The Health Agency reports 5,676 new cases from the over 51,000 tests done last July 14 with 11% positivity rate. With less recoveries today (it’s a Friday so you will see less recoveries), the active cases are up at near 50K again. The total number of cases are a shy away from the next 1.5M mark, which we will surely surpass tomorrow.
There were 162 deaths reported as well. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.83% today.
The original triumvirate CALABARZON, NCR and Central Luzon are back in the lead, with NCR raking in close to 15% of the total new cases for the day.
Among provinces, Cebu province ranked first, followed by Laguna and Davao del Sur.
Davao City continued to lead on an LGU level. This is followed by Quezon City, Cebu City, City of Manila and Iloilo City in sequence. Eight of 17 LGUs in NCR landed in the top twenty cities with most cases.
In Mega Manila, Quezon City and Manila reported triple digits, while the rest saw a slight increase in cases per LGU.
After the Tuesday and Wednesday reprieve where we enjoyed lower daily cases, the Health Agency reports 5,221 new cases today based on over 48K tests done last July 13 with a 10.2% positivity rate. The active cases exceeds 45,000 today, as more new cases than recoveries are announced.
With 82 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.82%.
Western Visayas and NCR take the lead once more, as the cases in Davao Region see a significant decline. Except for MIMAROPA and BARMM, all the other regions continue to report triple digits.
Iloilo province, Laguna and Negros Occidental are the provinces with most new cases.
While Davao City remains the LGU to beat, its declining cases will most likely have Quezon City back in saddle as the city to beat in the country. All major cities in the country are among the top five LGUs with most cases. In third to fifth are: Cebu City, Bacolod City and Iloilo City.
Quezon City remains the city with most new cases in NCR and is the only one with triple digits for the day. Six of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila are among the top 20 cities with most cases in the country.
OCTA Monitoring Report
Based on data from July 8-July 14, there are red flags among the four indicators for seeing how well select LGUs seeing high number of cases in the country are doing. For example, Mariveles in Bataan is flagged for having the highest Rt = 2.23, ADAR of 37.09 (per 100,000 population) and a positive testing rate of 15%.
Baguio City has a positivity rate of 23% and General Santos’ positive rate is the highest in the country at 27%.
ICU utilization rate is highest in Santa Rosa Laguna at 97%, followed by Iloilo City at 94%. Davao City is doing fairly better this week compared the past months.
Because it is a Wednesday, we are a few cases more than the Tuesdays.
The Health Agency announces 3,806 new cases based on close to 32,000 tests done on July 12 with a positivity rate of 11%, still high by any standard. In the NCR, the positivity rate is at 6%, but the national positivity rate is being pulled up because of other provinces and regions.
With more recoveries than new cases, the number of active cases is down to less than 45,000.
New deaths announced today is 140, placing the case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.82%. With a 7-day average of 5,000/day, will we reach the 1.5M milestone by the weekend?
Suddenly Central Visayas has a significant drop in cases. NCR accounted for more than 14% of the total cases.
The daily data is not a true reflection of what is happening on a day to day basis as this reflects the testing and submission of tests within the region (or province or LGU).
Davao del Sur, Iloilo province and Cavite were the top contributors on a provincial level.
Davao City stayed on top with less cases among top twenty LGUs for the day.
And in NCR, Quezon City continued to lead. However, the cases in the NCR were in the double digit and single digit margin.
OCTAMONITORING REPORT
In yesterday’s blog, it was pointed out that in spite of the low number of cases (because it was a Tuesday), Central Visayas suddenly found itself in the top spot. Whether this is because of improved testing and contact tracing, some perspective should be taken with the increase of cases in this region.
To recapitulate yesterday’s data, Central Visayas was the top region, Cebu province was the top province and three cities in Cebu were in the top ten – Cebu City, Lapu Lapu City and Mandate City. These three cities accounted for close to 250 of the new cases in the province alone.
