It’s been a horrible 2021 and the first two months of 2022 looked bleak when the Philippines suffered wave after wave when a new variant of concert sprouted. I anticipate how we the Health Agency will announce the daily numbers beginning tomorrow.

For today, the DoH announces 870 new cases (92% of which are ‘recent’) with the NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas leading the regions for most number of cases.

There were 24543 tests done last March 4, with a positivity rate of 3.9%.

This brings the active cases now to lower than 49,000, with more than 91% of them being mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing.

The deaths have now surpassed the 57000 mark with the additional 144 deaths recorded today. Of the deaths added today, 12 occurred in march, 64 in February and 48 last January, or 85% of deaths from January to March 2022 added today. The remaining deaths were from September to December 2021.

The NCR recorded 223 cases today, accounting for 26% of the total cases in the country for the day. The only other region with triple digits was CALABARZON with 129 cases. Western Visayas came in third with 90, followed by Central Visayas with 72 cases. Only one region reported single digit case – BARMM with 9.

There were 10 ROFs positive for COVID-19 today.

In the NCR, the City of Manila had 48 cases followed by Quezon City with 37 and Las Piñas with 26. Makati was in 4th with 22 cases. All other LGUs reported < 20 cases, with 9 LGUs reporting single digit. The LGUs with single digit were: Malabon 2, Mandaluyong 8, Marikina 8, Muntinlupa 3, Navotas 1, San Juan 1, Valenzuela 3, Pateros 2, and Taguig City 8.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

This week closed with good news. The Philippines finally met the 7-day moving average with triple digits and ends with 952 average daily cases as of March 5, 2022. The deaths were erratic as many backlogs from 2020-2021 started pouring in this week as well. The 7-day average deaths is at 76 deaths/day.

Elsewhere in neighboring Asia, countries which began with managing the pandemic on a high note are now affected with the omicron wave.

Worst hit is Hong Kong with more than 5000/million population new daily cases. Based on a 7-day moving average Hong Kong is averaging 42,000 new daily cases, South Korea at almost 200,000 and Vietnam at 100,000. Indonesia, a country with almost 4x the population of the Philippines is ahead of the PH with 134 cases/M population, while the PH is lowest at around 10/M population.

The effective reproduction rate is a good indicator on how the pandemic is being managed in the respective countries. When reproduction numbers stay at 1.0, this implies that the previous numbers will most likely carry on in the same quantity in the subsequent week. Rt >1 puts the country at highest risk of increasing numbers. For example, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand still have Rt >1.25. This implies that they have not peaked yet and are most likely to see soaring numbers in the next week.

On the other hand, the PH and Indonesia have Rt at 0.59 and 0.79, respectively. This augurs well for these countries. As the numbers are now lower than other nations in the Asian region, the low Rt allows more elbow room for the numbers to continue to decline. The positivity rate for the Philippines stands at <5% (low risk).

Today is the second to the last day that the Health Agency will be announcing the daily cases and deaths.

There were 941 added today, with 833 (89%) being recent (last two weeks). Over 100 cases included in today’s announcement were backlogs.

Of the close to 27k tests done last March 3, 3.8% were positive.

Top three regions were: NCR, CALABARZON and Central Visayas.

The deaths, however, were recent. Of the 109 deaths announced today, 86% occurred from January to March 2022, with the majority coming in from February.

There were 10 duplicates removed. All were recoveries.

There were 96 cases previously tagged as recoveries but on final validation were actually deaths.

NCR accounted for more than 1/4 (26%) of the total cases today with 245 cases. The was led by the City of Manila with 49 and Quezon City with 43 cases. The only other LGU in NCR with more than 20 cases was Makati with 22. Seven LGUs in Mega Manila had single digit. They were: Malabon 5, Marikina 2, Muntinlupa 3, Navotas 1, San Juan 7, Valenzuela 7, and Pateros 1.

On a regional level, aside from NCR, two other regions reported triple digits. These were CALABARZON with 151 cases and Western Visayas with 110. Two regions report single digit – BARMM 2 and Bicol 5.

There were 9 ROFs positive today.

