The Health Agency announces 356 new cases based on more than 35,000 tests done last December 9 with a positivity rate that is an all time low at 1.1%. This brings the active cases down to a little over 11,000 (really can’t wait to see it drop to four digits next week). However, 54% of the active cases are moderate to critical in category. The 7-day average drops now to 318 cases/day as of December 10, 2021.

There are 135 deaths added today. This brings to more than 50,000 the recorded deaths due to COVID-19 (which most likely is even higher than this).

The 7-day average is down to 380 new cases/day as of December 9, 2021. The Health Agency also reports that around half of the hospitals in the country have not reported a case of COVID-19 for the past week and the One Command Hospital call center has seen a significant decline in calls. At this trend, should we be complacent with Christmas just around the corner?

While the country is enjoying lower cases now, it is not a time to drop our guard. As a matter of fact, this is a time to take stock of what is happening globally with Omicron, ongoing Delta surge and the season fluctuation of COVID-19 as a lesson to take stock and be prepared for any eventuality. As the Philippines has a surmountable amount of vaccines in stock, its citizens should take advantage of this situation and protect themselves and their families by getting vaccinated.

The cases of Omicron in South Africa among children were mostly from families whose adults in the household were unvaccinated. The outcomes for children and young adults will most likely be mild but the threat to the general population will remain a major concern unless we all get vaccinated soon. We all need to be part of the herd and cannot simply be kibitzers.

The Health Agency reports 379 new cases based on close to 36,000 tests done last December 8 and a positivity rate of 1.3%. Active cases drop below 12,000 with more than half of them moderate to critical in severity.

There are 25 deaths added today.

The NCR had 67 cases or accounted for less than 18% of the country’s total today. Three regions report single digit per region, while the rest of the regions in the country have less than 50 cases each.

Even on a provincial level, ALL provinces reported 20 cases and less, with Negros Oriental leading the pack.

More good news from the LGU level is that while Quezon City continue to lead the pack, it only had 14 new cases. As a matter of fact, only three LGUs had double digits – QC, Manila, and Davao City – all less than 15 cases. Only 7 of the 17 LGUs in NCR landed in the top twenty, where the fewest number of cases today was 3.

The Friday ends with the Health Agency announcing 562 new cases based on 33,295 tests done last December 7 with 1.6% positivity. Because December 8 was a public holiday, we should expect fewer cases tomorrow. The total number of active cases are now lower at a little over 12,000 with more than 53% being moderate to critical.

There are 176 added deaths today.

NCR accounted for 21.7% of the total for the day with 122 cases. Other regions with more than fifty cases are: CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Central Visayas. Only two regions had single digits – Bicol and BARMM.

Negros Oriental had the highest number of cases on a provincial level. All other provinces in the top ten had double digits cases.

Quezon City had 31 cases or more than 1/4 of the total cases in NCR. Three other LGUs in NCR report double digits – Manila, Pasig and Caloocan City. The remaining 13 LGUs have single digit cases. The fewest cases among LGUs in the country today is 5.

The Health Agency announces 370 new cases today based on close to 29,000 tests done with 1.6% positivity rate last December 6, 2021. The active cases drop to 12,510 with more than 53% of them falling into the category of moderate to critical.

There are 171 new deaths announced today.

The NCR saw 96 new cases today with Quezon City owning almost 30% of the total cases. Six regions report single digits, while the rest of the regions report less than 50 cases apiece.

Negros Occidental led among provinces with 23 new cases, and it was a breather to see three provinces in the top ten list reporting single digits.

Only Quezon City reported more than 20 cases, at 27. The rest of the LGUs had 12 or less cases. Thirteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 list, but notice that ALL the LGUs in NCR, except for QC had single digit cases. Four cases was the least number in the top 20 list today.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

The good news is the very low risk category for NCR, the largest and most dense region in the country (and one of the most dense in the world) with just 105 new cases/day (based on the 7 day average from December 1-7). The R is at 0.34 (fantastic) while the positivity rate in Mega Manila is at an all time low of 1.1%! Only the city of Muntinlupa has moderate risk in terms of ICU rate utilization. Note that this is based on a total of 18 bed capacity for Muntinlupa City, with 12 beds still currently occupied based on data from the Department of Health. The three hospitals with ICU occupancy based on the data of the Department of Health are: Ospital ng Muntinlupa, Asian Hospital and Medical Center Muntinlupa.

