Within the 6-7K this weekend, but the deaths are up on 05.22.2021

While the PH continued to report in the 6000+ range, the Health Agency reports an increase in both cases and deaths for the day. The DoH announces 6,831 new cases based on 13% positivity rate for May 20 data with close to 50,000 tests run. Notice, however, that while there is a slight uptick in ICU beds utilization for the country at 60%, there is a spike in the ICU bed occupancy for the NCR – from 56% to 61% (an overnight jump of 5%). Based on the condition of the cases at the time of swabbing/testing, almost 5% of the 54,526 active cases are moderate, severe or critical. The Health Agency does not track the clinical course of patients, hence, the data on clinical condition of the active cases are their clinical status at the time of the report. Some (or many) may have deteriorated (as a patient who may have been diagnosed to be asymptomatic at the time of swabbing may have progressed to critical state in a few days).

There were 183 new deaths today, bringing the 7-day average deaths to 115/day. The case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.77%.

NCR continued to lead in cases again today, it accounted for 20.6% of the cases. CALABARZON and Central Luzon reported four digits as well. The three regions were responsible for 54.4% of the total cases in the country today. Except for BARMM, all regions continued to report triple digits.

In NCR, Quezon City reported 313 new cases, with Pasig, Manila and Caloocan rounding up the triple digit contributors. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day. Cities outside of NCR that were among the top ten included: Zamboanga City, Cagayan de Oro City, Davao City, and General Santos City.

On a provincial level, Cavite and Laguna were the only cities that continued to rake in more than 300 cases.

Yesterday, four Asian countries were among the top twenty countries with most reported cases for the day (based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/). These were: Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan. They ranked between 13th to 16th spot for May 21, 2021. Other countries in Asia are seeing increasing cases also as has been reported by various news agencies. These include: Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

NCR Rt at 0.54, but are the other regions outside doing better? The update for 05.21.2021

The Health Agency reports 6,258 new cases today (up from 6,100 yesterday). However, this is considerably lower than the past week average as we probably will pivot around the 6K this weekend. With only a little over 2,500 new recoveries announced, the active cases are back to more than 55K (4.7%). Positivity rate for May 19 data is at 13%.

There were 141 new deaths today which pushes up the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.77% (from 1.76%).

ICU utilization is slightly down for the NCR compared to the utilization nationally.

Today, NCR reported a close to 1,400 cases (22%) of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON maintains its close second chase in numbers to Mega Manila. Notice, however, that for the first time, ALL regions in the PH report triple digit cases. The rise in cases outside of the NCR plus bubble is disconcerting.

In NCR, four cities continue to report triple digits, and this is led by Quezon City that has the highest number of daily cases nationally and by city. The other cities include: Manila, Pasig and Caloocan. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR make it to the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Two provinces in CALABARZON continue the haul among provinces with most cases – Cavite and Laguna – with more than 300 cases apiece.

The OCTA Research monitoring report for May 21, 2021 is reported in toto below. The good news is the lower reproduction rate for Mega Manila, which is now down to almost half at 0.54. The average cases per day from May 14-20 is around 1,300. Several LGUs in NCR have been downgraded from high to moderate risk based on ADAR (average daily attack rate). While Quezon City continued to rake in the most number of cases daily, its daily numbers have significantly declined from more than 1,200 cases to 250 plus cases per day.

Notice, however, the rise in health care utilization rate in cities outside of NCR. In particular, Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Cagayan de Oro, DasmariƱas (Cavite), Tuguegarao, San Pablo (Laguna) and General Trias (Cavite). The latter is almost 100% in HCUR.

The growth rates in other cities are also disturbing. The positivity rate in Puerto Princesa was extremely high at 87% during the last week.

Back to more than 6K on 05.20.2021

With close to 50,000 tests done on May 18, 2021, and a positivity rate of 12.6% for the country, the Health Agency reports 6,100 new cases for the day. And because there were less recoveries than cases, the active cases are up at more than 50,000 again (4.5%) as the NCR sees a slight bump in utilization of ICU beds to 59% (from a previous low of 56%).

With 135 new deaths today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes (recoveries and deaths) holds steady at 1.76%. Note, however, that the total number of deaths for March, April and May accounted for more than 1/3 of the total deaths in the Philippines since the start of the pandemic last year. At the current average deaths being reported by the Department of Health, we will breach 20,000 reported and recorded deaths in the next 5 days.

The NCR continued to account for 22% of the total cases in the country, followed closely by CALABARZON, both reporting quadruple digits. Twelve other regions reported triple digits, with MIMAROPA seeing a bump up in cases together with the Zamboanga Peninsula.

Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR continue to be among the top 20 cities with most cases. Quezon City, Manila, Pasig and Caloocan City report triple digits.

Laguna and Cavite, two provinces in CALABARZON stay as top contributors to the pool of COVID19 cases for the day.

Cases are increasing outside of NCR, with 05.19.2021 reporting 4,700 new cases

The good news is that the reproduction number in the NCR is down at an all time low of 0.54. With 4,700 new cases reported today by the Health Agency, the lower numbers (while it is a Wednesday) actually show a declining trend as vaccines continue to roll out (hopefully at a faster pace). The data reported data are based on 13.8% positivity from the reports last May 17. With close to 7,000 new recoveries, the active cases are lower at 4.3% (less than 50,000 cases).