My last three days of having to blog about the daily new cases. The Health Agency will discontinue its daily reporting on March 7. Today, they announce 853 new cases as the active cases tip toe on the 50K mark. More than 91% of the active cases were asymptomatic or mild at the time of diagnosis.

Of the 853 cases reported today, only 92% occurred recently (last two weeks) with the NCR, CALABARON and Central Visayas reporting the most cases.

Now let’s drill down to the 232 deaths announced today.

Only 5 (2%) occurred in March, 17 (7%) in February and 16 (7%) last January 2022. Where did the 84% of deaths come from? From 2020 – 2021.

In 2020 the following deaths were recorded for the corresponding month: July (2), August (6), September (5), October (4), November (7), December (1).

In 2021, the following deaths were recorded for the corresponding month: January (1), February (4), March (31), April (20), May (14), June (7), July (9), August (22), September (36), October (18), and November (7).

As additional side note, 11 duplicates were removed from the total case count, of whom 5 were recoveries.

Two hundred nineteen cases previously tagged as recoveries (wayyyy back in 2020) were discovered to have died and tagged as such after final validation (which makes you wonder how many more tagged as recoveries actually died?).

NCR accounted for 22% of the daily cases with 185 added today. The only other region with triple digits was CALABARZON with 133 cases. All other regions reported double digits except for CARAGA that had only 3 cases today. Western Visayas had 93, Central Visayas 99 and Central Luzon 75 cases. All other regions with double digits had less than 50 cases.

In the NCR, of the 17 LGUs, 10 LGUs continued to report single digit cases, while the remaining had double digits.

Those with single digit number were: Caloocan 9, Malabon 1, Mandaluyong 9, Marikina 6, Muntinlupa 4, Navotas 3, Pasig 4, San Juan 1, Valenzuela 9 and Pateros 2. The LGUs that led in Mega Manila were: City of Manila 33, and Pasay City tying with Quezon City with 23 cases apiece. The rest of the LGUs had more than 10 but less than 20 cases.

There were 11 ROFs that reported positive today.

With triple digits being recorded the past days, the Philippines continued the decline in daily new cases as the Health Agency announces 989 new cases today. There were a little more than 27000 tests with a positivity rate of 4.5% last March 1. Of the 989 cases today, only 89% are ‘fresh’ (last 2 weeks) with the NCR, CALABARZON and Central Visayas topping the regions with most cases.

The active cases are down to a little more than 50,000 and more than 91% were mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing.

There are 34 additional deaths. Of these 41% or 14 occurred in January and February 2022. The remaining 59% dated all the way back to April 2020. As a matter of fact, three deaths were from 2020 – April, September and November.

There were 4 duplicates removed from the total case count, 3 of who were recoveries.

There were 26 cases previously tagged as recoveries but after final validation, were deaths.

NCR continued to account for approximately 20% of the total cases in the country with 203 cases today. Three other regions had triple digits: CALABARZON 128, Western Visayas 128 and Central Visayas 117. The rest had double digit cases, while BARMM continued its single digit streak with 7 cases today.

In Mega Manila, Quezon City led the LGUs with 44 cases, followed by the City of Manila with 39. All other LGUs reported less than 20 cases, with ten LGUs reporting single digit. The latter were: Las Piñas 8, Malabon 5, Mandaluyong 4, Marikina 9, Muntinlupa 4, Navotas 3, Pasig 9, San Juan 1, Valenzuela 5, and Pateros 1.

As the PH continued its decline in cases, other neighboring Asian nations are suffering from the whiplash of the omicron wave, most especially in countries that have not had to experience the various alphabetical waves of SARS-CoV-2. With South Korea hitting more than 200,000 cases and Vietnam surpassing 100,000 cases in a day, the Philippine moves down from 21st rank in the world to 23rd rank and will most likely continue this decline as other countries in Asia and Australia continue to battle with omicron.

The Health Agency reported 866 new cases today, of which 87% are fresh (within the last two weeks). The remaining 13% were backlogs. There were close to 24000 tested with a 4.7% positivity rate on the last day of February 2022. Top regions with cases were NCR, Western Visayas and Central Luzon.

