The Health Agency continued to report the expected range of cases for a Wednesday.

With a 6.1% positivity from over 24K tests done last February 21, 1,534 new cases were added to the total COVID-19 cases in the PH. With a little more than 55K active cases, almost 92% were mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing. Note that of the 1534 cases today, only 1057 (69%) are fresh or recent (within the lat two weeks), with NCR, Central Luzon and CALABARZON as the major regions contributing to the cases.

It’s the deaths that’s really disturbing as 201 are added today. Of these, 34% occurred this February, while 59% of 118 were deaths in January 2022. The rest were from September to December 2021.

There were 109 duplicates removed from the total case count, where 99 were recoveries.

There were 187 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in actuality mortalities after final validation.

NCR continued to account for a little over 20% of the cases today with 315 cases. All other regions with triple digits reported less than 200 cases – CALABARZON 179, Western Visayas 161, Central Luzon 147, Central Visayas 112, and Davao Region 103. There were 19 ROFs positive for COVID19.

In the NCR, only Quezon City with 55 cases and the City of Manila with 53 cases. All other LGUs in NCR reported less than 50 cases with six LGUs reporting single digit – Las Piñas 5, Malabon 7, Muntinlupa 8, Navotas 4, San Juan 4 and Pateros 2. No LGU in Mega Manila had zero COVID today.

———————

Based on OCTA Research data (from Prof. Guido David), and despite the absence of the daily data drop the Department of Health, the current condition of the major highly urbanized cities in the Philippines show improving conditions in terms of risk levels. Majority of them are now low risk, including NCR, while a few remain in moderate risk.

Those in moderate risk are: Baguio City, Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, General Santos, Iligan, Iloilo City, Naga City, Puerto Princesa and Zamboanga City.

Those at very low risk (and a round of applause for them) are: Angeles City (Pampanga) and Lucena City (Quezon Province).

Notice, however, the inconsistencies in the positivity rates of each of these HUCs. While the over-all risk category may look good, one needs to consider whether the area even tests or not. Places like General Santos, Iligan, Naga, and Puerto Princesa have a very high positivity and would be difficult to make heads or tails on whether its low cases are attributed to an actual drop in cases or just the pure absence of testing. As we all know, if you don’t test, you don’t report.

Close but not close to triple digits as the Health Agency announces 1019 new cases based on 18177 tests with a positivity of 6.4% in the country. While NCR is seeing lower positivity rates, other regions in the country are driving up the extreme side of higher rates in spite of their lower numbers. They are not testing anymore.

The active cases are a little above 56K with almost 92% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing. The good news remains that the healthcare utilization rate is at low risk in most parts of the country.

Of the 1019 cases today, 96% (982) occurred within the last two weeks. The top regions in this period were NCR, Region IVA and Region 1.

There are 13 deaths added today. Of these, 6 occurred in February while 5 in January 2022. There were 2 days in 2021 – one in October and one in September.

Note that 260 duplicates were removed from the total case count. Of these, 240 are recoveries.

The DoH adds that one case was found to have tested negative and has been removed from the total case count and is a recovery.

There were 13 cases tagged as recoveries but were actually mortalities.

NCR accounted for 20.5% of the total cases in the country with 209 cases today. Only one other region had three digits – CALABARZON with 129 cases. All other regions reported two or single digit cases. Those with single numbers were: BARMM 7, MIMAROPA 9, and Bicol 5. Even Western Visayas, Central Visayas, CAR, and Davao Region saw double digit cases today.

In NCR, none of the LGUs posted more than 50 cases. Quezon City led the pack with 41 cases today, with Manila at 29 and Makati at 26. All other LGUs had less than 20 cases. Six LGUs reported single digits: Las Piñas 9, Malabon 5, Marikina 3, Muntinlupa 7, San Juan 3, and Valenzuela 4. Two LGUs had ZERO COVID cases – Navotas and Pateros.

—————-

Prof. Guido David provides an update on the status of NCR and the CALABARZON area for OCTA Research as shown in the infographic below.

Note the following: (1) the decline rate is slower now in Mega Manila compared to the past weeks. This means that the numbers may be plateauing at a certain level. The positivity rate is at 4.9%, which puts it now at low risk. The premise is, if the growth rate goes down to 0% at 200 cases, this means we will be stuck at that number of daily active cases.

