Relative Joy

For the second day in a row, the cases are more than 400 as the Health Agency announces 433 new cases today. With fewer recoveries, the active cases are now at more than 9500. Todays numbers are based on a very low 21,116 tests done last December 24 with 2% positivity rate.

Thirteen deaths are added today.

NCR accounted for more than 50% of the cases in the country today with the City of Manila owning almost 28% of the cases in Mega Manila. Eight LGUs in NCR posted double digit cases.

Even the top 10 provinces continued to see low cases (<20) compared to NCR.

All LGUs in the top ten recorded double digit numbers today and all except the City of Manila and Quezon City recorded less than 20 cases. The fewest number of cases in the top 10 LGUs today was 11.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

This year’s surge was a test of how variants can change the pandemic response game plan. As vaccines and therapeutics came into the picture, so did mutations in SARS-COV-2. And a game changer they were, as Delta and Omicron merged to become a perfect storm, overtaking gains in the discovery of vaccines. The bugs were (or should I say, are) one step ahead of humans, as the evolve for the same purpose we do – self-preservation.

After the discovery of Omicron in late November, the speed and stealth of this newest variant has upended the holiday season in many countries worldwide – particularly Northern America and Europe.

Back in Asia, that grappled through the summer with Delta, most of the countries are seeing a slowing down in their new COVID-19 cases. Other Asian countries are seeing an increase in numbers but are able to considerably manage a disproportionate surge.

It’s been a relatively stable week for the Philippines. It is important to remember, that considering the infectivity and course of disease for SARS-COV-2, the current data is reflection of being infected anywhere between the past 3-14 days. The Philippines continued to maintain a low 7-day average of cases, but the Health Agency couldn’t seem to grapple with how it would handle the delayed death reports as the data on deaths take a see saw swing the past months.

Compared to other select Asian nations, the Philippines is now second to the lowest in new cases (based on a 7-day average) in the region, but because of the unstable accounting on deaths, is in fourth spot among the same select countries. Vietnam has the highest cases and deaths per capita compared to all the other Asian nations. It is also the reason why Vietnam, once the darling of control for COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic by shutting its borders, is now last of 53 nations in the Bloomberg Resiliency Index.

The parameters on new cases, tests, positivity rate per capita and the current reproduction rate shows that the Philippines is holding up pre-holiday season data.

Reproduction rate in the same select Asian nations show that Japan is now up at 1.37. Note that Japan used to enjoy double digit cases, but is now seeing an average of 250-300 new daily cases, most likely due to the seasonal drift. While the Philippines may currently have the lowest reproduction number, it is Singapore that did an amazing job at being able to bring down its Rt to 0.57 in just a matter of 6 weeks. f course, arguably, it is much easier to contain a pandemic in a population of less than 6 million than in one where the population size is more than 110 million.

Anything can change drastically and dramatically in a week. The next report will come on a Sunday, a day after 2021 ends. How will the data hold up?

With a slight uptick in cases in the National Capital Region (including positivity rate), there is a cause to be worried. First, there are less people that tend to get tested during the holiday season. Second, since many may have been vaccinated (either partially or in full or even have received boosters), it is not far-fetched that people tend to put their guards down – congregate freely, get lost in the revelry, forget that minimum health protocols need to continuously be observed, and make wise informed choices on mobility at a time of a pandemic in spite of lower cases in the community. Third, many have the misconception that getting vaccinated is tantamount to not getting infected and that vaccinated people who get exposed to those who are infected will absolutely not get sick.

So yes, the numbers are slightly up with the Health Agency announcing 433 new cases based on a little over 25,000 tests with 1.6% positivity and more cases than recoveries for December 23.

While hospital bed utilization and ICU rates may be on the low side for now (if disease present mildly, hospitalization may not be affected yet or may be too early to track as patients who are sick do not necessarily need to be hospitalized). Note that there is an increase in the asymptomatic to mild infections (which can point to patients who have been vaccinated or have even had previous infections), which may not necessitate confinement, for now.

There are 137 deaths added today.