New deaths reported are 136 for the day, with the case fatality ratio steady at 1.76%.

NCR continued to report less that 1,000 cases (but will most likely breach that again tomorrow as the real numbers come in). CALABARZON trails it closely with 912 cases. Twelve other regions report triple digits.

In NCR, it is Quezon City that continued to lead both nationally and on a city level with 222 new cases. Eight of 17 LGUS in NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, three provinces in CALABARZON continue to hog the top provinces with most cases – Cavite, Laguna and Batangas.

The latest OCTA Research update on the cities outside of NCR (yesterday we reported the good performance in the National Capital Region), show the top LGUs outside NCR with the most new cases (May 11-17). Notice that Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, and Iloilo City are seeing higher average increases. The average daily attack rate is highest in Tuguegarao at 28 per 100,000 population. Puerto Princesa, while seeing a decrease of 35%, is under reporting its actual situation as the city has a positivity rate of 87% as of May 16, 2021. Which means that 8-10 people being tested there are most likely positive. This is a problem of under (or not) testing (from whatever reason like no cartridges or the machines are not working or under maintenance) or not contact tracing enough people to get tested.

Less than 4.5K on the Tuesday of 05.18.2021

As all Tuesdays (and Wednesdays) have lower numbers, the new cases for the day are at 4,487. With more than 6,300 recoveries, this brings the active cases to 4.5% (still over 52,000 cases). Note that today’s report were based on tests for May 16 (Sunday) where testing facilities are not all operational.

There were 110 new deaths today. The case fatality ratio for outcomes remains steady at 1.76%. Intensive care unit utilization is greater nationally (57%) than the National Capital Region (56%). While ICU utilization is lower now in the NCR, there are still many hospitals where healthcare utilization is still more than 70%, which means that the average utilization is not reflective of every LGU.

On a low Tuesday, even the NCR had lower cases with less than 1,000 (for the first time in a long time) new cases. The trend was the same for CALABARZON. While only two LGUs in NCR reported triple digits, nine of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila still managed to make it to the top 20 cities with most cases. Sixteen of 17 regions in the country registered triple digits.

The update from the OCTA Research for May 18, 2021 showed improving numbers in the National Capital Region. The eight cities in Mega Manila whose risk status have been downgraded not to moderate risk are: Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Caloocan, Muntinlupa, Taguig, Pasay and ParaƱaque. All nine remaining LGUs are still at high risk. Note the negative change (decline) in average cases in ALL the cities in NCR, for the period May 11-17, 2021.

NCR sees lower numbers but still close to 6K for the PH on a Monday 05.17.2021

So the numbers are still within the 5K margin, but it’s on the high end with 5,979 new cases. With 6,602 recoveries notice that brings then active cases to 4.7% based on 13.1% positivity last May 15 and reported today. This also brings the discrepancy of utilization of ICU beds on the national level to 58% with the NCR down at 56%.

With 72 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes (recoveries and deaths) is steady at 1.76%.

The granular data shows that the NCR is trending lower than 1,500 so far with CALABARZON trailing it very closely. NCR accounts for 22%, while CALABARZON 21% of the total cases in the country. Thirteen other regions have triple digits for the day.

Ten of 17 LGUs in the NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases. Zamboanga City recorded 236 new cases, pushing them to second over-all among cities with most cases for the day. Puerto Princesa City (Palawan) is in 7th rank among cities with 114 cases.

Cavite, Laguna and Zamboanga del Sur are the top provinces for the day.

The OCTA Research monitoring reports today that NCR is now seeing less than 1,500 new daily cases. This is a decline of 27% for the period from May 10-16. The reproduction rate is at 0.57 with the positivity down to 11% and a daily attack rate down to 10.71 per 100,000 population overall for the region. Notice that 14 LGUs are classified as safe in terms for Health Care Utilization (< 60% utilization) and 7 LGUs are at moderate risk based on DoH guidelines as their average daily attack rates are <10 per 100,000 population. The report in full in provided below.

5K plus cases on 05.16.2021 still pushes the PH up at 24th in global rank

We’re definitely seeing a decline in cases and while the decline will never be a dramatic one, it is a significant stride as the Health Agency reports 5,790 new cases today. The positivity rate continued to hover at the 13% average for this week based on positives from laboratory reports of May 14. With over 7,500 new recoveries, the active cases have decreased to less than 5% with 54,904 active cases. With 1,143,963 total COVID-19 cases, the Philippines moves up to 24th in global rank overtaking Iraq.

Notice the difference, however, in intensive care unit beds in the whole country vs. the National Capital Region. With the increasing cases outside of NCR, the ICU bed capacity is now lower in Mega Manila compared to the whole country (57% vs. 58%).

New deaths reported today was 140, bringing the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) is steady at 1.76%.

For the week of May 9-15, 2021, the Philippines recorded 43,272 new cases and 777 new deaths.