The OCTA report today shows the sudden increase in infection rate for Cebu City (Rt=1.49) and Lapu Lapu City (Rt=1.96). Mariveles is seeing the highest Rt at 2.26 (remember it was number 1 among LGUs a few days ago). In spite of the higher infection rates in Cebu, their ICU utilization rates remain relative low and positivity test is less than the national positivity rate of 11%. As the DOH-Region VII office notes a ‘third wave’, we continue to monitor closely the situation in Cebu and leave to the local government there on how to utilize the information provided here.
The full report below:
Elsewhere in the world, are our next door neighbors. Indonesia suddenly has the most cases in a day yesterday and passes other countries seeing higher cases like Spain and the UK. Not in the table below are the others who made it to the top twenty – Malaysia and Thailand. And as our neighboring ASEAN nations are experiencing the difficult surges, how do we treat our border entries for those coming from these countries?
Based on the Health Agency report for the day, the Philippines records lower cases based on close to 30,000 tests done last July 11, a Sunday. Positivity rate is still above 10%. With more new recoveries than new cases, the active cases are now at close to 47,000.
Seventy seven new deaths announced today make the case fatality ratio for outcomes remain at 1.82%.
The low cases on a Tuesday came as a shocker for one region – Central Visayas – taking the lead away from NCR plus. It led not only by region, but Cebu province was number one among the top ten provinces. Cebu City, the crown jewel in the south came in second among all LGUs in the country.
The province of Cebu had three cities in the top ten – Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City and Mandaue City.
Davao City remained in the lead among LGUs, while NCR saw all it’s LGUs reporting double digit cases. The City of Manila had the highest number of cases in Mega Manila for the day. Five of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities today.
The region to watch is Ilocos Region, which saw a significant rise in cases and in ranking among regions.
OCTA MONITORING REPORT UPDATE
The OCTA Monitoring Report for July 13 spotlights on the cases in the National Capital Region. With a steady trend of 634 new cases per day for the period July 6-12, this is a tiny bit lower than the previous week’s average. The Rt is at 0.93 and inches up a bit as well.. Using the ADAR (average daily attack rate or incidence rate), NCR overall has 4.59 per 100,000 daily. Positivity rate is still at 6%.
Cities that are seeing more than 5 per 100,000 daily are Parañaque, Taguig, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Muntinlupa, Pasig, Las Piñas, San Juan and Makati.
The Health Agency reports 5,204 new cases today based on data from July 10 with a positivity rate of 10.8%. Note, however, that 8 laboratories failed to submit results (accounting for 0.45% of all more than 45,000 tested samples or 1.3% of positive individuals). The past days have shown that the cases are rising outside of the National Capital Region, although the Rt is now past 0.9 in Mega Manila.
With 100 new deaths recorded, the Philippines passes the 26,000 deaths mark and the case fatality ratio for outcomes remains at 1.82%.
CALABARZON led among all regions with almost 50% more cases than NCR.
It was Laguna, Cavite and Batangas that continued to account for the haul in Region IVA, with Laguna topping the provincial rankings.
Among LGUs, Davao City took back the lead today, with more cases than Quezon City and Cebu City combined.
In NCR, Quezon City remained the top contributor to the daily cases with triple digits.
As of July 11, the DoH reports that more than 13M doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been given. More than 3.5M have been fully vaccinated bringing the percentage of fully vaccinated to 3.2% of the population (which may be higher at 5.1% considering the eligible population is only approximately 70M).
With 3 laboratories not submitting data for July 9, there are close to 6,000 new cases with 11.4% positivity rate. The active cases still hover at around 50,000 per day and while there are significant recoveries, the number of new cases continue to pace with the recoveries.
There are 105 new deaths announced and the case fatality ratio for outcomes remains at 1.82%.
CALABARZON and Western Visayas take back the lead today, while Central Luzon is back in the top five regions with most cases, joining NCR and Central Visayas.