As Omicron is spotted in more countries in Europe and additional states in the United States, we tiptoe on thin ice with what information we have so far. Most of the cases of Omicron are mild. The trajectory for infectiousness is high. The multiple mutations place it at higher risk for reinfections. So far, antivirals will work against this.

The Health Agency reports 356 new cases today, and our 7 day average is now at 382 cases/day (hurray). The current levels are teetering at our May 2020 numbers. With more recoveries, the active cases dip to 13,000 with more than half being in the moderate to critical category.

Today’s numbers are based on 24,360 tests done last December 5, with a 1.4% positivity rate.

An additional 92 deaths are reported today.

NCR had 68 cases today or around 25% of the total cases in the country. This was followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. Six regions had single digit cases.

Among provinces, all provinces reported less than 20 cases today, with 2 provinces in the top ten reporting only single cases. They are the provinces of Cebu and Bataan with 9 cases apiece.

Among LGUs, Quezon City had 23 cases, accounting for 1/3 of the cases in the NCR. All the other LGUs in the top 20 list reported less than 15 cases. The fewest cases for an LGU in the top 20 was 3 for today. Three LGUs in NCR had zero cases. They are: Las Piñas, Navotas, and Pateros.

As more countries report Omicron in their shores, the world is at pause mode on how to approach the new variant of concern. To date, almost 40 countries have accounted for Omicron.

The Health Agency today reports 543 new cases for more than 32,000 tests done on December 4, 2021 with a positivity rate of 1.7%. With slightly more recoveries, the active cases hover at 13,500 with more than 50% of them being moderate to critically ill. Notice that this sizable amount have a lot of backlog for outcome which have not been reconciled.

There are 113 deaths added today.

NCR continues to lead among regions with 102 cases today. This was followed by CALABARZON with 76 cases and Cagayan Valley with 69. The rest of the regions had less than 50 cases with 4 regions reporting single digits.

Cavite topped the provincial list followed by provinces in the north.

Among LGUs, it was Zamboanga City that had the most cases in the country for the day with 28 cases as all LGUs in the NCR see less than 20 cases. Only 4 LGUs in the NCR reported double digits, while all reported single digit cases. The fewest cases in the top twenty LGUs for the day was 5.

The Health Agency reports 603 new cases based on 35,950 tests done last December 3 with 1.8% positivity rate. The active cases are now less than 14,000 but more than half of them are moderate to critically ill.

The Health Agency adds 156 deaths today, as the number of deaths approach the 50,000 mark.

NCR had 121 cases today or 20% of the total cases in the country. Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley reported more than 50 cases apiece.

On a provincial level, all provinces reported less than 30 cases, with Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental and Isabela having 27 cases each.

Quezon City was the only LGU that reported more than 20 cases, while all the rest of the LGUs in the top 20 report less than 20 cases. Only seven LGUs report 7 digits, while the rest report single digit cases. The fewest cases today for an LGU in the top 20 was 6.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The past two months has been a good one, as the numbers showed a sustained decline in new cases in the Philippines. And that’s the good news. This is our best sustained decline in the pandemic. And it is worthy to give credit where credit is due. This is a story of how vaccines are able to bring down a surge and with the limited vaccines the country received at the beginning of the two surges this year, the tactical approach to covering NCR, the densest city in the country (and one of the most dense in the world), and the nearby regions and other highly urbanized regions was truly remarkable.

The drop in cases was so significant that from a 7-day average of a little over 1,000/day last week, the PH now has a 7-day average less than 500 daily new cases. The deaths remain an unresolved problem as backlogs in accounting for the outcomes of those moderate to critically ill cases still hound the agency.

Nevertheless, here is a snapshot of the summary of cases (per capita), testing and reproduction number in the country. The current 7-day average is 4.48 cases/million population, with 3 tests per 10,000 population and a positivity rate that is at its lowest at 1.9% since the start of the pandemic. This puts our reproduction number down to 0.55 (+/- 0.05), our lowest since the start of the pandemic in 2020.

