With 2 laboratories not submitting reports for June 18, the Health Agency announces 5,803 new cases today. The positivity rate is still high at 13.2% because testing is insufficient at less than 50,000 test two days ago. The active cases dip a little less than the 60,000 average.

With 84 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.81%.

CALABARZON, NCR, and Western Visayas continued to lead the regions with most cases for the day. The Visayas and Mindanao Regions continue to account for majority of the cases in the country.

In NCR, Quezon City has difficulty in controlling its cases, as the city contributes to almost 1/3 of the total cases for Mega Manila alone. Five of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Negros Occidental, Davao del Sur and Leyte reported more than 300 cases apiece.

Davao City continued to lead as the city with most cases. Other cities rounding up the top five LGUs for the day are – Quezon City, Bacolod City, Dumaguete City and General Santos City.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Report updated for June 20, shows how the various LGUs in the country are performing week-on-week and contributing to the cases of COVID-19 in the country. NCR, the erstwhile epicenter of the country is currently seeing an average of 750 new cases/day. A drop of 11%. It’s ADAR (average daily attack rate) is lower at 5.43/100,000 population as a region.

LGUs seeing significant rises include Davao City (up at 42%), Cebu City (up at 45%), Polomok (up at 32%), and Valencia (Bukidnon, up at 80%). Notice that while Cebu City is seeing higher cases, their health care utilization (beds and ICU) remain significantly low. This is because the cases are from extensive contact tracing done and patients who are positive being isolated early. This, however, is not true for other LGUs where the rise in cases are from symptomatically ill patients.

Health bed utilization is highest in Iloilo City and Polomok (South Cotabato). ICU rates are up in Davao City, Iloilo City, General Santos, Tagum, Polomok (South Cotabato), San Pablo (Laguna), Tuguegarao, Cotabato City, Bacoor (Cavite) and Naga City. As the virus continues to spread throughout the archipelago, it is important for the government to concentrate all efforts on testing – both symptomatic and asymptomatic close contact cases. Vital in the TTIQ-V (Test, Trace, Isolate, Quarantine, Vaccination) algorithm, is the ability to test early (and release results early) so that tracing, isolating and quarantine can be done within a 48-72 hour span. Anything less that this will result in a continued increase in cases. Of course, there are only two ways to bring down the positivity rates – do more testing (100,000/day) or do not test at all. Doing the latter would result in chaos and a breakdown of the healthcare standards of the nation. At this point, as many provinces have very few testing facilities, which result in a very late release of reports, the Health Agency must accept the option of doing rapid antigen tests in patients who are symptomatic as basis for counting and including these patients in the daily data count. When patients are rapid antigen positive, PCR tests should be immediately done, and while waiting for confirmatory results, all contacts of patients who were antigen positive should be quarantined and closely monitored pending the release of the PCR results. Isolation of patients who are antigen positive should also be imposed, similar to patients who are RT-PCR positive. We lose nothing at this point by using these tests because of the outbreak.

The week in review showed how the country continued to plateau in numbers. As of June 19, the Philippines added 44,884 new cases and 889 new deaths for the week of June 13-19. This, as the new cases bounced around the 7,000 average per day for the week and deaths stayed more than 100/day (and considered an underreport).

Testing became challenging as many of the provinces/regions that are seeing rise in cases have limited testing facilities. The Health Agency only counts PCR tested individuals in the daily data. In spite of the 265 accredited testing facilities in the country [https://doh.gov.ph/licensed-covid-19-testing-laboratories], the testing facilities are not enough in areas outside of the NCR and highly urbanized centers (Cebu and Davao, CALABARZON and Central Luzon).

NCR owned 112 of 265 (42.3%) accredited centers in the country but is now seeing only less than 800 new cases per day. Together with the 22 centers in CALABARZON, half the testing centers in the nation are found in these two regions alone.

Compare that with say, Polomok in South Cotabato, Region XII with only 7 testing center – 4 of which are private and 3 public. Two of the testing centers are in Cotabato City, one in Koronadal, two in General Santos City, and two in Sultan Kudarat (both found in Tacurong City). The apparent disequilibrium in testing capacity in the country should be addressed by the government (particularly the IATF and testing czar) as COVID-19 is not a propriety of the urbanized areas alone.