Positivity rate remains at moderate risk in all the provinces in Region IVA except for Quezon which is at lowest risk with an ADAR of 0.51, Rt of 0.18 and a positivity of 3%.

The Health Agency continued to report fewer cases today, with 1427 new cases today from exactly 25K tests done with a 7.5% positivity last February 19. The active cases continue to drop and is now at a little more than 58K with 92.2% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the positives today, 97% occurred within the last two weeks with NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas leading the pack.

Sadly there are 79 additional deaths today. 84% of the deaths reported today (66) occurred this month, while 8 (10%) occurred last January 2022. The remaining 6% of deaths occurred in the months of September and October 2021.

There are 104 duplicates removed from the total case count, of which 98 were recoveries.

There were 52 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in actuality mortalities.

The National Capital Region accounted for 23.3% (higher than the previous weeks) of the cases in the country – mostly attributed to testing in the LGUs – with 332 cases today. Other regions reported less than 200 cases, with the following reporting triple digits: CALABARZON 173, Western Visayas 163, Central Luzon 131, Central Visayas 128, and Davao Region 109.

There are 17 ROFs positive in today’s report.

In NCR, Quezon City led with 68 cases followed by the City of Manila with 56. Most of the LGU reported 30 or less cases with only Malabon, Navotas, San Juan and Pateros reporting single digits. None of the LGUs in NCR reported zero case.

The Health Agency reports 1712 new cases based on 28,500 tests with 8.8% positivity (up from a previous of 7.9%) on February 18. Active cases drop to a little more than 60K with 92.4% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing. Of the cases reported today, 94% of them occurred in the recent two weeks (I do not know why the agency keeps counting a two weeks look back since the days for isolation, quarantine and recovery have been modified already). NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas led in the cases.

Of the 77 deaths, 2/3 occurred in February 2022 while 26% in January. In short 92% of the deaths reported today are recent, with the remaining occurring September and October of last year.

There were 100 duplicated removed from the total case count with 95 recoveries.

There were also 70 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact deaths.

The NCR continued to account for the highest share of cases in the Philippines as it has 369 (22%) cases today. This is followed by a distant second by CALABARZON (233). Others with triple digits were: Western Visayas (184), Central Visayas (163), Central Luzon (136) and Davao Region (113).

The City of Manila led the NCR with triple digits – 100 cases. No other LGU had more than 50 cases in Mega Manila. Six LGUs recorded single digit – Malabon (7), Muntinlupa (8), Marikina (6), Navotas (1), San Juan (1), and Pateros broke its ZERO COVID streak with 2 cases today.

Cases in LGUs in the province started to dwindle as well with no LGU reporting more than 50 cases.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Prof. Guido David has provided the latest infographic on the situation in the top Highly Urbanized Cities (HUCs) in the Philippines as of February 19, 2022.

The good news is that there is a continued decline in growth rate, but the National Capital Region (or Mega Manila) has slowed down in its decline. The ADAR and positivity rate in the NCR is at moderate risk (but has dropped from 8 to 6% this week). The city of Lucena in Quezon Province has the lowest overall risk, with an ADAR <1.0, Rt of 0.13, HCUR of 15% and positivity of 3%.

While the overall Rt is now very low (<0.5), the positivity rate is troubling because this may imply that the lowering numbers are ‘artificial’ due to non-testing. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that if you don’t test, then you won’t have cases. Notice that there are cities that have positivity at moderate risk and it’s mind boggling that there are still cities that have staggeringly high positivity rates including General Santos, Iligan, Naga, Ormoc and Puerto Princesa. These areas are not targeting the people that need to get tested or are not testing enough. While their numbers may be low, it’s because they are not testing and not testing means, there is not reporting as well.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines continues its declining cases, moving down to 20th or lower rank in Asian and 60th or lower rank in the world, as the omicron wave hits the global community.

The decline, however, was not a dramatic as two weeks ago as the positivity rate remains in moderate risk (and as pointed out above may be artificially driven because of under testing. The phenomenon of under testing and less surveillance is noted GLOBALLY and not limited to the country alone.)