Among provinces, it is Bataan that saw a dramatic increase in cases, coming in number 3 among the top 10 provinces in the country. It is the same province that pushed Central Luzon to fourth rank among regions. With the 284 new cases in Bataan alone, Mariveles took over as the LGU with the most cases for the day.
The overall reproduction rate for the country hovers at 0.93. While that is welcome news, notice that many of the provinces remain steady or are seeing a decline (trending ‘flat’). The NCR, while flat is seeing a slight upward trend at 0.91 (after staying less than 0.9 the past 2 months). The NCR needs to maintain a Rt <0.6 or better because any slight upward movement in reproduction number will affect the total number of cases in the Philippines. It is the most vulnerable region for any surge.
The LGUs outside of NCR with most new daily cases from July 4-10 are seen below. Among the four different indicators, Cebu City has the highest reproduction number, Iloilo City the highest ADAR (average daily attack rate), Iloilo City the highest ICU utilization rate and General Santos with the highest positivity rate.
THE WEEK THAT WAS
While the cases took an upward spike the end of May 2021 because of increasing cases in regions outside of the NCR plus, lockdown measures in the major provinces is seeing a slow decline in new daily cases. The 7-day average is lower by 7% to around 5,250/day this week. The number of deaths is also slightly lower, but the case fatality ratio remains steady at 1.82% (based on outcomes – recorded recoveries and deaths). CFR based on outcomes provides a more accurate picture of fatality rates because deaths are always reported late.
Testing capacity is erratic and is slightly lower the past week. This is due to the fact that there are fewer cases in NCR, where the bulk (>40%) of the testing facilities in the country are located. That is also the reason why the positivity rate remains above the acceptable 5% standard. As most of the testing facilities are concentrated in Mega Manila, test results from the provinces eventually are delayed.
In Asia, where we are seeing a resurgence in cases, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, the Philippines is performing much better in controlling the outbreak as we see a very slow and steady decline. We need to vaccinate quickly because of emergence of variants among the unvaccinated. If we continue to vaccinate at a slow pace, the emergence of variants can derail the over-all benefit of the vaccines.
This is how the world is currently doing with COVID-19 vaccines. Notice that Asia leads in terms of number of people who have received a single or even full doses. However, the population of Asia is also the largest in the world. For now, the solution is not providing additional boosters to those already immunized. Rather, it is vaccinating a greater percentage of the population. The 70% number to achieve ‘herd protection’ is arbitrary, as this will depend on the efficacy of the vaccines available in the country or community. And that’s a fact. The solution of manufacturing companies on getting booster shots is in theory, a self-serving solution for financial gains of the industry. It does not make sense that you keep immunizing those that have already gotten the vaccine, when a larger majority of people in the world have not even received a single dose.
Let’s get majority of the people in the world vaccinated first, before we even talk about boosters. There isn’t enough going around for now. And the great divide between richer and poorer nations couldn’t be more obvious than today.
With 3 laboratories failing to submit results on July 8, 2021, the Health Agency reports 5,675 new cases from over 50,000 tests and an 11% positivity rate for that date. The number of active cases is a notch below 50,000 with more recoveries today.
A total of 96 new deaths were announced today. The case fatality ratio for outcomes remains steady at 1.82%.
The current 7-day average of new cases is 5,275 and 107 new deaths for the Philippines.
Western Visayas leads over all regions today, with cases pouring in from Iloilo and Negros Occidental provinces. NCR, CALABARZON, Davao Region and Central Visayas round up with the top five with more than 500 new cases apiece.
Davao del Sur continued to top the provinces in number of new cases and Davao City among LGUs in the country. Davao City had more cases than the top three LGUs in NCR – Quezon City, City of Manila and Pasig City – combined.
Six of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 cities with most cases today, while we are seeding a heady mix of LGUs in the top twenty list including Tagbilaran (in Bohol), San Fernando (La Union), and Kalibo (in Aklan).