For now, this is how we stand in some select countries in Asia. Many who saw surges have been able to bring down the cases for now. Sadly, our country is still debating the role of face shields in the pandemic.

The Health Agency continued to report higher cases for today with 6,959 new cases (6 laboratories failing to submit reports so that’s clearly more than 7K) for more than 50,000 tests done on June 17 with a nationwide positivity rate of 11.5%. The active cases continue to hover around 60,000 per day.

There were 153 new deaths reported today places the case fatality ratio steady at 1.82%.

While CALABARZON remains to lead among regions with NCR in second, Western Visayas is turning up a storm as it reports close to 800 new cases.

Among the LGUs in NCR, Quezon City marks more than 200 cases again while the other cities continue to report double digits only, with Navotas reporting only 5 cases. In spite of this, 7 of 17 LGUs in NCR still managed to land in the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, it is Laguna that continued to pour in the cases and lead the provinces with most cases for the day, followed by Negros Occidental and Davao Region.

Among all LGUs in the country, Davao City continued to lead in number of cases, followed by Quezon City, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, and Bacolod City to close the top five.

Close to 7,000 new cases, with 5 laboratories not reporting today, with almost 44K tests on June 16 still had a positivity rate of 12.6%. The active cases continue to average around 60,000 cases daily. And the provinces continue to rake in the new cases.

There are 110 new deaths reported today putting the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.82% ICU bed utilization is also up in the regions outside of the NCR. Note that this is the average, and includes other regions that are seeing lower cases.

CALABARZON takes back the lead from NCR with close to 1,000 cases. Except for BARMM, all other regions reported triple digit numbers. It was the Visayas that saw a horrible day with Western, Central and Eastern Visayas capping the top five regions from 3rd to 5th ranks.

Back in the NCR, it is not surprising that Quezon City continued to lead with triple digit cases. The good news is that four cities/municipality had only single digits – Malabon, San Juan, Navotas and Pateros. Six of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top twenty cities with highest cases.

On a provincial level, Iloilo grabbed the lead followed by Laguna and Davao del Sur.

Overall LGUs showed Davao City continuing to lead among the top twenty cities in the country. Aside from Quezon City (which will most likely never be out of the top five cities with most cases), Cagayan de Oro, Zamboanga City and Iloilo City cap the top five.

The OCTA Research Monitoring for June 18, 2021 shows that among LGUs outside of NCR, Davao City is seeing an increase in new COVID-19 cases. Yesterday, June 17, the Health Agency data drop showed Davao City reporting 482 new cases, its highest ever since the pandemic began last year. This is an increase of 26% from the daily average of 184 new cases daily last June 4-10. The ICU rate is over 90%.

This phenomenon is not an isolated one among LGUs outside of NCR. Bacolod City, Iloilo City, Cagayan de Oro and Dumaguete are also among the top five cities with highest cases. Baguio City saw a 49% increase in cases. Polomok in South Cotabato had the highest increase in cases at 63% for the week of June 11-17. Dumaguete had the highest ADAR (average daily attack rate at 52.21 per 100,000 population) while Iloilo City had the highest Hospital Bed Utilization Rate (HBUR).

ICUR was highest for Koronadal and Bacoor (Cavite) at 100%. Those near or above 90% ICUR included Davao City, Iloilo City, Tagum, Batangas City, and Tuguegarao.

For the past weeks, the Philippines has averaged 6500 new daily cases. This 7-day moving average includes the low Tuesdays and Wednesdays and the high Fridays to Sundays. That’s because the report is based on tests done 2 days behind.

Today, the Health Agency announces 6,637 new cases as the active cases still hover around the 60K average. Todays cases are based on close to 45,000 tests done on 06.15.2021 with an 11.9% positivity rate. The positivity rate is being dragged up with the higher cases in the various regions outside of NCR, where testing sites are fewer and where it takes more than 7 days to release results because of the surge in cases. The health agency should allow the use of rapid antigen tests, particularly in symptomatic patients in these areas current experiencing insurmountable outbreaks so that they are able to complement the lack of testing in order to properly trace, isolate and quarantine early and appropriately.

With 155 new deaths today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is now up at 1.82%.

After more than week trailing behind CALABARZON, NCR is back on top as the region with most cases with close to 1,000 or 16% (that sudden jump) new cases for the day. Western Visayas took the second rank, with Central Luzon and Davao Region overtaking CALABARZON, which landed in fifth. These five regions raked in more than 700 new cases each and accounted for 63% or almost 2/3 of the cases in the country today.

