Relative Joy

The year isn’t really starting on the right footing. With cases rising exponentially, the Health Agency announces 10,775 new cases based on 44,643 tested with an astounding 31.7% positivity. This trajectory of positivity and new cases are mostly concentrated in the National Capital Region for now. The active cases now are almost 40,000 with 85% of these being mildly ill. It will be awhile before we see any plateauing as the positivity rate is rising by >5% daily.

There are 58 added deaths today.

Hospital utilization is markedly up at 45% while ICU utilization also is up at 37% in the National Capital Region. A few more days with this exponential rise and we would be eventually filling up the healthcare capacity.

NCR accounted for almost 70% of the total cases (again) today with 7,479 of the 10,775 new cases today. CALABARZON is up at 4 digits as well and Central Luzon and Western Visayas have triple digits. Quezon City grabs a hefty lead with 1,781 cases and the City of Manila in second with 1,407.

Six provinces report triple digits today, led by Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan and Laguna.

Fifteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20, with 2 reporting double digits and 14 reporting triple digits. The disproportionate upward trajectory of cases has caused concern among Filipinos who are panicking over the rapid exponential rise in cases.

Tuesdays are usually low cases days. That’s because these are tests done on a Sunday. Today was an exception to the rule as the Health Agency announces 5,434 new cases based on 24,855 tests done last January 2, a Sunday, with a skyrocketing 26.2% positivity rate. There are cases that are still being validated, so the unreported cases today will still be reckoned in the days to come. With today’s numbers, the active cases jumps close to 30,000 with 80% of them being mild. Notice, however, the jump in hospital utilization in the NCR to 36% and the ICU to 35% from a previous 25%.

And no, there is no plateauing yet. It so happened that the reported cases yesterday and today were from January 1 and 2 – both holidays.

There are 18 added deaths today.

NCR kept the lead as it continued to account for >70% of the total cases in the country. This time, Quezon City overtakes the City of Manila to lead with 999 cases vs. 786. Notice, however, the pace in the rise of cases in the regions of CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, and Laguna report triple digits.

Fifteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 LGUs with most cases, with 12 of the Mega Manila cities reporting triple digits today. The city of Cainta in Rizal topped the provincial LGUs with 104 cases.

The numbers really look bad. While there are fewer cases today (and hopefully tomorrow but I don’t think that we will have a low Tuesday) than yesterday, the number of individuals tested was far far less because the announced numbers are based on tests done on January 1, 2022, a holiday.

At the beginning of the year, 18,587 tests were done with a positivity rate of 20.7%. This pushes up the active cases close to 25,000! The active cases are mostly mild in almost 80% of them.

Hospital utilization is up and the ICU beds are now at 29% (although still low risk) in the NCR. If the cases continue to rise, so will hospital utilization eventually. And the very steep rise is not about to abate anytime soon. Everyone needs to do their part in making sure that when they are sick or feel sick, to isolate and get tested NOW!

An additional 16 deaths were added today.

The NCR continued to account for more than 70% of the total cases in the country with 2,849 new cases. The city of Manila and Quezon City kept the lead with 694 and 595 cases respectively. CALABARZON and Central Luzon continued to tail NCR with all the other regions keeping low numbers.

Cavite keep the lead among provinces with most cases.

Fifteen of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases, with 12 of the 15 reporting triple digits. Five of the LGUs in the list are from Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.

The holiday rush, and the combined forces of delta and omicron changed the landscape of the pandemic in the Philippines within a 7 day period. The exponential rise in cases is a major cause for concern because of its potential effect on both the healthcare system and economy.

The Health Agency reports a positivity rate of almost 20% for December 31, where only 26,122 tests were done resulting in 4,600 new cases announced today. This pushes the active cases past 21,000 and the mild to more than 75% of the total active cases.

There are 25 additional deaths announced today.

The NCR continued to see rising cases as the region accounted for 72% of the total cases today with the City of Manila accounting for almost 30% of the share of cases in NCR. Cases in CALABARZON and Central Luzon are also up.

But it is Mega Manila that is at the eye of the storm.

All LGUs in NCR, except Pateros, are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day, with 11 of 17 LGUs reporting triple digits. The rise in cases do no include patients who self test with antigen kits in their homes. These are all data only from RT-PCR, so the numbers may even be higher.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

There will be a mix of data for this week because within a 7 day period, the numbers exponentially rose in the country. From a daily average of < 300 cases, yesterday ended with 3,610 or more than an 12x rise of new cases (and an increase in positivity rate from 0.9% to 16%) within the same time interval.

In summary, you’re really not going to see the worse of data this week. Undeniably, these numbers will be sustained for awhile before it gets better. The problem is that 70% of the total national cases are concentrated in the NCR, which is always the driving force or the epicenter of this pandemic in the Philippines.

