Record breaking Freaky Friday and the data of 08.20.2021

It’s a record breaking day!

Officially, the Philippines passes the 1.8M mark with 17,231 new cases announced today by the Health Agency – the highest one day tally of the country ever. This brings to more than 123,000 the active cases.

On August 18, we also recorded one of the highest number of tests done in a single day – close to 65,000. The positivity rate? 26.1%. Which means to bring it to an acceptable level for testing, the country should be doing 120,000-150,000 tests a day.

Then there are the deaths – 317 of which are reported today. This brings past 31,000 the total deaths. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is now at 1.852%. As the total number of active cases rise, it is not appropriate to use the total cases as the denominator when calculating for the case fatality ratio because we do not know the outcome of the active cases yet.

Hospital utilization is at critical levels both nationally and in Mega Manila.

This, as the major epicenter moves into MECQ beginning tomorrow.

While NCR still led the tally among regions, it accounted for a decent 27% of the cases in the country today. For a good news, the of course is the bad news. Where was the 73% coming from? CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Central Visayas report quadruple digits and these three regions outside of NCR were responsible for close to 42% of the total. Ten regions report more than 500 cases as the increasing cases are seen in every archipelago.

NOTE THAT ALL THE RECORDED CASES ARE CONFIRMED BY RT-PCR. Which means that those that test positive by rapid antigen alone but are symptomatic with COVID-19 are not included in the reported cases. We encourage those who need to get tested to get tested so that contact tracing can be done. In addition, the Health Agency and IATF use rapid antigen kits in order to screen and document cases more quickly during this surge.

On a provincial level, three provinces report quadruple digits – Cavite, Laguna and Cebu.

In the meantime, among LGUs, 12 or 17 LGUs in the NCR make it to the top twenty cities with most cases. The top five cities in the country for the day are all from NCR – Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan City, Pasig and Makati.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

As the National Capital Region, CALABARZON and Central Luzon regions sees rising cases in the midst of the delta variant storm, the province of Cebu seems to see a slowing down in the reproduction numbers.

In yesterday’s OCTA Monitoring report, Cebu was the feature story. The surge seems to be winding down based on a slowing of cases are reflected in the reproduction number. Current trends show that R may dip to 1 by September and a downtrend would be a welcome respite for the region. While the incidence rate is still critical in Cebu City and Lapu Lapu City, hospital utilization is relatively better this week than the past weeks.

CALABARZON is a different story altogether. Annexed to the southern most portion of the National Capital Region are the provinces of Laguna and Cavite. While there is a slight slow down in cases in these provinces, Cavite province remains at critical risk in terms of incidence. Hospital capacity and ICU utilization, both at critical levels is also highest in many LGUs in this province.

Compared to Laguna, Cavite Province’s incidence rate is at critical level (>25/100,000 population) and over-all ICU utilization at 93%.

Because the borders of these provinces are a hairline from the epicenter Mega Manila, it is prudent that the quarantine requirements in the contiguous areas surrounding Mega Manila should implement the same quarantine classification in order to contain the surge and prevent spill overs. In addition, vaccines should also be poured into these provinces in equal tranches as the National Capital Region.

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