With 14,286 new cases on 09.30.2021, are we finally seeing a decline in COVID-19 cases?

We end the month of September on a high note. There were less cases today than expected, which is actually a good sign that we most likely will not see the 20K mark anytime soon.

More than 60,000 tests done last September 28 showed 22% positivity. While the positivity rate is still high, it is lower than the previous positivity rates of close to 30%. In addition, the positivity rate is also much lower in the NCR, the epicenter of the pandemic.

There are 130 new deaths announced today.

NCR accounted for 23% of today’s cases with 3,241 reported. Four regions report four digit numbers: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and Ilocos Region. All the rest, except for the BARMM report triple digits, on a day when many regions report lower cases which may not necessarily reflect the real number of cases but a delay in reporting.

The provinces of Benguet and Cagayan top the provincial level.

Among cities and municipalities, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR remain the haulers for the top 20 list. Baguio City, Davao City and Zamboanga City are among the top 10 cities with most cases for the day.


The last week saw a continuous downtrend of COVID-19 cases in NCR, with average cases ranging from 20-23% of the total cases in the country. This meant that there was a general decline of 17% from the previous week. The reproduction number (R) moves down to 0.87 from 0.94-0.99. The positivity rate in the capital has also decreased to 18% (from a previous 21%).

While NCR remains at high risk, six LGUs are considered moderate risk based on the indicators used by OCTA – Incidence rate, R, hospital bed utilization and ICU utilization.

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