In NCR, Quezon City and Caloocan City reported triple digits for the day with 8 of 17 LGUs in NCR back in the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, it was Davao del Sur that led the pack, by a mile with 504 new cases and Davao City accounting for 482 of these cases – 96% in the province or 67% in the region. Negros Occidental and Iloilo province jumped into the top ten at second and third rank today.

The Health Agency announced more than 5,000 new cases today (as it is a Wednesday) for tests done on June 14, 2021 in slightly more than 36,000 individuals resulting in 13.7% positivity rate. Many of the reported cases from the provinces, which have less PCR facilities are submitting delayed reports. Some of the tests done in May were reported only in June. This means that we will expect more cases in the subsequent weeks. It is also disturbing why the government refuses to utilize antigen swab testing in areas where the outbreak and the positivity rate is exceedingly high. A delay in releasing results for PCR tests make tracing and isolation/quarantine difficult and allows the disease to continue to spread.

With 158 new deaths today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.81 percent as the total deaths now exceed the 23,000 mark. And rising.

CALABARZON led with most cases on a regional level. Except for BARMM, all regions continued to report triple digit cases.

Among LGUs in NCR, Quezon City continued to lead with 110 cases, one of their lowest numbers to date. Two LGUs reported single digits – Malabon and Navotas. Pateros had zero cases. Five of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, it was Laguna that led for the day. Majority of the provinces in the top ten were from the Mindanao region. But this may not be a true reflection of the cases in the country, as many provinces do not have adequate testing facilities and results may take days or weeks to get accounted for.

The top 5 cities with most cases were dominated by cities outside NCR. Only Quezon City was included and landed in third rank. Number one continued to be Davao City and Baguio City came in second.

The OCTA Research Monitoring update for June 16, 2021, shows that new cases in the NCR continue to decline with an average of 829 daily cases over the week June 9-15 (13% drop from the previous week). The ADAR was lowest in Navotas and highest in Pateros. Health care utilization rate is also lowest in Navotas and highest in Pateros, while the intensive care unit use was at >70% in the cities of San Juan, Las Piñas, and Parañaque. The over-all positivity rate is at 8%, much lower than the national positivity rate of >13%.

The Tuesday will always bring in 20-30% lower cases than the daily average.

The Health Agency today announces 5,389 new cases for a little more than 30,000 tests only, done last June 13. The national positivity rate is higher at 13.9% as most of the cases we are seeing now are outside of NCR, where testing facilities and healthcare resources are direly lacking. As the fire rages in the periphery, it is inevitable that provinces seeing higher cases go into stricter lockdown measures, improve border controls, and use the concept of travel and business bubble in the areas to contain the spread of the pandemic.

With 118 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.81 percent.

While there were relatively lower cases today than the past days of the week, all regions continued to report triple digits. CALABARZON remained on top with the NCR down to third rank. Most of the regions with higher cases are still from the VisMin area.

LGUs in NCR continued to report less cases, including Quezon City. But that is because there were 16 testing centers that failed to submit reports. Most of the cases reported outside of NCR plus are late reports. We should expect a rise in cases in the coming days, particularly from the regional areas outside of NCR plus. Only three of 17 LGUs in the NCR made it to the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Cavite is back in the leader board. While Davao Region reported only 231 cases, and Davao del Sur was not even among the top ten provinces, Davao City (together with Bacolod City) shared the limelight as the city with most cases at 126, out sprinting Quezon City.

Today’s Health Agency reported 6,426 new cases with active cases still hovering around 60K. Note that todays cases are based on June 12 with more than 40K cases and a difficult positivity rate at 13.7%.

There were 57 new deaths announced today, which puts the case fatality ratio at 1.81%.

The good news is that no region reported quadruple digits today. Not even CALABARZON.

The bad news? All the regions in the Philippines reported triple digits.

CALABARZON continued to lead the pack, but the NCR is back in second slot and Western Visayas in third. Note that the erratic figures coming in from the regions outside of NCR plus, Davao Region and Central Visayas, are due to the fact that there are fewer testing facilities in other areas. When results are released, there are occasional bursts of cases in these areas. Using a 7-day average report (as provided by OCTA) is a better indicator of the testing capacity and cases in these areas.

