With close to 7K cases on 05.31.2021, will we land in the top ten again?

The bad is news is that we landed tenth among all countries in the world with MOST new cases, yesterday. The number of cases today and yesterday were just a few hundred cases, as the Health Agency announces 6,684 new cases today. This is based on reports from May 29, where 13.7% of the close to 45,000 individuals tested were positive. The positivity rate has really not gone down and is unsettling in the sense that the only way we will be seeing lower cases is when the positivity rate drops. (See the analysis of positivity rate per province or region below as reported by OCTA Research).

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases now approach 55,000.

And with 107 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes remains steady at 1.78% as the Philippines ends the month of May 2021 with 1.23M total cases since the start of the pandemic.

NCR swapped with CALABARZON for the lead today but both regions reported less than 1,000 cases each. NCR owned less than 15% of the total cases. NCR + CALABARZBON + Central Luzon accounted for only 39% of the total cases for the day. Again, ALL regions in the country continued to report triple digits.

Quezon City continues to lead Mega Manila and nationally with more than 200 new cases. Nine of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Negros Occidental took the lead over Laguna.

Other cities outside of NCR among the top ten cities with most cases were: Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod City, Davao City, Iloilo City and Zamboanga City.

The updated OCTA Research Monitoring report for May 31, 2021, shows that while the downward trend in NCR plus bubble continues, it has actually slowed down. The national reproduction number is up at 1.02.

In the NCR, the numbers took a dramatic decline over the past weeks. Last week, the decline was only 1%. Other areas like Cavite and Laguna saw increases. This pushes the reproduction number of NCR up at 0.69 from a previous low os 0.54.

The full report of OCTA Research is provided below. Notice the tremendous increases in certain regions/provinces. While the cases may have decreased in Palawan, the decrease is not reflective of the actual nature of the positive cases as the positivity rate there is 53%. Or 1 in every 2 people tested, being positive. Camarines Sur has the highest positivity rate and up at 90% increase in cases. Isabela and Cagayan have more than 100% rise in cases and positivity rates that are more than 25%.

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