The good news is that we seem to have plateaued.
The Health Agency reports 14,786 new cases today and with only 894 recoveries, the active cases jump close to 145,000.
While this is good news, the unsettling issue is the testing. There were only 68,233 tests run on September 30, with a positivity rate of 22.1%. While there are more testing done in NCR and in other HUCs (e.g., Cebu), it is not the same across all provinces particularly in areas where there are few testing facilities. It cannot be overemphasized that the government needs to invest in more testing in order to see the true picture of the cases in the country. With more than 22% positivity, we are definitely under testing and under estimating the real number of cases of COVID19. You cannot control a pandemic properly if you do not see the enemy. You cannot rely on vaccination as the only exit strategy in this pandemic.
There are 164 new deaths recorded today.
Notice that of the 144,000 plus active COVID19 cases, over 13% are asymptomatic, while 2.7% (or 3,900) are severe and critical and 2.56% (5,130) are moderate. Remember, the classification is based on the clinical presentation of the patient at the time the test was done. It is possible that patients who are asymptomatic become mild or even die later on. I doubt that the agency follows up each and every patient.
The NCR posted less than 3,000 cases today, accounting for 19.5% of the total cases. Other regions with four digits were: CALABARZON, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, CAR and Cagayan Valley. The cases in Northern Luzon are disturbingly high as Regions I, II, and CAR account for close to 27% of the total cases in the country today.
While Cavite topped the provinces, it was four provinces in Northern Luzon that were in the top five: Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Benguet, and La Union.
On a city/municipality level, Quezon City will always be the city to beat in terms of number of cases. Baguio City remains a solid second behind Quezon City. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top twenty, while the remaining are from LGUs in the provinces.