While the effective reproduction rate as of December 27 shows the increase in Rt of the Philippines, it jumped from lowest Rt last week to third highest in select Asian countries as of this date. With the increase in cases, the country will most likely see a rapid increase in reproduction quicker than expected.

2022 starts off with 3,617 new cases based on close to 30,000 tests done last December 30, a holiday, with 14.8% positivity rate. The large climb in positivity rate shows us that there will be continuing rise in cases in the upcoming weeks. The public is urged to make sure the minimum health standards are strictly observed, and when given the chance, to get vaccinated or booster shots as soon as possible.

Active cases are at more than 17,000 with 70% of them being mild cases. Hospital utilization rate at the National Capital Region is up, together with ICU utilization rate, but remains at low risk. Because hospitalization is a lagging indicator, we need to monitor this closely so that we can manage its appropriate use.

The NCR surges (and I am allowed to use that word now) with 70% of the total cases in the country on the first day of the 2022. The City of Manila is overwhelmed with 843 cases or 1/3 of the total cases in NCR belonged to this LGU alone. This is followed by Quezon City with 417 cases.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, Laguna and Batangas saw an increase in number of cases today.

All the LGUs in NCR are among the top twenty LGUs with most cases for the day, except for Pateros that recorded 13 new cases. There are three LGUs in Cavite and one from Rizal in the top twenty list.

Interesting is the breakdown in age. Notice that the pediatrics population (18 years old and below) made up more cases (12.5% or 1/8th of the total) compared to senior citizens (8%). The majority or more than 50% of todays cases? Those between 20-39 years old.

So here’s how the year ends.

The positivity rate jumps to 10.6% (really bad from 6%) overnight. And with a little more than 30,000 tested on December 29, 2021, the Health Agency announces 2,961 new cases, bringing the active cases to an astounding 14,233 with a sharp rise in mild cases.

The ICU rate utilization is slightly up, particularly in the NCR by an average of 2-3%.

There are 132 deaths added today.

While NCR accounts for almost 68% of the total cases today, notice how quickly CALABARZON and Central Luzon’s cases are climbing as well. The exponential rise in cases due to a combined force of holiday gatherings and the possibility of local transmission of Omicron and continuing transmission of Delta has placed a set back in our national effort at containing the pandemic in the country.

On a provincial level, the top five provinces today were from regions IVa and III.

And all LGUs in NCR, except for Pateros were in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day, led by the Cit of Manila with 571 cases and Quezon City with 366. Three other cities report triple digits today – Taguig, Makati and Caloocan.

No frills. Just the facts and we’re just doubling each day.

The Health Agency announces 1,623 new cases (still under reported) based on close to 31,000 tests done last December 28 with a 6.6% positivity rate. The active cases are up at close to 12,000 with many ‘fresh’ asymptomatic and mild cases, that is now up at 53.6%.

There are 133 deaths added today.

NCR accounted for more than two-thirds of todays case load. And while it now has more than 1,000 new cases, the adjacent regions CALABARZON and Central Luzon are seeing an uptick in their cases as well. The same pattern is clear, when NCR hiccups, its contingent areas become affected quickly. It will not be surprising to see these regions with increasing cases after the New Year. Regions IVA and III report triple digits today.

On a provincial level, Cavite, Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal, and Batangas are back in the top ten.

But it is the picture at the LGU level that makes the difference, where ALL LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases in the country, except for Malabon. However, all LGUs in NCR, including Pateros that has been reporting zero COVID cases for the past week, report double digit cases.

The City of Manila and Quezon City take the lead with 351 and 171 new cases apiece, respectively. And with this data, the Rt of the City of Manila is now at a staggering 4.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

When I say the numbers do not look good, I am not exaggerating. The OCTA Monitoring Report for December 30 shows a very steep trajectory of cases in Mega Manila, higher than the average daily cases over a month ago. And while we can go ahead and blame the dancing and prancing and holiday spirit, gatherings and reunions, one thing stands out clearly – the cases are up. Reproduction number its at 1.47 for Mega Manila, far higher than the national average. And the Rt is based on the reported cases (and we all know that there’s under reporting from the Health Agency).

Why is this of concern?

Primarily, the indicators pushed the NCR from very low risk status to moderate risk in a matter of just a week. Yes, 7 days. Some say that it was inevitable. I say, it was avoidable. 7-day average new cases are triple, testing is lower by 20%, the ADAR is up thrice, the positivity rate for testing is also up from 0.69% to 3.86%, and the Rt leapt thrice. While healthcare utilization rate is stable at just a 1% increase, we all know that HCUR is a lagging indicator.

The summary and recommendations may be a pill that’s difficult to swallow, as it is just a few hours before the New Year revelry. If plans need to change, then so be it. But I’m sure that even with the undercounting, many of the readers can relate to the fact that the rise in cases is real. And that your New Year plans have just been struck down.

For those who are still tagged “safe”, please, don’t waste a few hours of revelry on something we will all regret.

Stay safe!

