Plateauing or peaking and the data of 09.17.2021

With reproduction number ranging from 1.1-1.2 (+/- 0.5), we continue to average more than 20,000 new daily cases. The common question asked is are we plateauing or have we peaked?

Based on the surge data and the reproduction rate, we seem to plateau at 20,000. If we maintain the reproduction number and keep it lower, then we most likely would have occasional bursts of higher numbers, but should be peaking this weekend.

The problem in this scenario is the high positive rate that continues to exceed 25% in spite of more than 75,000 tests done last September 15, 2021.

During the last surge in April, the highest positivity we recorded was 22.8% on April 7. The positivity rate dropped significantly to 9.8% on May 26. But the next smaller surge in June showed a peak positivity rate of 13%. The July surge was accompanied with positivity rates exceeding 25%. And plateauing at more than 25% positivity rate at a time when the government decides to loosen mobility restrictions can go either ways. We will sit this one out. In the meantime, please, if you don’t need to go out unnecessarily, don’t.

The Health Agency reports 20,336 new cases today, and with less than half that number as recoveries, the active cases are now close to 190,000.

With 310 new deaths, the total deaths now exceed 36,000.

Even NCR had a decent share of the total cases for the day with 25% of daily total. Other regions with quadruple digits were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas.

On a provincial level the top 4 provinces were all from CALABARZON – Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal.

Twelve of 17 LGUs from NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. Four LGUs were from CALABARZON, while Davao City remains in the top five.

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