In the NCR, Quezon City and Manila managed to report triple digits for the day. Six of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila remained among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, it was Davao del Sur that topped the provinces, followed by Laguna and Iloilo Province.

Davao City contributed to the majority of cases in the province of Davao del Sur, and being responsible for why Davao City had the most number of new cases of COVID-19 on a city level, today. Two other cities outside of NCR were among the top five for the day – Iloilo City and Baguio City.

As the cases in the provinces see an upward trajectory, one can see how the frail healthcare systems outside of more urbanized areas can easily be overwhelmed even with simply triple digit cases. No province has experienced the same quantity of cases as Mega Manila. With limited resources, even the most urbanized city outside of NCR will definitely feel the pressure on its healthcare system, and can result in higher death rates because of the deluge of cases.

Western Visayas, for example, has been in MECQ for quite some time and even this level of lockdown has continued to inundate the region with more cases in the past week.

In the latest OCTA Monitoring Report, Dumaguete is the area of most serious concern as its one-week growth rate continues to escalate, its average daily attack rate is almost 70 per 100,000 population and the intensive care unit utilization is at critical levels.

The list below provides a look into LGUs outside the NCR plus, that has the most number of new cases from June 7-13, 2021. While Davao City remained in the lead, it has managed to bring down the number of new cases and its ADAR as well. However, ICU rate is unsettling at 92%.

The IATF may want to rethink on the quarantine status of some of these LGUs and move them to one where mobility is more restricted in order to stem the continued transmission of spread of the virus in select regions.

With 7,302 new cases today, from more than 50,000 tests done on June 11, with a positivity rate of 12.4%, the active cases remain close to 60,000. The over 8,000 cases yesterday was more than enough to take the Philippines back among the top ten countries with most cases in the world.

Cases in regions outside of the NCR are accounting for the higher number of daily cases and the healthcare and intensive care units in these areas significantly burdened.

With 137 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.81%.

The National Capital Region moves a notch up to third, but remains behind CALABARZON and Western Visayas, and accounts for 11% of the daily total. Regions in Visayas and Mindanao continue to haul in cases for the day.

There were 7 of 17 LGUs in NCR that were in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases, with Quezon City and Manila leading the pack with triple digits.

On a provincial level, Negros Oriental was in first spot for the first time. This was followed by provinces in Region VI – Negros Occidental and Iloilo.

Quezon City was displaced to fifth over-all among cities with most cases in the country for the first time. The four cities that overtook it were from outside NCR – Bacolod, Davao City, Iloilo City and Dumaguete City. Surprisingly, Cebu City and Muntinlupa City are back in the top twenty cities with most cases today.

The week in review provides us an quick look at how the Philippines is faring compared to some of our Asian neighbors that also went through new surges and limited mobility measures. Unlike the Philippines, however, the mobility measures in other countries did not drastically affect their economies as there was no one size fits all rule. TTIQ (testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine) measures are standardized by the national government, and consistently implemented across all areas in their nation.

First is the hardy positivity rate. Based on the PH-DOH website, as of June 08, 2021, there are 260 accredited testing centers using rRT-PCR or cartridge-based PCR in the country https://doh.gov.ph/licensed-covid-19-testing-laboratories. However, 109 (42%) of these are all located in the National Capital Region. While NCR has the largest population per density (23,500 people per sq km), the imbalance in distribution of operational testing sites are more for economic rather than health policy reasons. For example, region III (Central Luzon) has 22, region IVA (CALABARZON) 21, region VII (Central Visayas) 20, and region XI (Davao Region) with 11 testing facilities.

The remaining regions have a sprinkling of testing facilities. Region IVB (MIMAROPA) has only 5 accredited testing sites – with 2 only for Palawan. The recent outbreak and rise in cases and positivity rate in Palawan is attributed to lack of testing. Region VIII (Eastern Visayas) that is seeing a dramatic increase in cases is also beset by lack of testing facilities with only 3 accredited sites – 2 located in Tacloban City and 1 in Ormoc City. The maldistribution of testing facilities in the regions outside of NCR leads to under testing and eventually, a high positivity rate.

Why does testing matter?

When people are not tested, we do not know who has COVID-19 infection. When people are not tested, it would be difficult to do contact tracing, and the infection just continues to spread. When people are not tested, isolation and quarantine cannot be done, and the disease sadly proliferates.

