The good news and the bad news on 07.22.2021

The good news first.

Remarkably, the Health Agency reported fewer cases today compared to yesterday with 5,828 new cases for more than 47,000 tests done on July 20 and 12% positivity.

The other good news is that they reported only 17 deaths. Bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes down to 1.82%.

Of course, there will be some bad news.

As the new cases are more than the recoveries, active cases are back at more than 50,000.

There is an increase in ICU bed utilization in the NCR (up from a previous 42%) at 44%. Yesterday, Mega Manila is back on top with quadruple digits.

Let’s remember that these are data for a single day. The 7-days moving average is up at more than 5,500 per day compared to a previous week low of less than 5,000 new daily cases. As more delta variant cases are reported (retroactively), the data this week and next week will be crucial in determining how the variant is unfolding in the country.

It an unusual day yesterday (maybe because Tuesday was a holiday? or perhaps we had really lesser cases), Mega Manila continued to lead among regions with close to 1,000 cases. But the Health Agency is back with the reporting system where it is raining unknowns.

In the National Capital Region, the unknowns led by a mile with 227. If we do not know which locality they belong to – then that would mean we have 227 index cases where contact tracing would not even be possible. Go figure!

On a provincial level, it is Cebu that continued to lead, explaining also why they top the list of LGUs among cities/municipalities with most cases. Seven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top twenty with most cases, and while three of Cebu cities are in the top twenty, it is Cebu City and Lapu Lapu city that sit pat on first and third rank for the day. Of course, this data is biased by the fact that 227 individuals reported to have positive COVID-19 tests belong to NCR.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

The 6,560 cases yesterday was disturbing. Of course, with disturbing news is bad news.

The NCR reproduction number has increased to 1.15 for the period July 15-21, 2021. This rise was the same pattern seen at the beginning of the second surge last February 12-19, 2021 when the Rt jumped from 1.06 to 1.31.

This is a serious concern and should be taken seriously, considering that the Department of Health has been reporting and changing reports regarding the presence of Delta variant in the country. They cannot keep backtracking on data because contact tracing based on late information is an exercise in futility and potentially disastrous. It is the anatomy of another surge.

One thought on “The good news and the bad news on 07.22.2021

  1. jeangunohomehealthcarephcom July 23, 2021 / 9:46 am

    Really appreciate your updates, Dr. Benji, as everything is in a capsule with analysis. I trust your epidemiologic mind, your logic and intuition!

    Liked by 1 person

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