With R ~ 0.82 and 7,835 new cases and the data for 10.14.2021

With 51,358 tests done on October 12, 2021 and a positivity rate of 14%, the Health Agency reports 7,835 new cases today (including some cases which may have not been reported in past days or even weeks). The active cases are up at close to 85,000.

The positivity rate varies from region to region, with the NCR at 11% and some areas like Central Visayas at 8%.

Health care utilization is lower in general (moderate risk), with ICU utilization rate at 65% nationally and 61% in the NCR.

New deaths announced today is 154. The case fatality rate for outcomes is at 1.54%.

For the past week, NCR has ranged from 17.5-22.5% of the total daily cases in the country. NCR plus (CALABARZON and Central Luzon) accounted for an average of 45% of the share of total daily cases. The target should be to decrease further the cases in these areas, and while they are the economic hubs of Luzon and, well, the country, targeting specific reforms (improving indoor ventilation in offices and malls, improve testing and aggressive contact tracing, stricter granular lockdowns particularly in areas where crowding is highest, increase vaccination in the more congested areas and among informal settlers) is highly suggested.

Regions MUST receive their lion’s share of the vaccines for the eligible adult population so that there is equity in vaccinating them sooner than later. Adults are the direct economic frontliner in every household. They need to work in order to put food on the table. The vaccines should be accessible to even the most far flung areas. Evidently, from the daily data drop, one can see that the delta surge has reached every tip of the archipelago – from Batanes to Jolo. And no one is safe, until everyone is safe.

On a provincial level, Benguet continued to lead among the top ten.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The good news is that of the top 20 LGUs, 10 of them have low three digits, while the other ten are double digit figures. A good sign considering a month ago, all LGUs in the top twenty either had four or three digits at the very least.

Five cities in the top ten were from NCR, while the other five were from major LGUs outside of Mega Manila. Those outside of NCR were: Baguio, Davao City, Zamboanga City, Bacoor (Cavite) and Bacolod City.

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