NCR continued its uptick in cases, this time with 201 new cases added – accounting for almost half the cases in the country for the report on Christmas Day. This was led by the City of Manila that accounted for 14% of the cases in Mega Manila and 6 other LGUs with double digits for the day. While the cases are not alarmingly high, the pattern of a slight uptick should be taken seriously as those tested are underreported, especially when little to no contact tracing is performed among those exposed.

On a provincial level, eight provinces report double digits but all had less than 20 cases.

All the LGUs in the top ten list report double digits except for the city of San Juan. The fewest cases in the top ten list is up, with the fewest at 9.

It’s just a few hours before we celebrate the most awaited occasion of the year – Christmas Day.

As we revel in the celebration, it is a gentle reminder that while we celebrate this most wondrous occasion of the year, let us make sure that it is done with utmost regard for minimum health protocols as we are all still in a pandemic.

I also call out everyone to extend their blessings to share with those most affected by Typhoon Odette that struck many parts of Visayas last week. Sharing with them our largesse is the best way to celebrate the birth of Christ.

The Health Agency reports 310 new cases based on 1.4% positivity (which is up from a previous <1.0%) with only 28,561 tests done on December 22. More cases than recoveries puts the active cases at 9,321 – with slightly around 60% of them moderate to critically ill.

There are 69 additional deaths today enough to push the total deaths to more than 51,000.

NCR had a small but worrisome rise in cases owning 42% of the total cases for the country today with 129 cases. Notice how all the other regions maintained lower cases with 9 regions reporting single digit cases. It’s been awhile since NCR saw triple digits and the Christmas rush has contributed to this rise (including positivity rate which is up in NCR as well).

On a provincial level, Rizal, Iloilo and Isabela had very low double digits but led among provinces.

And on an LGU level, NCR cities dominated 9 out of 10 spots in the top ten, with 5 of the NCR LGUs reporting double digits and the City of Manila reporting the highest cases at 31.

It’s two days before Christmas and the situation doesn’t look good for a festive occasion.

Many have departed for various holiday destinations. Others are leaving for a hometown reunion. And as the virus continues to evolve on its own, a world that is tired of all these health protocol mandates and quarantine and isolation requirements and whose economies have fallen face first on the ground is teetering on thin ice with Omicron on top of Delta.

Yesterday saw many countries with soaring numbers. The top five countries were: USA, UK, France, Spain and Germany. The US led in highest number of new deaths for a single day. Russia came in second with most deaths.

The Health Agency announces 288 new cases and with more cases than recoveries, the total recovered stay above 9,000. The new cases stem from more than 32,000 tests done last December 21 with a 1.1% positivity rate. Again, there were 13 laboratories that did not submit test results (2 not operation and 11 unable to submit data) and accounts for 9.1% of the total samples or 4% of the positive cases for the day.

An additional 65 people were announced to have died from COVID-19 (many of which are backlog reports).

The NCR accounted for the largest share today with almost 1/3 of the cases coming from this region and 4 cities – Las Piñas, San Juan, Quezon City and the City of Manila – contributing to the bulk of the data for Mega Manila.

Five provinces reported double digit cases (while less than 20), led by Iloilo and Negros Occidental.

Five LGUs all over the country report double digits today. The fewest cases in the top 10 LGUs was up at 6.

Three days before Christmas and the holiday rush is as real as it gets.

The traffic is heavy and malls and restaurants are full. The exodus from NCR will most likely be palpable tomorrow, but since the 24th and 31st are working days, people will really need to use their unused leaves for this purpose.

It is, after all, the holiday season and while the data show that the Philippines is able to keep the numbers low, we can all continue to make sure that these numbers remain low in spite of the urge to “celebrate” unabashedly the holidays.

With that reminder, the Health Agency announces 261 new cases based on close to 30,000 tests with a positivity rate of 0.9% last December 20. The active cases remain above 9,000 as the moderate to critical cases now make up more than 60% of the actives.

There are 122 additional deaths today.

NCR recorded 31% of the cases today with 80 new cases, led by the City of Manila with 17 and Quezon City with 16. The data may not be a clear reflection on the actual cases in the country as several laboratories in the Visayas area affected by Typhoon Odette are not reporting tests (and the community may not be testing as well).

