The Health Agency announces 2321 new cases, 49 added deaths and 12.3% positivity rate today. NCR owned 813 (35%) of the cases.

There were 3 LGUs in NCR with triple digits: NCR 178, Manila 114 and Taguig 102. LGUs with double digits were: Makati 65, Parañaque 62, Pasig 47, Caloocan 46, Mandaluyong and Muntinlupa 31, Valenzuela 28, Marikina 27, Pasay City and Las Piñas 25 and Malabon 12.

Outside of NCR, only Cavite had triple digits with 138 cases.

Provinces or HUCs with more than 50 but less than 100 cases based on RT-PCR results were: Laguna 84, Rizal 75, Batangas 55, Bulacan 83, Iloilo 61, Cebu 85, Davao del Sur 72 (with Davao City owning 67).

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines saw a decline in cases this week as it sees lower reported RT-PCR documented cases which now averages 2350/day. Japan and South Korea also continued to see a decline in numbers. However, two countries saw continuing rising cases – Taiwan and Hong Kong – this week.

The upward trend in these small nations has put them in the forefront of COVID-19 cases per capita (per million population), displacing erstwhile second placer Japan. With Hong Kong averaging almost 10K cases per day and Taiwan up at almost 30K daily cases, their COVID-19 numbers are up on a per capita basis. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan have almost 1300 cases/million population daily.

Effective reproduction rate is lower in the East Asia region, which means that we should be seeing lower cases again in the region this coming week. The Rt of the Philippines is now down to 0.82 (+/- 0.05), but this can drastically change with the opening of face-to-face classes.

The Health Agency announces 2812 new cases with a stable 12.4% positivity rate today. There were 52 added deaths. NCR owned 873 (31%) of the day’s numbers.

Of the 17 LGUs in NCR, 14 reported double digits while 2 reported triple. The triple digits came from Quezon City 159 and Manila 102. Double digits came from: Makati 81, Taguig 78, Caloocan 77, Las Piñas 63, Parañaque 61, Pasig 58, Muntinlupa 45, Marikina 38, Pasay City 30, Mandaluyong 29, Malabon 14, and Valenzuela, San Juan and Navotas with 11 each. Of these LGUs, the highest ADAR (average daily attack rate) were Makati (12.95), Parañaque (10.25) and Mandaluyong (10.21). Highest fatality rates were from Marikina (1.7%), Navotas (1.7%) and Valenzuela (1.6%).

Outside of NCR, three provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 194, Davao del Sur 141 (with Davao City owning 113), and Rizal 112. Provinces and HUCs with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 77, Batangas 82, Bulacan 80, Nueva Ecija 57, Pampanga 67, Negros Occidental 60, Cebu 71 and Isabela 56.

Highest ADAR outside of NCR is Baguio City (12.93), while the province with the highest fatality rate is Aurora Province (5.2%).

Provinces and HUCs that saw higher than usual cases today were: Misamis Oriental 45, North Cotabato 42, General Santos City 16, Zamboanga del Norte 27, and Maguindanao 14.

The Health Agency announces 2452 new cases with 46 added deaths today. The positivity rate is stable at 12.4%. NCR owned 712 (29%) of the cases for the day.

Only Quezon City had triple digits in NCR today with 165 cases. Twelve other LGUs reported double digits: Manila 86, Makati 64, Pasig 64, Mandaluyong 43, Taguig 42, Parañaque 41, Las Piñas 34, Caloocan 32, Marikina 30, Pasay City 30, Valenzuela 29, and Muntinlupa 26.

The provinces with triple digits were led by Davao del Sur 115 (93 from Davao City) and Cavite 112.

Those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Zamboanga del Sur 50, Pampanga 58, Bulacan 67, Negros Occidental 57, Cebu 77, Rizal 88, and Laguna 81.

Other provinces that saw higher cases than usual today were: North Cotabato 47, Agusan del Sur 30, Palawan 35, Maguindanao 15 and Basilan 17.

The Health Agency announces 3767 new cases after two days of counts at the 1,000 level. This is because the past two days were data from a long weekend – Sunday and Monday. The late data from the provinces were also counted only today. There were 50 added deaths today with 12.4% positivity rate (up from 11.8% yesterday). The NCR owned 1016 cases (27%).

Zambales owned 510 of the cases while Olongapo City registered 763 cases today – in what may have been unreported cases in the past weeks but were reported only today. Other provinces and HUCs did not see this aberrant deviation in data as only Cavite reported 135 cases. Those that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 80, Rizal 73, Batangas 80, Bulacan 75, Pampanga 54, Iloilo 50, Negros Occidental 61, Cebu 67, Isabela 54 and Davao del Sur 50.