Second is the sudden shift in cases to the regions outside of NCR. As cases began to decline in mid-May, this decline did not last. As in the first surge, when the NCR had gone into stricter quarantine measures, many people in classes D and E needed to survive. The exodus back to their home provinces most likely accounted for the rise in cases in the regions. The second surge became more difficult because the hospitals not only filled up, overflowed, and resulted in a near catastrophic collapse of the health care in Mega Manila. As the second surge was deadlier, with cases tripling the cases of the first surge, another exodus, was inevitable.

With variants of concerns spreading in various regions, the porosity of our borders together with a drive to stimulate tourism became a triggering factor for the sudden upward shift of cases before it could even drop to levels less than 2,000 cases. Mobility was inevitable as the economy took a beating. Economy needed to be revved up because 2022 is election year.

How do you rev up an economy based on the science of lockdown measures?

While lockdowns help bring down cases significantly, it should be used cautiously and judiciously. It is a measure of last resort. If a government has a good TTIQ pillar in place, it will not need to resort to lockdown measures to address every surge. It is why data analysts do what they do. Following the data provides eyes for the government to see what is going on on the ground. When, why and how measures should be instituted and what economic activities should be allowed. Only a science driven policy should be used for deciding the level of lockdown measures.

Finally, there is the vaccination roll out.

In the figure below is a summary of the status of COVID-19 vaccinations in select Asian nations. The Philippines isn’t doing too bad, but it isn’t doing too good as well. That is because most of the vaccines we current receive are donations. The donations came in trickles, and the full purchases of the national government are coming in aliquots as well. Because of this, the vaccination drive could not be put into full gear and had to be appropriated to the more vulnerable population first, and the hardest hit region – the NCR – ahead.

To date, less than 1.5% of the total population in the Philippines has been fully immunized.

The target of herd protection, however, is a challenging one because of the diversity of vaccines the country received, is receiving, or has bought. As various COVID-19 vaccines vary in efficacy, so will the number of people that will need to get immunized to achieve herd protection. A vaccine with 50-60% over-all efficacy will most likely need 100% of the population immunized as against a vaccine with 95% efficacy, which may render herd protection when 70% of the population are vaccinated.

We need to remember that getting a single shot of the vaccine (for 2 dose vaccines) will not provide adequate protection. Yet. It will take two to four weeks after the second dose before any immunologic response can even be guaranteed. With the tepid vaccine rollout and the rollout in limited locations because of inadequate supplies for now, caution and appropriate science based strategies should be taken when reopening the economy.

Finally, here is where we stand together with our next door Asian neighbors.

With today’s numbers, will the Philippines land again among the top ten nations with most cases in the world in tomorrow’s daily tally?

The last time the PH breached the 8,000 mark was two weeks ago. Today the Health Agency reports 8,027 new cases, for over 52,000 tests done last June 10. In spite of having slightly more tests, the positivity rate remained over 13%. Without a doubt, we are not testing enough.

Troubling are the consistently higher new deaths reported, with 145 for today. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.82%. This is underestimated considering that the outcomes of more than 60,000 current active cases have not been resolved. Even if the Health Agency reports that almost 95.8% are mild or asymptomatic, this data is obtained AT THE TIME OF THE TEST. It does not reflect the ultimate outcome of patients and how many of them eventually progressed to moderate, severe, or critical. Deaths will always be reported much later, usually 4-8 weeks after the patients have died. As we tread higher numbers, expect more deaths to be announced in later dates.

The shocker of the day is the ranking for NCR, that has slipped significantly to fourth rank and accounted for only 10% of the new cases on Independence Day! On top is CALABARZON, followed by Western Visayas and Central Luzon. The continuing rise in cases in the regions is worrisome considering that this is the first time a region outside of NCR has registered quadruple cases.

While NCR has registered lower cases now, it is still Quezon City that continued to lead with close to 200 cases. Four cities/municipalities reported single digit numbers. Six of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities and municipalities with most cases.

With the high numbers in Western Visayas, the provinces of Negros Occidental, Iloilo and Negros Oriental ranked first to third today. Batangas and Laguna accounted for the bulk of cases in CALABARZON.