Zamboanga del Sur, Pangasinan, and Rizal provinces report double digits while the rest in the top 10 are single digit cases.

Fewest number of cases for an LGU to be in the top 10 LGUs for the day is 4.

The Health Agency reports 168 new cases (an all time low even during the beginning of the pandemic), with close to 23,000 tests done and 0.9% positivity last December 19. There are backlogs, which were not included in todays report. There is a very slow reconciliation of the status of the remaining 9,384 cases as close to 60% belong to the moderate to critical category. This is not in congruence with the data on ICU utilization in both the NCR and nationally.

Ten deaths are added today.

NCR recorded 47 cases today, will ALL LGUs in the NCR reporting single digit cases. The cities of Manila, Quezon City and Taguig equally contributing 7 cases each. Notice that there are fewer cases in Visayas and Mindanao due to the typhoon, affecting operating of “20 laboratories” based on the DoH report.

Cavite and Negros Occidental report double digits.

The fewest cases for an LGU to be in the top 10 is 4 for today.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

As Christmas draws nearer, the numbers in the country and in Mega Manila continue on a downward trajectory. Which is, a good sign. It has been quite awhile that we’ve seen numbers this good – the ADAR is very low at 0.55, a Rt of 0.48 (for the past month with many cities even lower than 0.30), ICU utilization that is very low in most cities and a positivity rate of 0.6%. These numbers tell us one thing – that we will still see a lowering of cases in the upcoming week. And with the new cases averaging 78/day (7-day average), this should be a joyous occasion which should be celebrated with caution in order to usher in a perfect year for an economic rebound.

The holiday week and the malls are packed. The traffic is horrible. And as we revel in the season – please make sure that you still follow minimum health standards. If you’re not vaccinated, you are encouraged to be part of the herd.

The Health Agency announces its third Omicron variant case in an unvaccinated OFW traveling from Egypt via Qatar.

Today, there are 263 new cases from 28,438 tests done last December 18 with a 0.8% positivity rate. There are 17 laboratories with no submitted data amounting to 7.8% of the tested samples and 4.1% of positive individuals. The active cases are around 9500 with 58% of them classified as moderate to critical.

An additional 45 deaths are announced today.

While the NCR accounted for majority of the cases again, but it was the ROF (returning overseas Filipinos) that came in second with 57 cases! But wait, there’s more! Those 57 cases of the ROFs should actually be only 2. Fifty five of the 57 cases were ALL in July 2020. A backlog of almost 1 1/2 years, reported today. In short, had the data been real-time, there would be only 208 cases for today. More regions are now reporting single digits (which is good news).

Even on a provincial level, only three provinces report double digits, led by Zamboanga del Sur, Cavite and Rizal. The fewest cases among the top ten provinces had only 4 cases reported.

Among LGUs, the City of Manila has been in the lead the past few days and continued that lead among all LGUs in the country with 18 cases. All other LGUs report single digits – including Quezon City. Malabon, San Juan and Pateros continue to report zero (0) cases.

There are 203 new cases announced today by the Health Agency based on close to 29,000 tests with a positivity rate of 0.8% last December 17. The active cases remain at four digits (but can truly be lower if the Health Agency is able to resolve the backlog in cases. Notice that among the active cases, close to 58% are moderate to severe. Many of these were from 2020 to October 2021.)

There are 64 additional deaths announced today.

[Note: 45 laboratories did not submit data today, which accounted for at little more than 15% of tests and 1.8% of positives. These labs were mostly in the areas hit by typhoon Odette.]

The NCR accounted for 25% of the data of the day with 55 cases, mostly from the City of Manila that had 14 cases. Only a few regions had reported cases, especially in the Visayas and Mindanao because of the recent typhoon.

On a provincial level, only 4 provinces had low double digits and even among cities and municipalities, only 2 had double digits yesterday – the City of Manila and Dumaguete City.

THE WORLD IN REVIEW

As Christmas fast approaches, every nook and cranny is filled with revelers and the Philippines, which is making headway with the pandemic is in a semi-festive mood. After all, this Christmas is unlike last year where we all hunkered down in fear and where the numbers were up at more than 1250 new daily cases.