The death rates are erratic as the DoH struggles with backlogs from the past year. Death will always be a lagging indicator, in the same way hospitalization is.

In Asia, South Korea overtakes Japan to take the lead with past 100K cases yesterday. Notice that the infographic below shows the number of new cases based on a 7-day rolling average. Most Asian countries are seeing record highs, especially those that have never experienced surges from variants of concern in the past. This includes the tiny country of Singapore and the semi-autonomous nation Hong Kong.

On a per capital (based on cases per 1 million population), Singapore by far takes the lead with 2670 cases per million population, while the Philippines has the least with 23 per million people. There are actually more cases figuratively and mathematically in Hong Kong than the Philippines.

There should be some respite from the Omicron surge in all these Asian neighbors soon. The effective reproduction rate for countries like Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines has significantly stabilized. Meaning, the current cases in Japan, for example, will most likely continue a slow downward trajectory the next week and continue this decline in the next 3 weeks. Indonesia saw rapid decline after 2 weeks of increase with Rt now at 0.86. The Philippines has the lowest Rt at 0.49, meaning this will provide more room for continued decrease in cases being reported in the last week of February 2022, in spite of the moderate risk positivity rate (which is also slowly decreasing in general).

It’s a weekend, and there’s good news and bad news.

The good news is that the positivity rate continued to drop and based on close to 28K tests done last February 17, the positivity rate is at 7.9%, bringing todays cases to 1923 new cases. And with more than 5000 recoveries, the active cases continue to decrease with 92.7% being asymptomatic or mild.

Of the 1923 cases today, 95% occurred in the last two weeks with NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon topping the regions.

Of the 198 deaths, only 25% occurred this February. The bulk of 70% (138) were from the month of January 2022. The remaining 5% were backlogs all the way from March – December 2021.

There were 100 duplicates removed from the total case count and 94 of these were recoveries.

There were also 176 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact mortalities after final validation.

NCR continued to lead among cases with 392 (>20%) for the day. The other regions with triple digits were CALABARZON (231), Central Luzon (195), Davao Region (187), Central Visayas (183), and Western Visayas (169). All other regions had double digit cases including ROFs that registered 21 positives today.

In the NCR, the City of Manila led with 74 cases followed by Quezon City with 67. Seven LGUs had less than 50 but more than 10 cases. Seven LGUs report single digits – Malabon 7, Mandaluyong 9, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 6, Navotas 2, San Juan 7, and Valenzuela 4. Pateros continued its ZERO COVID streak.

LGU outside of NCR with

The Health Agency reports 2232 new cases based on almost 30K tests with a positivity rate of 9.1% done last February 16. With slowing down of new cases, recoveries now almost follow the new daily cases. Hence the active cases are at around 65K with 93% of them being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Based on the DoH, 95% of today’s cases occurred within the last two weeks. Top regions in the recent two weeks were NCR, CALABARZON and Central Visayas.

There are 79 deaths announced today with only 16 occurring this February and 32 last January 2022. The remaining 39% were deaths from September to November 2021.

There were 100 duplicated removed from the total case count and of these, 95 are recoveries. Seventy cases previously tagged as recoveries were actually deaths after final validation.

The NCR continued to top the regions with 396 (17.7%) of the total cases today. This is followed by CALABARZON (252), Central Visayas (228), Central Luzon (189), Western Visayas (176), Davao Region (140), SOCCSKARGEN (124), Cagayan Valley (122), Ilocos Region (114), and CAR (113). All other regions reported double digit cases.

There are 25 ROFs who had positive results today.

In NCR, numbers were lower for some LGUs but some had higher cases than yesterday. Quezon City led the haul today with 77 cases followed by Manila 65, and Parañaque 41. All other LGUs reported less than 30 cases with 4 LGUs reporting single digit. The latter were: Malabon 7, Marikina 9, Navotas 8, and San Juan 4. Pateros is on a consecutive streak with ZERO COVID reported.

Highly urbanized cities (HUCs) outside of NCR with highest cases was Davao City with 78 cases and led the country with highest cases among all LGUs. Cebu City came in second with 68 cases today.

