Rt up at 0.90 and 253 new cases on 05.01.2022

The Health Agency reports 253 new cases and 56 deaths for today. NCR had 96 cases today.

The full report on the rising effective reproduction numbers for the country below. Four LGUs report double digits. They were: Makati 13, Manila 12, Pasay and Quezon City 11, apiece. Other LGUs in NCR report single digit with one reporting zero covid – Pateros.

Provinces/HUCs that had double digit cases were: Cavite 15, and Puerto Princesa City 17.


While the Philippines continued to report lower cases this week compared the previous, the decline in cases is actually slower now. Notice that the effective reproduction number is now at 0.90 (+/- 0.05). Meaning? We have reached a trough. The average daily cases will fluctuate between 150-250. And that’s really not good news. While the over-all healthcare system is not currently overwhelmed, the daily events on campaign and election pose a very high risk for a possible ‘surge’ in cases before the end of May. If that Rt breaches 1.0, we should be concerned.

For now, the 7-day average for the PH is at 187 new daily cases (1.68 per 1M population). A tad down for last week’s 210.

The fluctuation in deaths due to backlogs is frustrating. The Health Agency needs to clean up all data on mortalities immediately, while the cases are currently low so that real-time mortality rates can be correlated with the situation of the pandemic in the country and how these cases contribute to over-all mortality.

Comparing our data with other parts of East Asia, notice that the reproduction rate is highest is two Chinese nations – Taiwan and China. While all other countries are seeing a lower Rt, it is Indonesia, Brunei and Vietnam that have made significant strides in lowering the numbers. With this, Indonesia’s cases are actually lower per capita than the Philippines.

South Korea sees a significant drop in their cases, while Taiwan and China see rising cases in their territories. On a per capita (number of cases/million population) basis, it is Taiwan that has moved up to third rank in this part of the region.

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