There are 53 deaths today, 23 of which occurred in February and 2 last January 2022. The remaining were backlogs all the way back to 2020, where there were deaths that occurred in March, July and November 2020 that were only being reported today.

There were 5 duplicates removed from the total case count, of which 3 are recoveries.

There were 46 cases previously tagged as recoveries but eventually determined as deaths after final validation.

The NCR accounted for 20% of the total cases today with 183 new cases followed by Western Visayas with 169. All other regions reported less than 100 cases, with BARMM reporting only 7 new cases today. Of the regions that reported double digits, the following had 50-99 cases: Central Luzon 83, CALABARZON 83, Central Visayas 58, Northern Mindanao 57, and Davao Region 56. The remaining regions had less than 30 cases.

There were 14 ROFs that were included among the positive today.

In Mega Manila, no LGU had more than 50 cases. The top LGUs were Quezon City 41, City of Manila 31, and Makati 21. All other LGUs had single or double digits. Those with single digit were: Caloocan 6, Las Piñas 8, Malabon 4, Mandaluyong 4, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 9, Navotas 2, San Juan 1, Valenzuela 3, Pateros 1 and Taguig 5.

The Health Agency reports 1067 new cases today, the first day when many areas in the country move into Alert Level 1. There were only 18766 tests with a 4.3% positivity last February 27. Which means that the data today had a lot of backlogs included. In actuality, only 652 (61%) occurred the recent two weeks. The top regions with most cases were NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

There were 5 duplicates removed from the total case count where 3 are recoveries.

There are NO DEATHS reported and notes in the DoH today.

With the relatively large backlogs today, the NCR owned 22% or 236 of the cases today. Other regions with triple digits for the day were: Western Visayas 127, CALABARZON 122, and Central Visayas 102. All other regions reported double digits except for BARMM that had only 4 cases.

In the NCR, the City of Manila led with 38 followed by Quezon City with 37 cases. Makati came in third with 31. All other LGUs in Mega Manila had less than 20 cases, with 6 LGUs with single digit. The latter were: Las Piñas 8, Malabon 3, Marikina 7, Muntinlupa 9, Navotas 2, and San Juan 4. Pateros had ZERO covid case today.

The last day of February 2022 comes with good news. It’s been awhile since we saw triple digits.

The Health Agency announces 951 new cases based on 5% positivity (now at low risk in testing) from 22407 tests done last February 26. The active cases drop to a little more than 52,000 cases with 91.4% of them being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the cases reported today, 94% are recent (last two weeks) with NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas leading the regions. NCR accounted for an average of 1/4 of the national cases.

There are 50 deaths added today. Of the deaths, 90% of them were recent (January and February 2022) while only 4 deaths were from last year (September and June 2021).

Three duplicates were removed from the total, of which one case was a recovery.

There were 36 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were actually deaths after final validation.

The flipside of the coin to today’s good news on national numbers is the regional breakdown. The NCR had 274 or almost 30% of the total cases in the country. The only other region with triple digits is CALABARZON with 139. All other region reported double digits with two regions – BARMM (6) and CARAGA (8) – reporting single digit.

In Mega Manila, only the City of Manila broke the glass ceiling – 76 cases! All other LGUs, including Quezon City reported less than 50 cases. QC had 47, followed by Pasig with 29. The rest of the cities reported less the 20 cases, with 8 LGUs having single digit. The latter were: Las Piñas 5, Malabon 4, Mandaluyong 5, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 8, Navotas 2, San Juan 3, and Pateros 3.

The Health Agency reports 1038 new cases based on 5% positivity rate from 25313 tests done on February 25, a holiday. With a couple of hundred more recoveries than new cases, the active cases drop to less than 53K. Around 91.5% of the positive cases were asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the 1036 cases today, 1015 or 98% are ‘fresh’ or occurred in the last two weeks. NCR, Western Visayas and CALABARZON led the regions.

There are 51 additional deaths today. Of the deaths reported today, only 22% occurred in January and February. A whopping 78% were backlogs occurring all the way back from January to December 2021.

There were 9 duplicates removed from the total. Three were recoveries and one was a death.

There were 44 cases previously tagged as recoveries but on final validation were actually deaths.