In NCR, three LGUs reported triple digits: Quezon City 199, Manila 136 and Makati 102. Twelve LGUs reported double digits: Taguig 83, Caloocan 81, Parañaque 78, Pasig 58, Mandaluyong 52, Pasay City 40, Las Piñas 36, Valenzuela 35, Marikina 35, Muntinlupa 33, San Juan 18 and Navotas 12.

Without the data of Zambales and Olongapo City (which were off the charts), the country may have truly had around 2600 cases only today.

The last day of August 2022 had the Health Agency reporting 1558 new cases with 41 added deaths and a slight bump up in the positivity rate to 11.8%. The lower cases today is due to the fact that Monday, August 29 was a holiday and the long weekends tend to show lower cases because of either non-testing or that some testing facilities are not operational on these days.

The NCR owned 580 (37.2%) of the cases today.

Only Quezon City continued to report triple digits for the day with 153 cases. Thirteen other LGUs in NCR saw double digits: Manila 67, Makati 50, Parañaque 43, Pasig 42, Mandaluyong 36, Las Piñas 34, Marikina 27, Taguig 26, Caloocan 25, Pasay City 24, Muntinlupa 20, Valenzuela 14, and San Juan 10.

Only 4 provinces had more than 50 but less than 100 cases in the country as even the provinces and HUCs outside of NCR were seeing declining cases today. These were: Davao del Sur 65 (with Davao City accounting for 60), Cavite 64, Laguna 59 and Iloilo 57.

The Health Agency announces 1672 new cases (one of the lowest in the past weeks) but the number of deaths continued to be high with 53 announced today. Positivity rate is stable at 11.6%. NCR owned 563 of the cases.

Of course, the low data today is a reflection of the pattern seen on Tuesdays (for tests done on Sunday). Because Monday, August 29 was a holiday, we most likely should see the same trend tomorrow.

Quezon City was the lone LGU that reported triple digits in the country with 108 cases. In the NCR, twelve other LGUs posted double digits: Manila 88, Makati 65, Parañaque 59, Pasig 48, Pasay City 36, Taguig 35, Mandaluyong 24, Muntinlupa 23, Las Piñas 20, Caloocan 16, Marikina 14 and San Juan 11.

Provinces that reported more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cavite 91, Bulacan 90, Davao del Sur 84 (Davao City owned 82 of the cases), Rizal 76 and Pampanga 51.

The Health Agency announces a total of 19,262 cases for the week August 22-28, 2022 (-19% from the week of August 15-21 where the country had 23,883 cases). The 7-day average is now less than 3000 (at 2752 cases vs 3412 the week prior). Despite the lower cases, the severe and critical cases are up with 110 added this week (0.62% of new cases) compared to 101 (0.44%) the week prior. There were 316 added deaths, 94 of which occurred recently (from August 15-28).

Healthcare utilization is lower for both non-ICU (28.1% vs 30.2% the week prior) and ICU bed utilization at 24.9% (vs. 27% the week prior). However, severe and critical admissions comprised 10.5% of total COVID-19 admissions this week compared to 9.7% of the cases the week prior (when there were more COVID cases).

There were 2573 new cases today with 53 added deaths. The positivity rate is reset today and is now at a low 11.6%. As the national cases decline, the hotbed of the country – the National Capital Region – accounts for the greater share of the pie, with 891 (35%) of the cases.

In NCR, 2 LGUs continue to report triple digits – Quezon City 208 and Manila 139. Twelve LGUs had double digits: Makati 88, Pasig and Parañaque 71 each, Las Piñas 49, Pasay City 42, Taguig 37, Muntinlupa 33, Valenzuela and Marikina 32 each, Mandaluyong 31, Caloocan 29, and San Juan 10.

Outside of NCR, four provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 146, Rizal 118, Laguna 102 and Davao del Sur 101 (with Davao City owning 88 of the cases).

Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases today were: Bulacan 85, Cebu 86, Iloilo 67, Cagayan Province 66 and Isabela 52.

The Health Agency announces 2318 new cases with 54 added deaths today. Positivity rate improved to 14.1% from a previous 14.3%. In today’s blog is the analysis of the projections from Prof. Guido David and the data from Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 data (on https://ourworldindata.org).

