An update on NCR plus 8 and the data for 10.15.2021

It’s another 7K day (third in a row) and that should be good news as the Health Agency reports 7,625 cases today. With more recoveries, the total active cases are now down to less than 80,000. The Philippines breaches the 2.7M mark with today’s new cases.

Total tests done last October 13 was close to 50,000 with a positivity of 14.9%.

Hospital utilization and ICU utilization is at moderate risk.

Total deaths reported today is 203.

The NCR accounted for 18% of the total cases today with 1,381 new cases. Except for BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits.

Isabela province and Negros Occidental led the provinces with most cases.

On an LGU level, only 8 LGUs reported triple digits while the remaining 12 reported double digits. The LGU in 20th spot, the City of Marikina, had 49 cases. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top ten – Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Baguio City, Davao City and Antipolo (Rizal).

The NCR plus eight are composed of the following: Mega Manila, Cebu City, Davao city, four provinces in CALABARZON (Batangas, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal) and two provinces in Central Luzon (Bulacan and Pampanga).

Based on the OCTA Research data, six of these areas are now at moderate risk, while two – Cebu City and Cavite – are at low risk. This is based on the average values for the indicators of ADAR (incidence rate), Rt (reproduction number), health care utilization (HCUR and ICU utilization rate) and positivity of tests.

Based on these indicators, only NCR has an ADAR > 10, while the rest are now below. Reproduction rate is all the nine hot spots are well below the national average, with Cebu City enjoying a Rt < 0.5. ICU utilization rate is also down to moderate levels in most of these places, and the positivity rate for testing is < 10% for Cebu City and Cavtie, at 10% for NCR, and above the national average of 14.5% in Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas and Davao City.

Prepared by Professor Guido David, PhD

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