The Health Agency reports 289 new cases today based on more than 37,000 tests done last December 14 with a positivity rate of 0.9%. There has been some discrepancies in the past few days and we should see a correction in the number of new cases, hopefully within the week. As the number of recoveries are minimal, the number of active cases remain above 10,000. The moderate to critically ill are more than 56% now.
There are 47 additional deaths today, mainly from backlog reports.
While the cases remained less than 300 in the country, NCR contributed to more than 30% of the total cases for the day. Other regions report 30 and less cases with 7 regions reporting single digits.
Even on a provincial level, while Cebu province, Zamboanga and Negros Oriental had 13 cases apiece, this was still low numbers.
Quezon City and the City of Manila had the most cases on an LGU level, with numbers even more than the top provinces today.
There was no way we could get away from Omicron. After all, 65 countries have reported its presence – either at its borders or as community transmission.
What we know about it is that it seems to take on a milder course than delta. But a shorter incubation period with a milder presentation can be dangerous for those who are unvaccinated because the spread will be more rapid. With barely less than 40% of the eligible population fully vaccinated, that leaves quite a greater percentage at risk. With the multiple mutations of Omicron, the monoclonal antibodies specific for this variant does not seem to be that effective at alleviating the course of the disease. Vaccine efficacy may pose a challenge as well. One study from Hong Kong shows that Sinovac, even at complete doses, do not seem to offer protection against a variant with multiple mutation points. Finally, there is data that points to the fact that patients who have previously had COVID-19 are at risk for getting reinfected with Omicron, albeit mildly, but no one really knows how the course will be in the more vulnerable population.
We stay vigilant and make sure that we practice minimum health standards ALWAYS. And even if it is the Christmas holidays, let’s make sure that we get vaccinated (for those that have not even received a single shot) so that we can keep ourselves protected and keep those masks on at all times. If you do not need to go to a Christmas party, don’t. Superspreader events, staged by political rallies should be avoided. After all, these politicians will not pay for your health care – or your funeral.
With that said, the Health Agency announces, 237 new cases today based on a little over 30,000 tests and 1% positivity last December 13. With more recoveries, the active cases remain on a decline and are just a tad above 10,000. Close to 57% of the actives are moderate to critical.
There are 100 deaths added today, majority of which are backlog reports.
NCR accounted for 20% of today’s total with 48 cases. Surprisingly it was Northern Mindanao that came in second with 27. Seven regions report single digits.
On a provincial level, it was Lanao del Norte that led the pack with 24 cases. Iligan City topped the LGUs with 22 cases and was the only LGU that had more than 20 cases. Three provinces had double digits, including Zamboanga del Sur and Iloilo. Three LGUs also had double digits, with Quezon City and Zamboanga City added to this list.
It’s a Tuesday. And a good day to announce this kind of data.
So we have 235 new cases, our lowest since April 26, 2020 based on 24,120 tests done last December 12, with a positivity rate of <1.0% (again our lowest). The active cases are slightly above 10,000 and at this trajectory, we should see active cases fall into the four digits this week. Unfortunately, more than 55% of the active cases are moderate to critical.
There are 10 deaths added today.
The NCR had one of the lowest cases in the whole pandemic with just 53 cases. All other regions reported double and single digit cases.
Only four provinces had double digits with 12 and less cases, while the others in the top 10 are single digit cases.
Among LGUs, only three cities report double digits – Manila, Quezon City and Davao City. The other top 10 LGUs have single cases with 3 cases as the fewest today.
The week before Christmas week begins on a good note with 360 new cases based on close to 36,000 tests done last December 11 with a 1.1% positivity rate. The active cases continue to decline but is still relatively high as the backlog among these remain unresolved. This accounts for the close to 55% active cases falling under moderate to critical category.
Additional 61 deaths (mostly from backlogs as well) are added today.
With lowering cases, beginning this issue, the LGU will feature only the top 10 for the day. Other presentations – by region, NCR and by province will remain the same.
NCR reports 65 cases today or 18% of the total cases in the country. All other regions report less than 35 cases, with three regions having only single digit cases.
Among provinces, Negros Occidental led with 23 cases while all the rest had 20 cases or less.
On an LGU level, Quezon City and General Santos were the only ones with double digit cases at 13 apiece. All other LGUs report single digit with 6 cases as the fewest in the top TEN list.
In NCR, only Quezon City had double digit cases with all the remaining cities reporting single digit cases and three LGUs having ZERO covid. They latter are: Navotas, San Juan, and Pateros.
OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT
Of course the week needs to start with some good news first. In a region of close to 15M people, having 91 new daily cases is the icing on the cake.