In NCR, Quezon City continued its triple digit reports and stayed in number one.
With 5 laboratories (making up 2.2% of the testing results) failing to submit last July 7, the Health Agency reports 5,881 new cases today (about 400 more than yesterday), from more than 50,000 tests done for an 11% positivity rate. With more cases than recoveries reported, the active cases remain above 50,000.
There are 70 new deaths reported, placing the case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.82%.
The NCR continued to lead once more, followed by its sister CALABARZON. NCR accounted for more than 13% of todays total cases. All regions except BARMM reported triple digits.
On a provincial level, Iloilo province, Davao del Sur and Laguna continued to lead. And evidently, Davao City stayed as over-all leader (but saw slowing down in cases) among all LGUs in the country. Quezon City, Iloilo City, Bacolod City, and Cagayan de Oro made up the top five.
Quezon City was back on the leader board with close to 200 cases, as several NCR LGUs saw a see saw in cases in its own locality. Six of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases for the day.
The OCTA Research Monitoring update for Friday, July 9, 2021 shows better numbers with a declining trend in reproduction numbers, ADAR, ICCUR and positivity testing in the Philippines. However, ICU utilization is still high in Davao City and Iloilo City, Reproduction number is still above 1.0 in Iloilo City, General Santos, Cebu City, Baguio City and Tagum, and General Santos City is seeing a positivity rate of 30% (3 of 10 who test are positive).
The Health Agency reports 5,484 new cases today for tests done last July 6, Monday, with 11.3% positivity rate. While this shows a continued slow down in cases, the deaths climbed quickly with 191 new death reported today. The case fatality ratio for outcomes stands at 1.82 percent.
Healthcare utilization is still higher on the national level compared to the NCR alone. This is in all categories – ICU beds, isolation beds, ward beds and ventilator use.
NCR is back in number one among regions today with more than 14% of the total new cases. And as erratic as the daily numbers go by region, Western Visayas and CALABARZON come in second and third.
Iloilo Province, Laguna and Davao del Sur remain the top three provinces in the country with most cases. And Davao City continues to be the LGU with most cases today.
As NCR gains ground to top the region with most cases, 8 of 17 LGUs are back in the top twenty cities with most cases. The shocker of the day is – LAS PIÑAS grabs the lead as the city in Mega Manila with most cases, overtaking Quezon City.
It’s been awhile since I’ve tracked the global numbers. As of July 7, 2021, the world has now passed the 4M mark for deaths attributed to COVID-19. And as the other countries begin to reopen their economies, the variants pose a threat to future surges, particularly in countries that do not have adequate vaccine supply.
The Health Agency reports 4,289 new cases for tests done last July 5 with 11.3% positivity rate. This pushes the total now to more than 1.45M COVID-19 cases. There were 4 laboratories that failed to submit results for this day.
While the low cases yesterday and today may be good news (hopefully it stays lower), the 164 new deaths reported today had pushed the case fatality ratio for outcomes (recoveries and deaths) a tad up from 1.81 to 1.82%. As repeatedly mentioned, death reports will always be late (anywhere in the world).
For the first time, since the beginning of the pandemic, NCR manages to slip to fourth rank as CALABARZON, Western Visayas and Davao Region each represent Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao as the top regions in each of the parts of the Philippines.
Davao del Sur, Iloilo province and Cavite are the top three provinces for the day.
On an LGU level, the top three does not even include a city in NCR. Davao City, Iloilo City and Bacolod City are the top three cities with most cases among the top 20 list. There are only 3 of 17 LGUs from NCR that even made it to the top twenty – which is very good news for the day. Laguna managed to include three cities in the top 20 ranking – Calamba, Santa Rosa and Cabuyao.
In the NCR, only Quezon City continued to report triple digits, while Navotas and Pateros continue their good job at maintaining single digit new cases.
Relative Joy 