Two LGUs in NCR reported triple digits today – Quezon City 174 and Manila 104. Twelve of the LGUs continued to report double digits but several of them are seeing lower cases. Those with double digits were: Makati 73, Parañaque 65, Pasig 61, Taguig 58, Muntinlupa 40, Pasay City 35, Marikina 34, Mandaluyong 32, Caloocan 27, Las Piñas 26, Valenzuela 26 and San Juan 11.

Outside of NCR, triple digits were seen in the provinces of Cavite 121, Bulacan 103, and Rizal 102.

Only three provinces reported more than 50 but less than 100 cases. They were: Laguna 82, Cebu 51 and Davao del Sur 57 (with Davao City accounting for 55 of the cases). Areas with higher than usual cases today were: Benguet 30, Bukidnon 36 and Palawan 25.

Prof. Guido David provides an overview on the COVID-19 situation in the country and in the National Capital Region, the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines.

The 7-day average based on August 27, 2022 data is at 2892 daily cases, which the NCR, which owns around 30% of the national cases continues to decline in Rt and positivity. If the current situation maintains the same mathematical modeling, we expect lower cases by the end of September. Hopefully, these would translate also to more reliable numbers as many of the cases in more highly urbanized areas in Metro Manila and the country are not counted because the Philippines only includes those testing positive by RT-PCR.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The current situation in the Philippines shows that the reproduction rate is flat at 1.01 (+/- 0.05)[comparable to the data above of Prof. Guido David where the difference is around 0.1], which means that the cases are on a very slow decline. With the 7-day average positivity rate hovering at 14.3% (a significant drop from >18% 2 weeks ago), the average daily cases have also declined by 10-15% over the past week.

Japan and South Korea remain to be the only countries reporting six digit daily cases, while Taiwan continued to report five digits.

On a per capita basis (per million population), South Korea has the highest cases in East Asia at 2119/million population, eclipsing Japan (1702/million) and Taiwan (1019/million). Hong Kong and Singapore continue to report triple digits per million cases, while the rest have lower numbers including the Philippines which is now down to 27/million (from a previous 35-40/million).

Reproduction rates of all countries in the East Asian region are stable (which means that the following week will more or less provide the same statistics with a slow decline among countries with R> 0.9), while countries with R<0.8 (Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei) will continue to see continued decline in cases as natural immunity from infection spreads across the region.

The Health Agency announces 2565 new cases today with a positivity rate that has remained stable at 14.3% for the past days. There were, however 54 additional deaths today (highest from the past few weeks). NCR owned 865 or more than 1/3 of the country’s cases for the day.

The top hauler for the day went to Quezon City that continued to report not only triple digits but more than 200 cases (232 for today). Thirteen other LGUs in NCR reported double digits: Manila 99, Makati 69, Parañaque 66, Pasig 63, Las Piñas 58, Taguig 55, Pasay City 52, Mandaluyong 34, Valenzuela 32, Muntinlupa 28, Caloocan 26, Marikina 24 and San Juan 10.

Provinces outside of NCR that reported triple digits were: Cavite 120, Rizal 104 and Davao del Sur 102 (with Davao City contributing 84 of their cases). Provinces that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases today were: Laguna 76, Bulacan 97, Pampanga 85, Iloilo 63, Cebu 86, Cagayan Province 55, and Isabela 67.

Areas that saw higher than usual cases were: Bukidnon 43, Camarines Sur 35, and Zamboanga del Sur 47.

The Health Agency reports 2986 new cases as the positivity rate plateaued at 14.3% today. However, the deaths continued to pile up with 40 added. The NCR accounted for 29.2% of the day’s cases with 872.

In NCR, Quezon City and Manila were the LGUs that reported triple digits with 184 and 125, respectively. Double digits were seen in Makati 87, Pasig 73, Taguig 70, Parañaque 47, Las Piñas 46, Muntinlupa 41, Caloocan and Pasay City 38 each, Mandaluyong and Marikina 34 each, Valenzuela 31 and San Juan 12.

Outside of NCR, four provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 173, Rizal 119, Bulacan 112 and Laguna 107. Those with more than 50 cases but less than 100 were: Batangas 58, Pampanga 76, Nueva Ecija 72, Tarlac 53, Iloilo 57, Negros Occidental 84, Cebu 83, Cagayan Province 67, Davao del Sur 99, La Union 60, Baguio City 99.

Areas that saw higher than usual numbers today were: Ilocos Norte 43, Davao del Norte 34, Benguet 36, Kalinga 21, Mountain Province 21, Bukidnon 25 and Albay 27.

Reminder to the readers that these numbers may not reflect the actual COVID-19 cases in the country as testing has declined. Death is also a lagging indicator and may not reflect the true cases of death in the country due to COVID-19.