—————–

Data from Prof. Guido David in behalf of OCTA Research shows that NCR and all provinces in Region IVa showing low risk for these areas. With the continuing decline in growth, the ADAR is lowest in the province of Quezon at 0.64. Effective Rt is very low in all these areas. It is only the positivity rate that remains moderate in NCR and all provinces in CALABARZON, EXCEPT the province of Quezon where the positive rate is <5%.

Health care utilization rate continues to be very low risk for all areas except for Batangas which remains at low risk with 31% utilization rate.

The Health Agency announces 2196 new cases based on close to 30K cases with 9.7% positivity rate last February 15. Of the announced cases today, 95% occurred in the last 2 weeks with NCR, Western Visayas and CALABARZON topping the regions.

The active cases now drop to a little more than 66K with 93% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of swabbing.

Sadly, 107 deaths are added today. Of the deaths noted today, 70 occurred in February (and that’s a lot), 19 in January 2022. The rest (or 17%) occurred in June to December 2021.

The NCR accounted for 18% (398) of the country’s cases today. This was followed by Western Visayas 308, Central Visayas 231, CALABARZON 229, Davao Region 176, Central Luzon 154 and Northern Mindanao 108. All other regions reported double digit cases today.

There were 15 ROFs (returning overseas Filipinos) that were positive for COVID19.

In the NCR, all LGUs reported double or single digit, except for Pateros that reported ZERO case. The City of Manila led the pack with 70 cases followed by Quezon City with 57, Pasay City with 37. LGUs with more than 10 but less than 30 cases were: Caloocan (27), Las Piñas (18), Makati (29), Malabon (10), Mandaluyong (28), Muntinlupa (10), Parañaque (28), Pasig (29), Valenzuela (16) and Taguig (20).

LGUs with single digit were: Marikina (8), Navotas (4), and San Juan (7).

HUCs (highly urbanized cities) outside of NCR showed Davao City with 63 cases followed by Negros Occidental with 56, Cebu City 55, Negros Oriental 47, and Iloilo City with 41 cases.

The Health Agency announces 2671 new cases based on more than 25K tests done last February 14. However, this is the first time that the positivity rate tips below the 10% level with a 9.6% positivity rate today. With more recoveries than active cases, the active cases now drop to a little above 68K (with more than 93% being asymptomatic or mild). Of the new cases today, 98% occurred in the last two weeks, with NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon leading the regions with most cases.

There are 77 deaths added today. However, only 63% of today’s announced deaths occurred in January (16 or 21%) and February (32 or 42%). The remaining 37% were deaths that happened from May to December 2021.

The NCR had a spike in cases today jumping more than 100% from yesterday’s 301 cases to 632 cases today. Which meant that NCR owned 24% of the total cases today. Other regions with triple digits were: Ilocos (138), Central Luzon (289), CALABARZON (327), Western Visayas (270), Central Visayas (171), Zamboanga Peninsula (100), Davao Region (128), and SOCCSKARGEN (154). All other regions reported double digit numbers.

There were 24 ROFs that were positive today.

In the NCR, it was Quezon City that reported triple digits with 114 cases. This was followed by Manila 82, Makati 52, Taguig 50 and 56 UNKNOWN. All other LGUs reported less than 50 cases, with only 3 LGUs reporting single digit – Malabon 9, San Juan 8, and Pateros 3.

HUCs with high cases today were: Iloilo City 64, Davao City 48, Cebu City 30 and Baguio City 24.

——————-

Prof. Guido David (through OCTA Research) provides information on the positivity rates in NCR and all provinces in Region IVA (CALABARZON). As the numbers in both NCR and CALABARZON continue the decline, only Batangas remains in moderate risk because of the relatively higher Health Care Utilization Rate (36%) and a 10% positivity rate. The rest, however, are at low risk with the province of Quezon having an ADAR <1, Rt of 0.19, HCUR at 9% and positivity at 4%!

The Health Agency announces 2010 new cases with a positivity rate of 10.4% from 20K plus tests done last February 13. The positivity rate is still high as it is over the 10% mark. Of the cases today only 78% occurred in the past 2 weeks are reported today. Top regions were: NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas.

The number of actives drop to 72K, with 93.5% being mild to asymptomatic at the time of testing.

Of the 52 deaths ALL (100%) occurred in January and February 2022 (with 56% occurring in February vs 44% in January).