The city of Bacolod topped the cities with most cases in the Philippines, followed by Davao City. Quezon City for the first time, came in third. On a day with more than 8000 cases, the top five cities with most cases aside from Bacolod and Davao were Iloilo City and Dumaguete City. (Eight of 10 cities in the top ten were outside of NCR).

The OCTA Research Monitoring report for June 12, 2021 is divided into provinces and LGUs with most case cases.

In general, there was a minuscule decline in cases from June 5-11, the reproduction number for the country is >1.0. This is not good because it implies that we are plateauing at a very high daily average. This would mean that at an average of 6500 daily new cases, total new cases in a month would approximate to around 200,000. This is on the presumption that the reproduction rate stays at 1.0. There will be more than 1.4M cases on or before June 30 and while NCR now owns <15% of the total daily cases, 85% of the daily cases are scattered in regions that have lesser capacity for extensive health care and resources at managing COVID-19 cases – from quarantine to confinement to intensive care utilization.

Notice that during the beginning of the second surge, NCR plus accounted for 94% of the new cases from March 29 – April 4. Today, NCR plus (NCR, Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan and Rizal) account for around 27% of the new COVID-19 cases. The total population of the National Capital Region alone is around 14% of the population of the country. While the new cases now are more ‘controlled’ in Mega Manila, the return of people from the regions back into the NCR together with the increasing laxity in quarantine restrictions in NCR may pose a challenge to the gains made in Mega Manila, in spite of the vaccine roll out. Vaccines do not work immediately. There should be pacing when reopening the economy in the NCR as getting vaccinated and reopening economies simultaneously may prove to be a false sense of security and end up with an eventual rise in cases in NCR.

While it is NCR that led in the total average daily cases, several provinces in Visayas and Mindanao were seeing increasing rates and burdensome Healthcare Utilization Rates. Iloilo, Cagayan, Misamis Oriental, Negros Oriental and Agusan del Norte had HCURs >70%.

For the second week in a row, Davao City had more daily average cases than Quezon City. The growth in new cases in Davao City, however, has quickly slowed down. On a LGU level, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, General Santos, Taguig, Tuguegarao, Bacoor (Cavite), and Cotabato City are seeing Intensive Care Utilization Rates (ICURs) of more than 90%. Zamboanga City, Las Piñas, Koronadal, and Calamba (Laguna) are at more than 70%.

As the Health Agency announces 6,686 new cases today, the Philippines officially crosses the 1.3M mark for COVID-19 cases. The cases today are from reports last June 9, with close to 50,000 tests done. However, this was not enough to bring the positivity down as it increased to 13.3% for the day. As more active cases are reported, the number of active cases exceed 60,000 (4.7%).

With 196 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is up at 1.82%.

NCR slipped to second spot today with less than 13% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON is back in first place. The Visayas regions are troublesome as they continue to report rising cases with Western Visayas leading, even overtaking Central Luzon. Eastern and Central Visayas follow Region III.

Among the 17 LGUs in NCR, only Quezon City continues to report triple digits. Seven of the 17 cities in Mega Manila are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases in the country.

On a provincial level, it is Laguna that takes the lead today, followed by Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental.

But it is Bacolod City that has the highest number of cases among cities in the country, overtaking erstwhile perennial leader Quezon City. Four of five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top five now. Aside from Bacolod City, the rest are – Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, and Iloilo, ranking third to fifth.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Update for June 11, 2021 separates the data from the 17 LGUs in the National Capital Region from LGUs outside of Mega Manila with most cases.

Mega Manila’s reproduction remains below 1.0 at 0.72 with an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 6.7 per 100,000 and a decline of 17% in cases for the week of June 4-10, 2021. Based on ADAR, most the LGUs in the NCR are now at moderate risk, with the lowest risk level belonging to Navotas and Marikina. Only Makati City remains at highest risk with an ADAR of 10.77 per 100,000 population.

Outside of NCR, many of the LGUs that were seeing significant increase in cases have slowed down, and most of them posing declines rather than growth. Nevertheless, the ADAR in many cities remain at high risk (>10/100,000). Dumaguete continued to see a significant increase in cases by 290% and an ADAR of 51.58. Tacloban City and Silang (Cavite) are also seeing significant increases in their cases.

The major areas of concern in terms of ICU occupancy rate are: Iloilo City, General Santos, Tugeugarao, Bacoor (Cavite), Koronadal and Silang (Cavite).