Two days before 2022 and the Health Agency reports 889 new cases based on test 27,615 tests done with a 4.5% positivity rate last December 27. This means that there is a backlog of around 400 cases which most likely are still being verified or that patients may have been retested but are still testing positive and therefore are not included as a new case (which I think will not comprise the bulk of the unreported cases today).

The active cases are up at past the 10,000 mark as the number of mild and asymptomatic cases make a jump to 47.2%. The ICU bed utilization is also up by 1-2% nationally and in the National Capital Region.

There are 28 additional deaths.

The NCR accounted for almost two-thirds of all the 889 cases seen today. And as these cases remain underreported, NCR most likely would see a large uptick in new COVID-19 cases in the subsequent days. CALABARZON and Central Luzon is seeing a pattern of a slow uptick as well, and as NCR hiccups, so will the surrounding regions.

It is the City of Manila that is driving the troublesome data in the NCR, followed by Quezon City. Many of the LGUs are back in double digit form and all are reporting at least single digit cases. All LGUs in the top ten in the country are from NCR except for Zamboanga City. The lowest number of cases for the day is 20. And that’s a large leap from what used to be low single digit cases.

As the year draws to a close, the country is seeing slightly higher cases driven by a jump in the positivity rate and lower tests during the holiday season. This is primarily driven by Mega Manila that accounts for around 40% of the total daily cases.

The Health Agency reports 421 new cases today based on a paltry 18,122 tests done last December 26, with a positivity rate up at 2.6%. Note that a week ago, the positivity rate was at 0.9%. This pushes up the active cases to 9,750, with more than 56% presenting as moderate to critical. Majority of the new cases are mild cases. Only 5% of the active cases are asymptomatic.

Incidentally, 16 laboratories were unable to submit data, while 2 were non operational on December 26, making up 2.9% of all samples tested and 2.4% of positive individuals.

There are 2 deaths added today.

The NCR was responsible for 42% of the total cases in the country today and the only region with triple digits and is back on top as the region that is most unsettling. Notice, however, that CALABARZON and Central Luzon is seeing an upward bump also in its cases. The pattern is clear. When NCR jumps, so do Regions IVA and III.

Among provinces, it was the province of Bulacan that led with 25 cases and all other provinces in the top ten with double digits.

In NCR, it was the City of Manila that is now the epicenter of the cases in Mega Manila, with 66 new cases or 37.5% of the total cases in NCR. Four additional LGUs in NCR see double digits – Quezon City, Makati, Parañaque and Caloocan City. Among the top 10 LGUs in the Philippines, the fewest number of cases is 5.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

The holiday revelry tests the resiliency of the densest region in the country – Mega Manila. With close to 14M people residing in an area of 660 square kilometer, this tiny region is the epicenter of the COVID-19 cases in the country. And with all the hustle and bustle of the holidays, in spite of the mandatory work on December 24 and the upcoming 31st of the month (days that used to be holidays by decree of the President), the mobility of the region shot up to pre-pandemic levels.

And so did its COVID19 cases.

The average new cases jumped from 77 to 126/day, with the ADAR up at 0.89 and the Rt approaching 1.0. Positivity rate is also up at 1.68% from a previous low of 0.48%. While five LGUs remain at very low risk based on the metrics for classification of covidactnow.org, ten LGUs are now at low risk (up from very low risk), and two are at moderate risk due to an increase in reproduction number. These two LGUs at moderate risk are the City of Manila, which saw a 121% increase in cases, and an RT at 1.57. The City of San Juan also joined Manila in the moderate risk category with an ADAR of 4.53 (remember that San Juan is a very small city), and an Rt at 1.82, the highest among all the LGUs.

The positivity rate for tests is up at 2.2% as the number of tests done last Christmas Day was less than 15,000. This is up from a low of 0.9% a few days ago, which means that unless people are positive, they won’t get tested. Which is not good. Remember, if you come in close contact with someone who is positive for COVID-19, you need to be in QUARANTINE and get tested. Just because you are vaccinated or do not have symptoms does not mean you are negative. That is being presumptuous.

In the meantime, with that few number of tests, the Health Agency announced 318 new cases today with close to 58% of the active cases of 9,579 being moderate to critically ill.

There are 11 additional deaths today.

The NCR continued to report triple digits as its Rt jumps from 0.44 (lowest in December 3) to 0.9 today an accounting for 41% of the total cases in the country. The trend has been an average share of 40% of the total national cases – which isn’t really a good sign considering that it’s been on the low 10-15% a few weeks back.

Again, on a provincial level, the top ten provinces continue to report less than 20 new daily cases.

On an LGU level, the City of Manila led once more with 38 (29.2%) of the total cases in Mega Manila. This was followed by Quezon City with 23, while Mandaluyong and Caloocan were the other 2 cities that reported double digits. These four cities in the NCR also were the only LGUs that reported double digit cases in the whole country today. The fewest cases in an LGU recorded today was 5.