All 17 LGUs in the NCR are at either low or very low risk. Only the cities of Muntinlupa, Quezon City, Malabon and Makati are at low risk, while the rest are at very low risk. This is because while the cases in Muntinlupa City average 2/day and continues to have a decrease in growth, an ADAR of 0.37 and an R of 0.29, its health care utilization rate is at 37% and the ICU rate is moderate at 61%. The hospital that leads in the ICU rate based on the website of the Department of Health is Ospital ng Muntinlupa. Strangely, Ospital ng Muntilupa has a 66.7% occupancy for their ICU (8 of 12), yet NONE of the patients in the hospital are moderate to critical. COVID-19 suspects are admitted to the ICU in Ospital ng Muntinlupa.
The other cities that are considered low risk are classified into this category considering their HCUR being above 30% and ICU rates at more than 30% as well.
The week closed with 402 new cases in the Philippines based on 1.2% positivity from close to 37,000 tests done last December 10. With just a few recoveries over active cases, the active cases are a tad above 11,000 – close to 54% being moderate to critically ill.
Additional 184 deaths are added today.
The NCR had 101 cases today, while all regions had less than 50 cases. Five regions had single digit cases. MIMAROPA was in second spot with 44 cases for today.
This is reflected on the provincial level as Palawan came in second among provinces with most cases for the day. All provinces in the top ten saw less than 20 cases.
Among LGUs, it was the City of Manila that stole the thunder from erstwhile leader Quezon City with 25 cases with the former and 20 in the latter. Puerto Princesa was the only other LGU with double digit cases at 10. All other LGUs in the top 20 saw single digit cases, with 3 being the lowest number in the list.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
Another good week with an all time low of less than 350 new cases/day based on the 7-day average for the Philippines. Sadly, the unreconciled outcomes of close to half of the remaining active cases is responsible for the highly erratic data on deaths. Why is there a need to get fixated on deaths? Because mortality from a disease provides a mirror of the healthcare capacity of a nation. It also reflects the data management capability of the health agency in providing more real-time information.
So yes, while the cases are more or less recent (with a few more backlogs that need to be reconciled), the deaths are not.
As a matter of fact, our deaths are so erratically high (and low), that computing for the moving-average case fatality rate is a pain for the Philippines. And in Southeast Asia (and the whole Asian continent for that matter), the Philippines owns the highest moving-average case fatality rate at 9.43%. Computing for the moving-average CFR is the ratio between the 7-day average number of deaths and the 7-day average number of cases 10 days earlier.
A snapshot of how the country is doing in terms of tests, positivity rate, cases and reproduction rate shows excellent data. Positivity rate is at an all time low at 1.23% (7-day rolling average), and Rt is at 0.57 (+/- 0.05). While it is slightly up, it means that cases continue to fall. When the Rt is up while the cases are low, as long as it does not exceed 1.0, it means that the numbers are plateauing. This data only means that we still have the potential to see even lower cases in the upcoming week.
Notice the Rt among select Asian nations. South Korea and Vietnam still have Rt >1.0. This is what it means. Vietnam is currently seeing an average of 15,000 daily cases. With Rt at 1.09, it will still see numbers within that range (14,000-17,000) the upcoming week. It needs to bring this down to <1.0 before it will see numbers drop. With South Korea that is seeing an average of 6,000 new daily cases and an Rt of 1.29, they will remain in an upswing and expect to see more cases in the next week. It is highly likely that they may even touch the 10,000 mark.
Japan has a Rt of 0.99. But it is seeing 120 new daily cases (based on the 7-day average). This implies that with the very low cases being seen now, they will remain seeing the same number of daily cases.
The remarkable story here is that of Singapore, which has managed to turn around its cases from a previous high of over 5000 cases in October to just 600 new daily cases (based on the 7-day average) as of yesterday. And with a Rt of 0.56, they may be able to see even lower cases in the upcoming week, just like the Philippines.
An overall comparison of cases and deaths for COVID19 among the same select Asian and ASEAN nations per capita (per million population) shows that the Philippines just has 3-4 new daily cases per million population. If we are able to tread below 1.0, then that would actually be a feat at how well the country is dealing with the pandemic. As mentioned above, the Health Agency needs to clean up its data on patients whose outcomes have not been accounted for since 2020. There is still quite a large number to deal with, particularly those who were severe and critically ill. This is the reason why the number of cases and deaths are disproportionate. This is also the reason why the country has one of the highest per capita deaths in the region.
The Health Agency announces 356 new cases based on more than 35,000 tests done last December 9 with a positivity rate that is an all time low at 1.1%. This brings the active cases down to a little over 11,000 (really can’t wait to see it drop to four digits next week). However, 54% of the active cases are moderate to critical in category. The 7-day average drops now to 318 cases/day as of December 10, 2021.
There are 135 deaths added today. This brings to more than 50,000 the recorded deaths due to COVID-19 (which most likely is even higher than this).
The 7-day average is down to 380 new cases/day as of December 9, 2021. The Health Agency also reports that around half of the hospitals in the country have not reported a case of COVID-19 for the past week and the One Command Hospital call center has seen a significant decline in calls. At this trend, should we be complacent with Christmas just around the corner?
