but has managed to bring the cases lower. All other countries have lower reported cases this week, except for China and Taiwan, which have maintained their zero covid policies. Zero covid initiatives will not work with omicron variant. And that’s a fact that each government should realize.

On a per capita basis (based on population size), South Korea maintained the lead. Only Indonesia and the Philippines has single digit daily new confirmed cases per million population.

Notice however, the reproduction rate. This dizzying graph below shows Taiwan with R at 1.49 (cases are now at more than 500 daily) with China, Thailand and Japan continue to have an R>1.0. The Philippines, which used to have the lowest R is now up at 5th spot with R of 0.8 (and was even 0.95 a few days before).

With the exodus of the people during the Holy Week, mass gatherings due to the campaign sorties and the upcoming election fever, the country is ripe for an increase in the number of COVID19 cases. The borders are open, the business is back to normal, and a rise in numbers is inevitable.

Life goes on…

The 7-day average positivity rate is up at 1.7% (from a previous 1.6%). While 0.1% may not matter to some, it does matter because it is the 7-day average (not the daily positivity rate). This means that the previous days, there were more people testing positive (based on the individuals tested). While it is still below the 5% acceptable positivity rate of the WHO, we need to make sure that positivity rate remains low. Remember, the Philippines does not do routine contact tracing anymore and that RT-PCR tests are prioritized to certain sectors.

The Health Agency reports 302 new cases and 70 added deaths today.

The National Capital Region owned 111 of the 302 cases today. It was Pasay City that led with 21 cases (and has the highest ADAR in the NCR at 3.91/100,000 population), with three other LGUs with double digits. They are: Manila 19, Caloocan 14, and Quezon City 12. All other LGUs report single digit numbers with Pateros reporting zero covid.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces/HUCs report double digits: Cavite 15, Laguna 13, Iloilo 16 (13 province, 3 city), and Davao City 19.

The multiple holidays and upcoming campaign sorties and election fever provide the best scenario for a possible increase in cases.

Gentle reminder to everyone: mask up, keep a distance, stay in well ventilated places, wash your hands always, get vaccinated if you have not and get a booster for those who are eligible (especially those with comorbids and the elderly population).

If you have ANY symptoms for COVID-19, DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CONGREGATE with other people. Stay home, and get tested.

We are still in the midst of a pandemic.

The Health Agency announces 290 new cases today with 69 deaths added. While the numbers stay below the 300 mark, the public is reminded that this is an undercount of the actual number of people who have COVID19, since testing is now limited and contact tracing is absent.

The bulk of today’s cases come from the National Capital Region (as usual), with 115 cases or 40% of the total share.

Seven LGUs in NCR report double digits today. This is led by the City of Manila and Pasay City with 16 cases apiece. The others include: Quezon City 14, Makati 13, Pasig and Caloocan City 12 each, and Parañaque 10. The rest of the 10 LGUs report single digit cases with Muntinlupa and Pateros reporting zero cases.

Outside of the NCR, the following provinces report double digits: Cavite 14, Laguna 12, Bataan and Tarlac 10, Iloilo 14 (province 9, city 5), and Cebu 12 (city 8, province 4).

In terms of ADAR, the following LGUs in the NCR have >1.0/100,000 population: Pasay City 3.67, San Juan 2.28, Makati 2.08, Parañaque 1.72, and the city of Manila 1.36.

Only one area outside of the NCR has an ADAR >1/100,000 population – Iloilo City 1.13.

Provinces with the highest fatality rates to date are: Aurora Province 5.3%, Cebu province 5.1%, Guimaras 4.6%, Zambales and Davao de Oro 4% apiece, Oriental Mindoro 3.8%, Puerto Princesa 3.6%, Iligan City 3.7%, Negros Occidental 3.4%, Cadiz and Antique 3.3%, Cagayan province 3.1%, and Davao del Norte and Surigao del Sur 3% each. All other regions and provinces with fatality rates < 3% are not listed here.

The Health Agency reports 278 new cases today but the death reports, which are lagging data are piling up with 169 added today.

100 of the cases today are from NCR. Four LGUs in NCR reported double digits. These are: City of Manila 21, Pasay City 17, Quezon City 14, and Caloocan City 12. All other LGUs reported single digit numbers with Navotas and Pateros reporting zero covid.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces reported double digits: Cavite 12, Bulacan 10, and Iloilo 23 (province 21, 2 city).

The Health Agency announces 265 new cases and 52 deaths were added today.

Of the 265 cases today, 78 or 29% are from the NCR.

Only two LGUs in NCR reported double digit cases – City of Manila 14 and Quezon City 12. All the remaining LGUs had single digit numbers with 2 LGUs reporting zero covid. The LGUs in Mega Manila with no covid cases in today’s report are: Valenzuela and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, the provinces with double digit cases were: Cavite 19, Laguna 10, Iloilo 18 (15 province, 3 city), and Misamis Occidental 14.

The Health Agency announces 225 new cases with 5 additional deaths today. The good news is that the positivity rate drops to an all time low of 1.6% (7-day average).

NCR accounted for 36% of the country’s cases today with 81 cases. Three LGUs had double digits and was led by Quezon City with 22, followed by Manila 16 and Caloocan City 11. The rest of the LGUs saw single digit numbers, with the following LGUs reporting zero covid cases in Mega Manila today: Mandaluyong, Marikina, Malabon, and Navotas.

Outside of the NCR, only two provinces had double digits: Cavite 10, and Iloilo 14 (all province).

All other provinces and HUCs (highly urbanized cities) reported either single digit numbers or zero covid.

It was clearly a good week, except for the slight bump up of cases yesterday 04.03.2022.

The Health Agency announces a total of 2679 new cases for the week of March 28-April 3, 2022. This number is only 2% lower than the previous week, putting the 7-day average to 382 cases a day (due to the double number of daily cases yesterday).

Of the 329 deaths added the past week, 116 (35.3%) occurred in the month of March. The rest were backlogs from March 2021 to February 2022.

ICU bed and non-ICU bed utilization remain at very low risk, while there are still 692 cases that are severe or critical in category admitted to the hospital.

Vaccination coverage of the over-all target population stands at 73.47%, with less than half a million getting fully vaccinated last week and a little more than 300,000 getting a booster or additional dose.

The 690 cases yesterday April 03, 2022 were mostly backlogs. Only 328 were recent cases.

Today, the Health Agency announces 276 new cases and 22 added deaths.

The NCR owned 82 of the cases today, with four LGUs reporting double digits. This was led by City of Manila 14, Caloocan City13, Pasay City 12, and Quezon City 11. The rest were single digits with 5 LGUs reporting zero covid. The LGUs with zero covid today are: Mandaluyong, Muntinlupa, Navotas, San Juan and Pateros.

Out side of NCR, the following provinces had double digit numbers: Batangas 16, Laguna 13 and Cavite 10. Iloilo had 10 (7 province, 3 city), while Cebu had 18 (7 city, 11 province). Misamis Occidental is the only province in Mindanao with double digits at 11.