A new high, the update to the data, the OCTA update and the data of 09.09.2021

Let’s start with the data yesterday that was updated today. Aside from the 12,751 new cases yesterday, the health agency reports that there was an additional 5,132 new cases (making the real total at 17,883 cases for 09.08.2021). An additional 41 recoveries were recorded, but apparently no new deaths added.

With the glitch fixed, the Health Agency waited till 830PM to upload the bad news. We have a new record high of 22,820 cases. And the 12,000 or so recoveries was not enough to avert the higher cases. This now pushes the active cases past 166,000 and will surely place the country within the top ten countries with highest new cases in the world tomorrow.

Today’s cases push the Philippines one notch higher, passing Peru for the 19th rank in the world with most COVID19 cases.

With close to 75,000 cases, the positive rate is also at a record high – 29.4% or 1 in every 3 people tested on September 7, tested positive.

The silver lining was the low new deaths of 61. This puts the case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.74%.

While NCR reported more than 6,615 new case, we were peppered with the unknowns, where 1,696 of these were tagged an unknown LGU. It is either another “glitch” in data entry or really sloppy collection of data where 26% of the total cases in NCR had unknown locations. Five other regions reported quadruple digits as well – CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Ilocos, Central Visayas and Cagayan Valley. Ironically, there were no unknowns on a regional level.

Cavite, Laguna and Bulacan reported quadruple digits on a provincial level, to top the provinces for the day.

In spite of the more than 1,600 unknown localities of the NCR cases, 11 of 16 LGUs were in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day. If there were more accurate data, most likely more LGUs in the NCR would have been in the top 20. Six LGUs from CALABARZON were also in the top 20 list.


While there seems to be a minot downward trend in new cases in some LGUs in NCR, it is volatile at the moment. Given the fact that there is some resistance to continued lockdowns and not enough vaccines have been rolled out (remember the target is not 70% but should be 90% of the eligible population) in Mega Manila. There is also paucity of data among breakthrough infections, but this is understandable as this is under reported.

Nevertheless, the ADAR (incidence rate) remains critical in ALL the 17 LGUs in NCR, with Pateros, San Juan, Makati, Parañaque and Pasig having the highest. Bed utilization is critical in Pateros, Malabon and Caloocan. And the reproduction rate is highest in Mandaluyong at 1.59. Those included in the critical level are: San Juan, Marikina, Pasig, Pateros and Parañaque.

Navotas saw a significant drop in rate of cases (-31%) and had the lowest reproduction at 1.04.

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