With 15,566 cases on 01.10.2021, we are seeing a downward trend. Can we sustain this?

With a little more than 15,000 cases announced by the Health Agency today, and the more than 23,000 recoveries, the active cases are now down to 130,000.

With more than 63,000 tests done last September 29 (not October as in the infographic), the percent positive is at 21.3% (lower than the past days but still high).

The Health Agency reports 199 new deaths today.

The NCR accounted for almost 4,000 new cases today (25% of national total), with Quezon City leading the haul. Quezon City alone was responsible for more than 28% of the cases in Mega Manila. As a matter of fact, today’s total was almost equivalent to the total of the cities in 2nd to 4th rank for the day.

Other regions with quadruple digits include the annexed regions to NCR – CALABARZON and Central Luzon – and Ilocos Region. NCR plus had close to 54% of the total cases today. All other regions reported triple digits. From the data, it will be awhile before the whole country sees four digit numbers UNLESS the three key regions in NCR plus bring their cases down and account for less than 25% of the total daily cases in the country. A feat that will take quite sometime to achieve.

Rizal, Laguna, Cavite – provinces in Region IVA led the haul for the day.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities, while the rest were from major HUCs in the country.


Featured today are the two regions that are annexed to Mega Manila. It is important that the cases in these two contiguous areas drop, together with NCR. That is because they share a very thin border and a very wide base for leisure, recreation and home. Many of those that work in the national capital have established homes outside of their work area.

Managing the pandemic is not about concentrating all responses to the epicenter alone. Notice that when NCR has increasing numbers, CALABARZON and Central Luzon see a concomitant rise in cases, and vice-versa.

While CALABARZON shows a high positivity rate compared to the NCR, it is showing a gradual (and hopefully sustained) decline in cases. Many of the ICUs in the hospitals in these areas are the reason for the spill over of cases in the region into the National Capital Region, hence, overwhelming the healthcare resources of NCR. Hopefully, with the declining trend, we should be able to also ease the burden of the NCR sooner than later.

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