Even when compared head to head with select Asian nations (the data below is on a per capita or based on the population of each country), the Philippines has single digit case per million. Indonesia has 1 per million population, while Japan has 0.8 per million population. Deaths are a different story, however, but this time, the burden is shifted to Vietnam and Singapore with more than 1.5 deaths/million population. Only Japan has <0.01 death/million population due to COVID-19.

Reproduction number in the same select countries shows that the Philippines is continuing the declining trajectory (but I feel it will plateau around this point soon), as it has the lowest reproduction number among these select nations. Note that South Korea and Vietnam continue to have R>1.0 as the former sees its highest cases since the beginning of the pandemic with more than 5,000 cases/day. Singapore has significantly and rapidly slowed down the reproduction number as the cases drop to 700 plus within a month from seeing more than 2,000 new daily cases. But that should not be a difficult task for Singapore because the country of less than 6M people have more than 90% vaccinated (>85% fully) and are able to manage the cases because of the smaller population size.

The Philippines is seeing a 7-day average of 514 new daily cases and 138 daily deaths reported as of December 3, 2021. This brings the weekend to a lower daily average than the previous weeks in terms of cases, but the backlog in outcomes among those moderate to critically ill needs to be reconciled sooner and announced in one blast.

The Health Agency announces 517 new deaths today and with more than 1,100 new recoveries, this leaves the active cases down to a little more than 14,000. Half of the active cases are moderate to critically ill. Notice that the severe to critical account for more than 3,200 of the active cases. This does not correlate with the ICU utilization rate, both nationally and in NCR.

There are 243 deaths added today.

NCR accounted for almost 1/4 of the total cases today with 121 reported. All other regions report double digits.

CALABARZON ranked second among regions, with Cavite leading the top ten provinces together with Negros Oriental. All provinces reported 25 cases or less, on a day with very low positive patients.

Among LGUs, it is Quezon City that reports the most cases with 31 new cases. All other LGUs report 15 or less cases, with 5 cases as the fewest number for an LGU to be included in the top 20 list.

The Philippines continued to report cases averaging 700/day as all areas in the country are declared Alert Level 2. In spite of the second to the lowest alert level imposed nationwide, the government (and this writer) encourage everyone to get vaccinated and to make sure that in spite of vaccination, to follow minimum health standards of wearing a proper fitting mask, avoiding crowds and congested places, avoid unnecessary gatherings, and continue to wash hands and practice proper cough/sneeze etiquette.

Today, the Health Agency reports 544 new cases today based on close to 33,000 tests done last December 1 with a positivity rate of 1.8%. The active cases are down to less than 15,000. Almost half of these are moderate to critical.

There are 235 added deaths today.

NCR accounted for 20% of todays cases, while the Zamboanga Peninsula has 78 new cases (a mix of backlog reports and recent ones). All the rest of the regions saw less than 50 cases, with two regions reporting single digit.

On a provincial level, no province saw more than 50 cases with Zamboanga Sibugay claiming 43 cases.

Six LGUs report double digits as Quezon City was the only city that had more than 20 cases at 21. All cities and municipalities had less than 20 cases and majority reported single digit with the least number of cases today at 5.

As more countries are now reporting Omicron (24 as of this writing), we need to remain vigilant on the situation as there is still paucity of data on transmissibility and severity of this new variant of concern. We probably will know more information in two weeks.

The Health Agency reports 564 new cases today based on 34,918 tests done last November 30 with 1.7% positivity rate. This is one of the lowest (if not the lowest) positivity rates the country has recorded. This also drops the 7-day average to 600 cases/day. Almost half of the active cases are moderate to critical.

There are 40 additional deaths today.

The NCR reports 104 new cases with Quezon City accounting for almost 1/3 of the total cases in Mega Manila. Central and Western Visayas are in second and third rank today with 69 and 57 cases, respectively. Cases in Central Visayas are driven from the province of Negros Oriental, specifically Dumaguete City.

It’s relatively a benign day as 7 LGUs report double digits with less than 30 cases (except for Quezon City), while the remaining in the top 20 LGUs are all single digits, with 5 cases as the least number.