NCR accounted for 23% of the total share with 230 cases today. This was led by City of Manila with 47 cases and Quezon City with 44. All other LGUs in Mega Manila had 0-20 cases. Those reporting single digit were: Malabon 6, Mandaluyong 8, Marikina 2, Muntinlupa 3, Navotas 1, San Juan 5, Valenzuela 8, and Pateros had ZERO covid.

There were 8 ROFs positive for COVID 19 today.

On a regional level, only three regions were left reporting triple digits. Aside from NCR, the other two were: CALABARZON 108 and Western Visayas 129. BARMM was the only region with single digit – reporting 5 cases.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

As the cases continue to decline globally, many Asian nations are taking a whipping from the omicron wave. The Philippines, which began its omicron surge almost immediately after the delta wave is now seeing lower cases, especially in the more highly urbanized cities of the archipelago, where the government has pushed for vaccination in those eligible and rolled out the 5-11 years old sooner than other Asian nations.

One of the more important strategies at curbing the pandemic quicker was the sacrifice of the economic sector. Other Asian nations have a more difficult time in implementing this as part of their pandemic strategy as economic considerations take a front seat over health concerns.

The steep needle-rise in cases in the end of December was quick and by the end of January 2022, the cases also significantly dropped. The 7-day average is now around 1400 new daily cases and continues to take a downward trajectory as positivity rate drops to 5.3% in the country.

It’s the deaths, however, that is unsettling. With backlogs on deaths coming in this past week, the 7-day average deaths is up at 117 new daily deaths. A range of 30-50% are from deaths between July to December 2021.

Compared to the other Asian nations, the effective reproduction rate in the Philippines is at 0.47 (+/- 0.05), which means that we will continue to see lower cases in the upcoming weeks (and hopefully sustain that). The worst hit are South Korea and Vietnam, which will continue to see increasing cases. South Korea had its worst days in the last two days, as for the first time, was number one in the world for most cases in a single day. The omicron wave that hit Japan in the middle of January is also beginning to subside as its Rt drops below 1.0.

While South Korea saw the largest number of cases this week, with an unsurpassed trajectory, it was still Singapore that led in the total number of cases per capita (based on per million population) with 3360 new cases per million population vs South Korea’s 2710 new cases per million people.

The weekend Saturday has fewer cases with the Health Agency announcing 1223 new cases based on close to 27K tests with a positivity of 5.3% on February 24. As more recoveries were recorded today, the active cases drop to less than 54K. Of the new cases reported today, 96% of them are recent (last two weeks), with NCR, Region 6 and CALABARZON the top three contributors.

There are 128 new deaths added. Of these, only 20% (25) occurred this February, while only 22% (28) last January 2022. This means that 58% of the deaths happened lat year from September to December with 33 deaths in September and 35 in October being added to the deaths reported today.

There were 95 duplicates removed from the total case count – 80 of whom were recoveries while 1 a death.

There were 113 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact deaths.

NCR accounted for a high 23.3% of today’s total cases with 285. Only three other regions reported triple digits – Western Visayas 162, CALABARZON 155, and Central Visayas 142. All other regions reported double digits, except for BARMM which had only 7 cases.

There were 6 ROFs who were added to the positive COVID19 cases for the day.

In the NCR, only the City of Manila had more than 50 cases – at 54. Quezon City came in second with 43 and Parañaque in third with 32. All other LGUs had less than 30 cases. Seven LGUs had only single digit. They were: Malabon 2, Mandaluyong 9, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 6, Navotas 4, San Juan 6, and Valenzuela 4. Pateros was the lone LGU that had ZERO covid.

The People Power holiday has some good news as the Health Agency announces 5.6% positivity (while still at moderate risk, is just a fraction short of the acceptable/ideal positivity rate) from 28039 tests done last February 23.

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases remain at a little more than 55K, still with around 92% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the cases reported today, only 1200 actually are recent (last two week), with NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon leading the regions.

There are 59 deaths added. More than half (30) occurred in February while 11 last January 2022. The remaining 30% were backlogs from July to December 2021.

There were 121 duplicates removed from the total case count. Of these, 115 are recoveries.

There were 41 cases tagged as recoveries but in actuality were mortalities and reclassified as deaths.