The granular data by region, LGUs in NCR, top ten provinces and top twenty cities are provided below. Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top twenty cities. Palawan is under testing. Which makes this troublesome because testing is a reflection of the actual situation in the area. And this does not make the statistics accurate and therefore is highly disturbing as the data does not reflect the actual situation in the country.

The summary of how the week was is seen in the infographic provided below. The decline in cases comes as good news. However, the erratic death reports are disturbing as they are not real-time reports and like cases, are underestimates the actual situation in the Philippines.

The testing capacity is also quite erratic as testing is not consistent over the whole week. Number of tests conducted in the PH range between 45K to 55K. The positivity rate is now lower than 15% and continues to decline week on week.

Several countries within the Asian region are currently experiencing increasing cases as well, while others who are were doing worse are beginning to see better days ahead. With the various variants of concern and interest raging globally, this will be one long drawn battle and it is definitely taking a toll. The only exit strategy for now is greater catch basin for immunization and of course, vaccine availability.

Another 6K plus cases for Saturday 05.15.2021

The Philippine Health Agency reports 6,739 new cases, which is a tad lower than the 6,784 cases yesterday. This brings to 5% our active cases (56,709) with close to 9,000 recoveries today. The positivity rate for May 13 stood at 12.9% with over 52,000 tests that were run.

With 93 new deaths, the death toll for COVID19 in the country now exceeds 19,000 with a case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.76 percent. Utilization of ICU beds is at 63% today.

The OCTA Research releases its monitoring report for COVID-19 showing the decline in new cases per day for Mega Manila as compared to the surge that began in March. The average new cases per day has declined by 30% to 1,644 over the past week. Rt is 0.57 with a positivity rate at 12%. Note that based on risk classification (average daily attack rate) of the DoH where >10 per 100,000 is considered high risk, there is a shift to moderate risk (which is good news) in four cities – Navotas, Malabon, Manila and Caloocan. The others remain at high risk.

In addition, the latest OCTA report also shows that the positivity rate is being driving by provinces outside of the NCR. It is the province of Palawan that is the shocker of the day with 67% positivity rate. This means that 2 out of every 3 people being tested in Palawan is positive.

Another 6k day on a Friday 05.14.2021

As the weekend draws near the Health Agency reports a 6,784 new cases today and with fewer recoveries, the positive cases are close to 60,000 (5.2%). Today’s cases are based on positivity rate of 13.1% for May 14. Just a fair reminder that cases above the 6,000 number will make any country land in the top 20 countries with the most cases in the WORLD.

With 137 new deaths, the case fatality ratio of those with outcomes is up at 1.77%. The total number of deaths now stands close to 19,000 as the total number of COVID-19 cases is at 1.13 million.

The National Capital Region contributed to 1/4 of the total cases for the day with 1,697 new cases. CALABARZON was in second with 1,325 and Central Luzon in third with 976 new cases. Together, these three regions continue to commit around 60 percent of the total daily cases for the Philippines.

While there is daily inconsistency among cities in Mega Manila brings in the most cases, Quezon City is solid in its daily numbers as it continued to lead both regionally and nationally in number of new cases. Eleven of 17 LGUs in the NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Four provinces are back in the top of the heap among provinces in one region alone – Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal.

Resbak Thursday with 6K plus cases on 05.13.2021

Thursdays to Monday data give us, more or less, a more accurate picture of what the actual daily averages of the new cases are in the Philippines. The Health Agency announced 6,385 new cases (with a 7-day moving average of 6,500/day). This is based on 13.6 positivity rate last May 11.

With new deaths at 107 for today and a little more than 4,200 recoveries reported, the current case fatality ratio based on outcomes is steady at 1.76 percent. Intensive care unit utilization is lower at 64 percent with many of the hospitals seeing a tad fewer cases. Note, however, that severe and critical patients will take time to recover and will continue to fill ICU beds in the meantime.

With other sectors calling to move into a less strict quarantine because the cases in Mega Manila are now less than 2,000 per day for the past week, it is important to emphasize that those living in the areas with highest cases (epicenters) should be encouraged to take advantage of the COVID-19 vaccines that are now available. With a slight lowering of cases, this is the opportune time for the government to rapidly roll out the immunization campaign – even if it has to go to the extent of working 7 days a week and 24 hours a day – in order to sustain the gains made during the last 2 months of stricter lockdown.

NCR contributed to more than 1/4 of the total cases in the country with 1,608 new cases and the only region reporting quadruple digits. However, ALL OTHER REGIONS reported triple digits except for MIMAROPA, a first since the beginning of the pandemic and a pattern which was not even present during the first surge.

In NCR, Quezon City continued to lead among cities with most cases both on a regional and national level. However, for today, it only accounted for 19 percent of the total cases in Mega Manila. Caloocan City came in second for the day. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Pampanga was the top contributor to most cases for the day, followed by Isabela and Bulacan.

So here’s the run down on the immunization status of all ASEAN member states. The most important thing to remember is how many million shots have been given, but as to how many doses have been administered PER CAPITA (each country have different populations so it should be computed per 100,000 population) and the percentage of population FULLY vaccinated is vital.