While the country is enjoying lower cases now, it is not a time to drop our guard. As a matter of fact, this is a time to take stock of what is happening globally with Omicron, ongoing Delta surge and the season fluctuation of COVID-19 as a lesson to take stock and be prepared for any eventuality. As the Philippines has a surmountable amount of vaccines in stock, its citizens should take advantage of this situation and protect themselves and their families by getting vaccinated.
The cases of Omicron in South Africa among children were mostly from families whose adults in the household were unvaccinated. The outcomes for children and young adults will most likely be mild but the threat to the general population will remain a major concern unless we all get vaccinated soon. We all need to be part of the herd and cannot simply be kibitzers.
The Health Agency reports 379 new cases based on close to 36,000 tests done last December 8 and a positivity rate of 1.3%. Active cases drop below 12,000 with more than half of them moderate to critical in severity.
There are 25 deaths added today.
The NCR had 67 cases or accounted for less than 18% of the country’s total today. Three regions report single digit per region, while the rest of the regions in the country have less than 50 cases each.
Even on a provincial level, ALL provinces reported 20 cases and less, with Negros Oriental leading the pack.
More good news from the LGU level is that while Quezon City continue to lead the pack, it only had 14 new cases. As a matter of fact, only three LGUs had double digits – QC, Manila, and Davao City – all less than 15 cases. Only 7 of the 17 LGUs in NCR landed in the top twenty, where the fewest number of cases today was 3.
The Friday ends with the Health Agency announcing 562 new cases based on 33,295 tests done last December 7 with 1.6% positivity. Because December 8 was a public holiday, we should expect fewer cases tomorrow. The total number of active cases are now lower at a little over 12,000 with more than 53% being moderate to critical.
There are 176 added deaths today.
NCR accounted for 21.7% of the total for the day with 122 cases. Other regions with more than fifty cases are: CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Central Visayas. Only two regions had single digits – Bicol and BARMM.
Negros Oriental had the highest number of cases on a provincial level. All other provinces in the top ten had double digits cases.
Quezon City had 31 cases or more than 1/4 of the total cases in NCR. Three other LGUs in NCR report double digits – Manila, Pasig and Caloocan City. The remaining 13 LGUs have single digit cases. The fewest cases among LGUs in the country today is 5.
The Health Agency announces 370 new cases today based on close to 29,000 tests done with 1.6% positivity rate last December 6, 2021. The active cases drop to 12,510 with more than 53% of them falling into the category of moderate to critical.
There are 171 new deaths announced today.
The NCR saw 96 new cases today with Quezon City owning almost 30% of the total cases. Six regions report single digits, while the rest of the regions report less than 50 cases apiece.
Negros Occidental led among provinces with 23 new cases, and it was a breather to see three provinces in the top ten list reporting single digits.
Only Quezon City reported more than 20 cases, at 27. The rest of the LGUs had 12 or less cases. Thirteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 list, but notice that ALL the LGUs in NCR, except for QC had single digit cases. Four cases was the least number in the top 20 list today.
OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT
The good news is the very low risk category for NCR, the largest and most dense region in the country (and one of the most dense in the world) with just 105 new cases/day (based on the 7 day average from December 1-7). The R is at 0.34 (fantastic) while the positivity rate in Mega Manila is at an all time low of 1.1%! Only the city of Muntinlupa has moderate risk in terms of ICU rate utilization. Note that this is based on a total of 18 bed capacity for Muntinlupa City, with 12 beds still currently occupied based on data from the Department of Health. The three hospitals with ICU occupancy based on the data of the Department of Health are: Ospital ng Muntinlupa, Asian Hospital and Medical Center Muntinlupa.
As Omicron is spotted in more countries in Europe and additional states in the United States, we tiptoe on thin ice with what information we have so far. Most of the cases of Omicron are mild. The trajectory for infectiousness is high. The multiple mutations place it at higher risk for reinfections. So far, antivirals will work against this.
The Health Agency reports 356 new cases today, and our 7 day average is now at 382 cases/day (hurray). The current levels are teetering at our May 2020 numbers. With more recoveries, the active cases dip to 13,000 with more than half being in the moderate to critical category.
Today’s numbers are based on 24,360 tests done last December 5, with a 1.4% positivity rate.
An additional 92 deaths are reported today.
NCR had 68 cases today or around 25% of the total cases in the country. This was followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. Six regions had single digit cases.
Among provinces, all provinces reported less than 20 cases today, with 2 provinces in the top ten reporting only single cases. They are the provinces of Cebu and Bataan with 9 cases apiece.
Among LGUs, Quezon City had 23 cases, accounting for 1/3 of the cases in the NCR. All the other LGUs in the top 20 list reported less than 15 cases. The fewest cases for an LGU in the top 20 was 3 for today. Three LGUs in NCR had zero cases. They are: Las Piñas, Navotas, and Pateros.
Relative Joy 