1,190 new cases and 309 deaths and the data for 11.17.2021

The Health Agency reports 1,190 new cases today with a little more than 33,000 tests done last November 15, with 3.5% positivity rate. Active cases are at less than 24,000, with more than 36% being tagged as anywhere from moderate to critical. And this is an area that will need to get dissected well because there seems to be a large backlog in identifying whether this group of patients tagged as moderate, severe, or critical have had outcomes or not. And this lag in resolution of outcomes in this group may explain the discrepancy in ICU utilization which is not congruent with the 17% severe and critical cases.

There are 309 new deaths announced today, resulting in over 46,000 deaths already or an overall case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.65%.

Based on the data drop of the DoH, it was interesting to dissect why the number of moderate to critical cases were so high at close to 37%. Was this because there are still a lot of moderate to critically ill cases? But the ICU and ward beds and ventilators in use were unusually low. In short, the data did not match.

Among the current 23,846 active cases, there were 7,794 cases that remained open in outcomes (no mention if they have recovered or died). Of the 7,794 cases that remained unresolved, 6,146 were moderate to critical.

Breakdown based on month of diagnosis is as follows:

To elucidate the above the table, there were 15 patients categorized as critical last January 2021 with NO outcomes yet. And the DoH is still counting these outstanding cases. Most of the cases from August to September have had no resolution as of now – that’s 2-3 months after their being diagnosed. Which most likely should not be the case especially for moderate patients who may have resolved already and the more severe and critical ones, that may have passed on.

The NCR accounted for a higher share for todays cases with 315 or 26.5% new cases. Notice the rapid decline in other regions lately, with NCR plateauing at the 300-500 daily mark, an increase of 8% from the previous weeks.

It is good news that we are seeing provinces report less cases as well with Cavite leading but with less than 50 cases. None of the provinces in the top 10 list had more than 50 cases.

Among cities and municipalities, Quezon City continues to take the lead with 90 of the 315 cases in NCR – that’s almost 30% of the total share of Mega Manila. The City of Manila came in second with 62 cases while the rest of NCR reported less than 20 cases per LGU. Seven of the 17 LGUs reported single digits.

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