There are 12 duplicates removed from the total case count. Of these, 9 are recoveries.

There were 34 cases previously tagged as recoveries but reclassified as deaths after final validation.

NCR will always account for a majority of the daily haul of COVID19 cases, because of its inherent capacity to test and of the larger population in the smallest region in the country. Today, Mega Manila had 301 cases (15%). Other regions with triple digits were CALABARZON (230), Western Visayas (205), Central Visayas (193), CAR (179), Davao Region (173), Central Luzon (156), and SOCCKSARGEN (106). All remaining regions reported double digits.

Sixteen ROFs were included among today’s positives.

In NCR, the following LGUs reported more than 20 cases: City of Manila (51), Quezon City (46), Pasay City (29), Makati and Parañaque (26) each, and Muntinlupa (23). All the rest had either <20 cases but double digit numbers. There were 5 LGUs with single digit: Malabon (7), Marikina (7), Navotas (2), San Juan (4) and Valenzuela (8). Pateros had ZERO case.

HUCs (highly urbanized cities) outside of NCR saw Davao City with 80, Baguio City with 61, Cebu City with 44 and Iloilo City with 35 cases today.

——————-

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Based on the data provided by Prof. Guido David, the risk level for NCR and Central Luzon has considerably improved and shows that NCR, together with majority of the provinces in Central Luzon are now at low risk in various variables: ADAR, Rt, healthcare utilization rate. Only positivity rate remains moderate to very high in all (except for the province of Zambales), which shows us testing in these areas.

For the leading HUCs (highly urbanized cities) in the country, majority are at moderate risk, except for Iloilo City that remains as high risk. The ADAR of Baguio City and Iloilo City remain high, while Lucena and Olongapo are now low. The reproduction rate is very low for all the HUCs except for Puerto Princesa which is low. Health care utilization rate impacts on Iloilo City the most, followed by Tacloban City and Zamboanga City. The positivity rate is all over the wall. Which puts each HUC anywhere from low risk (Angeles, Lucena and Olongapo), moderate (NCR, Bacolod, Cebu City, Dagupan, Lapu Lapu City, and Tacloban City), high (Baguio City, Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, Mandaue, Isabela, and Zamboanga City) and very high (Butuan, Cotabato City, General Santos, Iligan City, Iloilo City, Naga City, Ormoc, and Puerto Princesa)

The Health Agency reports 2730 new cases based on 28620 tests and 10.7% positivity rate last February 12. Of the cases today, 2627 or 96% of the cases today were within the last 2 weeks. Top regions with most cases were NCR, CALABARZON and Central Visayas in this interval.

Active cases drop to a little more than 76,000 as the cases continue to decline, with almost 94% of the active being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

The shocker on Valentine’s Day 2022 are the 164 deaths. Note that of the 164 – 52% or 86 occurred in February while 52 (32%) in January. The remaining 16% were from July to December 2021.

There were 68 duplicates removed from the total case count. Of these, 52 are recoveries. There were 121 cases previously tagged as recoveries were reclassified as deaths after final validation.

As the third week of February opens, it is NCR that continued to haul in 18% of the total cases or 485 of the 2730 for the day. The positivity rate in the NCR is at 8%, slightly lower than the national positivity rate of 10.7%. Other regions with more than 200 cases are: CALABARZON (345), Western Visayas (266), Central Visayas (294), and Davao Region (285). All other regions reported either less than 200 cases per region or double digits. Those with double digits were: BARMM (32), CARAGA (49), Cagayan Valley (94), MIMAROPA (20), Bicol (30), Eastern Visayas (41), Zamboanga Peninsula (69), and Northern Mindanao (98).

In the NCR, only Quezon City continued to haul in triple digits with 108 cases today. The City of Manila reported 69 cases, while the rest of the LGUs in NCR had less than 50 cases with four LGUs reporting single digit – Malabon (6), Navotas (7), San Juan (5) and Pateros (2).

HUCs (highly urbanized cities) with more than 50 cases today were: Davao City (97), Cebu City (78) and Baguio City (74).

There were 30 ROFs (returning overseas Filipinos) who tested positive.

Tomorrow is a Tuesday…let’s hope the Tuesdays remain a good run for low days…