The graph below shows the daily new cases per capita (per million population) in the world. If you look closely, the world is averaging at least 80 new daily cases per million. But it is the European countries and the UK that is leading the pack with a trajectory unseen from last year. UK hits almost 1,000 new cases per million population or 1 in every 1,000 people have COVID-19 every day. France, Spain, Germany and Portugal – all countries in Europe – round up the top five countries in the world with most daily cases per capita. The surge in these areas pale compare to the surge that is ongoing in South Africa.

On the parameter of death, Russia leads with 7-8 deaths per million population. While we are seeing rising cases in South Africa, their deaths per million are lower than the Philippines. The average deaths in the world is at 0.87 deaths/million population.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines is on a streak, and hopefully continues that way. Any slight glitch in how we are addressing this pandemic through an act of complacency will wipe out any gains made. It will simply be – BACK TO SQUARE ONE – for both the economy and healthcare.

For now, the 7-day average drops to 180 cases/day and deaths are at 87/day. The latter is mostly due to backlogs.

In a nutshell, the country is seeing 1.83 new cases/million population. Positivity rate is down to to 0.59% for a 7-day average and reproduction rate at 0.4 (+/- 0.05). The numbers are encouraging and with a Rt this low, there is still room for the numbers to continuously move down because of the low positivity rate.

Compared to select Asian nations, the Philippines remains one of three countries recording single digit cases per million, aside from Japan and Indonesia. Vietnam and South Korea lead the pack in terms of new confirmed cases and deaths per capita.

In terms of reproduction rate, Japan is up at 1.16 and South Korea at 1.12. But the increase in Rt of Japan is expected as they plateau at low numbers already. A Rt of 1.16 with 200 daily cases is not bad. With the winter season, countries in the northern hemisphere are expected to have a slight uptick in cases. Unlike Japan, however, the average daily cases in South Korea is at 6800. A Rt of 1.12 simply means that they will continue to see cases around this number with a potential to see a rise in the coming days.

The Health Agency cleaned up the new cases with yesterday’s report (see yesterday’s blog regarding the backlogs).

And announces 291 new cases (still with some lag, which will eventually get corrected in the future) based on 35,527 tests with a positivity of 0.9%. The 7-day average is now at at less than 200 cases/day. And with more recoveries than cases, the active cases touch the four-digit mark at 9,924. More than 56% of them are moderate to severe (and are backlogs which need to be accounted for).

There are 106 additional deaths today.

The NCR had 67 cases today. And while Las Piñas led among all LGUs with 13 cases in Mega Manila, 12 of these cases were backlogs – 9 in October, 2 in September and 1 last April 2021. Essentially, Las Piñas had only ONE case yesterday. However, it was not the same story for Iloilo, where the municipality of Pototan recorded the most cases on a city/municipality level all over the country.

So while Las Piñas was the only LGU in NCR that officially recorded double digits, in reality, it had only one ‘fresh’ case. This means that all LGUs in NCR had less than 10 cases for today.

With Typhoon Odette slamming most of the provinces in the Visayas, I hope that this will have minimal effect on the COVID-19 cases in the area, particularly among the evacuation centers.

I started off this blog with that news mainly because some people may attribute the increase in cases to the storm. The increase in cases today was due mainly to backlogs (which I said would be included in the subsequent days).

The Health Agency announces 582 new cases based on 33,535 tests done last December 15, with a 1% positivity rate. With more cases than recoveries, the active cases remain above the 10,000 mark. In addition, more than 55% of the active cases are moderate to severely ill.

There are 74 additional deaths today.

The cases today had more than 200 backlogs added, with most of them coming from NCR , CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The NCR owned 30% of the cases today with 174 new cases, followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. All other regions registered less than 50 cases, with 6 regions reporting single digit.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal and Batangas owned the most cases with more than 30 cases apiece.

Nine LGUs in NCR were in the top 10 today as Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan City, Valenzuela, Taguig and Las Piñas reporting double digit cases.

The breakdown in the number of backlog cases reported for the top three regions are as follows: