It’s expected that the numbers would be low today. But it’s almost half the numbers yesterday as the Health Agency announces 3574 new cases from 23754 tests with a positivity of 16.3% done last February 6. With more recoveries than deaths, the active cases ease to just a little more than 105K with more than 95% of them being mild or asymptomatic when tested.

Health care utilization is low risk, most particularly in the NCR compared to the general population.

There are 83 additional deaths reported today. [Of these, 53 occurred in February while 24 in January this year. The rest or 7% of the announced deaths today were from June to December 2021].

Today’s granular breakdown of data shows the NCR owning 20% of the total cases in the country with 689 cases. Remember – a lot of people are not doing RT-PCR anymore, just self-test with antigen tests at home and do not report these positive results. The estimate of the cases are between 8-10x the actual number based on the current data with 20% positivity rate. This is also the estimate if we use the positivity results of the recent bar exams.

ALL regions had a decline in the number of cases. None reported quadruple digits and only three regions reported more than 300 cases – CALABARZON 368, Western Visayas 380, and Central Visayas 367. Six regions reported double digits while the rest reported 100 to less than 300 cases today.

In the NCR, all LGUs reported lower cases today than yesterday except for Malabon that reported 16 cases today compared to yesterday’s 14. Quezon City and the City of Manila had triple digits at 140 and 123, respectively.

Outside of NCR, the LGUs with most cases were Cebu City with 120 cases and Davao City with 116 cases.

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From OCTA Research (through the efforts of Prof. Guido David) is the current state of Mega Manila. As of February 6, the positivity rate has appreciably dropped below 10%. Cases are less than half the previous week average and the reproduction number continues to decline (which means that we will be able to sustain a lowering of cases in the coming week). ADAR is below 10 per 100K population and healthcare utilization rate is also at low risk.

Let’s just try to make Valentine’s Day an austere and healthy one and not risk the gains made. Omicron now dominates the genotype of SARS-CoV-2 in the country and there’s still a sprinkling of delta around. Fair reminder that celebrating a commercial occasion is not worth putting to risk your health and that of our loved ones for now.

After all, everyday should be Valentine’s Day.

The Health Agency reports 6835 new cases based on 36773 tests with a positivity rate of 19.1% done last February 5. This is most welcome news considering that this is also the first time since this last surge that the positivity rate dropped to less than 20%.

With more recoveries, the active cases are now at a little more than 116,000

Healthcare utilization rate is at low risk both nationally and in the NCR.

There are 12 deaths added today.

Let’s start off with the regions today.

NCR had the most cases with 968 (14.1%) of the 6835 cases for the day. This was followed by Western Visayas (829), Central Visayas (649), CALABARZON (611), Davao Region (602) and Central Luzon (536). All other regions reported triple digit cases and less than 500. Two regions reported double digits: BARMM (85) and Bicol Region (90).

Among LGUs in NCR, only three LGUs had triple digits: Quezon City with 190 cases, City of Manila 132, and Makati 113. All other LGUs report double digits with the following reporting more than 50 cases but less than 100: Parañaque (79), Pasig (77), Pasay (59) and Taguig City (57). Two LGUs report single digits – San Juan with 8 and Pateros with 5.

Outside of the LGUs in the NCR, Davao City kept the lead with 263 cases followed by Cebu City 179, Iloilo City 154 and Baguio City 139.

Among ROFs (returning overseas Filipinos), only ONE tested positive today.

The Health Agency announces 8361 new cases today based on 38675 tests with 21.5% positivity rate (very high) done last February 4. Around 96% of these active cases were asymptomatic to mild at the time of testing. Total cases are now past the 3.6M mark.

Health care utilization rate remains at low risk in general.

The sad news – 312 additional deaths announced today.

NCR took the bulk of cases today with 1271 (15%) cases. This was led by Quezon City with 222 cases and the City of Manila with 201. Makati City was in their with 102. All other LGUs reported double digits except for Pateros that had 8 cases.

Outside of NCR, all other regions reported triple digits, led by Davao Region 792, Central Luzon with 782, CALABARZON 775, Western Visayas 764, and Central Visayas with 757 cases.

Davao City remained the LGU in the country with most cases owning 334 of the 792 cases in the region.

Among Returning Overseas Filipinos, 31 were reported positive today.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The cases in the Philippines continue the declining trajectory with a reproduction rate around 0.75 (+/- 0.05). Staying below 1.0 is a good indicator that the cases will continue to decrease this upcoming week in spite of the high positivity rate in the country. Note that many countries including Japan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam have positivity rates more than 20%. Thailand has a positivity rate at 15%. With the omicron surge, it is difficult to keep track on contract tracing and testing the general population.

As of February 4, the 7-day average of the Philippines is at 11,787 new daily cases and is expected to report quadruple digits the upcoming week. Deaths average 59 per day due to reconciliation of late reports as well.

Compared to ASEAN nations and select Asian nations (Japan, South Korea, and Bangaladesh), the Philippines is the only country with a Rt at <1.0. Indonesia is seeing the beginning of their omicron surge as their Rt is up at 2.36. The country currently has a 7-day average of 18,000 per day and has reported more than 33000 new cases in a single day on February 5, 2022. South Korea has an Rt at 1.71 as the country sees a daily average case at more than 22000. As a matter of fact, with the more than 36,000 cases in S. Korea yesterday, the country has passed the 1 million mark for COVID19 cases.

Japan, with an Rt of 1.15 is seeing seeing a 7-day average of 86,000 daily cases. It broke its record of hitting the 100,000 daily cases in the past days as it rapidly crosses the 3 million mark yesterday for COVID19 cases.

While Japan may be seeing the most number of cases in this part of Asia, it is Singapore that actually has the most cases per capita (based on population size). This tiny country with less than 6 million people, has a Rt of 1.55 and is seeing an average of 6000 new daily cases (1075 per million population). The past days, Singapore has been reporting more than 10,000 new daily cases.

The first week of February ends with a high note – the cases are noticeably going down. The 7-day average drops to 11,000 based on yesterday’s data. With the cases today, we should be seeing four digit averages for the upcoming week.

The Health Agency reports 7689 new cases based on 40K plus tests with a positivity rate of 23.3% (still very high) last February 3. And with more than 22,500 recoveries, the active cases slip to 136,436 today.

Hospital utilization rate is also lower (considered low risk) both nationally and in Mega Manila.

There is one additional death today.

Today, Central Visayas topped all region with 1115 cases (489 from Negros Oriental and 230 from Cebu City).

Davao Region came in second with 883 cases (350 for Davao City).

NCR was in third with 877 cases, with Quezon City (171 cases) and City of Manila (136 cases) as the only LGUs in NCR with triple digits. Pateros had only 1 case.

Other regions that saw more than 700 cases were: Central Visayas with 754 and CALABARZON with 729.

Among returning overseas Filipinos there was NO REPORT of a positive case today.

The Health Agency announces 8564 new cases today based on a measly 37,932 tests with a positivity rate of 24.3% done last February 2. Note that this is the positivity rate for the country and not for each region or LGU. The positivity rate in NCR is lower (~18%) compared to the national. Still will more recoveries than cases, this brings down the active cases to a little more than 150K. Of these active cases, almost 97% were asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Health care utilization rate is generally at low risk in both the NCR and nationally.

There are 46 additional deaths announced.

NCR is back on top with 1535 (18%) of the total cases in the country. This was led by Quezon City (325) and the City of Manila (229). Other LGUs in NCR that reported triple digits were: Makati (126) and Pasig (117). The rest reported double digits, with Pateros as the lone LGU that had 5 cases.

Outside of NCR, CALABARZON was in second with 1166 cases and the only one with four digits aside from NCR, today. All other regions reported triple digits. Central Visayas followed with 869, Central Luzon with 839 and Davao Region with 803 cases. All other regions report less than 500 cases. Among LGUs in the country, Davao City had the most cases at 384.

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Prof. Guido David continues to track the omicron surge, this time looking at the provinces with a wine week positive growth rates. Highest growth rate goes to Davao Occidental (78%) and Camiguin (78%). Highest ADAR (average daily attack rate per 100,000 population) goes to Camiguin, Davao del Norte and South Cotabato. While the cases are on a decline in major HUCs (highly urbanized cities), the numbers in certain provinces continue to increase. These are also the same areas that have lower vaccination rates.

First of all, let’s rant about the Data Drop that is sorely missing from the Department of Health.

While it is understandable that perhaps a few of their personnel were sick with COVID-19 during the beginning of the omicron surge, I doubt that these same players are continuing a long haul of illness. If they are, they should be replaced because the Data Drop is important – not only to the data chasers like us, but also in the spirit of transparency on what is happening in the country.

While the COVID19 tracker of the DoH, that is available on its website, is accessible, the Data Drop is more comprehensive that it provides age, date of swabbing or onset of disease, date of death and when the deaths were reported, etc. These valuable information are important in how to model and project where this pandemic is leading to. After all, this kind of information should be shared by the government agency unless there is a different agenda in the last few months of the term of the president.

If there is noise that the media must make, it is this one. After all, they benefit from the projections provided by independent groups on how the country is doing in the pandemic and the various responses of the government.

There are 8702 new cases today based on 42,446 tests with 25.5% positivity last February 1 (Chinese Lunar New Year) which was a holiday. More recoveries than active cases bring down the active cases to 153,335 with almost 97% asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Health care utilization in general is at low risk.

There are 71 deaths added today.

Western Visayas led among regions today with 1044 cases followed by Central Visayas 833, CALABARZON 794, Davao Region 789, NCR 724 and SOCCKSARGEN 714. All other region reported less than 600 cases.

In the NCR (which is seeing much fewer cases today compared to other regions), only two LGUs reported triple digits – Quezon City 129 and Manila with 120 cases. LGUs with 50-99 cases were: Makati (61), Parañaque (58), and Taguig (61). The rest had less than 50 cases, with 2 LGUs reporting single digit – San Juan 8 and Pateros 3.

Nationally, the LGU that had the most cases was Davao City that reported 298 cases followed by Cebu City with 218 cases.

There were 36 positive ROFs (returning overseas Filipinos) today.

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OCTA Research data (manually painstakingly done by Prof. Guido David) shows how the NCR and CALBARZON provinces and certain areas in Luzon are doing in the current omicron surge. Notice that the positivity rate drops below 20% but remains high in NCR, Cavite, Quezon and Rizal. Reproduction rate is very low in all these areas as the growth rate continues its decline. ADAR is moderate in Batangas, Quezon and Rizal provinces.

In other HUCs (highly urbanized cities) in Luzon, notice also the decline in cases. However, the very scant testing is noticeable as the positivity rate is very high to severe in many of these HUCs. Puerto Princesa for example, has a positivity rate of 67% (or 2 in every 3 people tested are positive) and has a Rt that is at 1.73 in contrast to other HUCs in the country.

The Health Agency reports 7661 new cases based on 40,453 tests done with a positivity rate of 24.6% (very high) on the last day of January 2022. With more recoveries (again) today, the active cases drop to 160,297 and almost 97% of these were asymptomatic or mild at the time they were tested.

Healthcare utilization rate is now low risk in general (both nationally and in the NCR).

There are 43 additional deaths today.

The NCR continued the haul today with 1999 or 26% of the total cases in country based on Jan 31 data. This can either be backlogs adding up or because this is data on a Sunday, only NCR will have more laboratories testing. Quezon City led with 450 cases followed by Manila with 309. All other LGUs in NCR had less than 200 cases with Makati 161, Pasig 158, Caloocan 108, Parañaque 105, Las Piñas 103, and Pasay City 103. The cities of Malabon, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, San Juan, Valenzuela and Taguig had two digits numbers while Pateros reported 7 cases.

Outside of NCR, only CALABARZON had four digits as well with 1079 cases. All other regions saw triple digits including Western Visayas with 909 cases and Davao Region with 507. Central Luzon had 747 reported cases today.

Tomorrow will most likely be a four digits day (unless there are a lot of backlogs that get reported) and because the data tomorrow will be from February 1, most likely the bulk will come from NCR again, where close to 50% of the laboratories in the country are found.

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While the NCR is actually seeing lower cases (again let me emphasize that the positivity rate is still high, which is reflected in the daily high positivity rate because the DoH only records those with positive RT-PCR tests), the situation in the Visayas is also looking better.

Prof. Guido David of the OCTA RESEARCH GROUP breaks down the numbers and the data in the Visayas. Note the declining growth rate in these HUCs (highly urbanized cities), with certain areas seeing better parameters of decline such as Ormoc where the ADAR is now moderate, Tacloban where the reproduction rate is at 0.72, Lapu Lapu City where the healthcare utilization rate is low (<50%). The flip side is that the positivity rate in these areas is very high (>20%).

With a little more than 31,000 tests done last January 30 and a positivity of 28.8%, the Health Agency announces 9,493 new cases today. The last time the country reported more than 10,000 cases was January 5 (10,727 cases). With more recoveries today, the active cases drop to around 176,000 with 97.2% being mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing.

Healthcare utilization both nationally and in Mega Manila are at low risk (<50%).

There are 51 additional deaths today.

The NCR reported 1477 cases today (15.5%) led by Quezon City with 300 and the City of Manila with 209. The rest of the LGUs in Mega Manila had less than 200 cases.

Only one other region outside of NCR reported four digits – CALABARZON with 1165 cases. All other regions had triple or double digits. Even ROFs had only 29 positives today.

Nevertheless, more than 62% of the national cases are outside of NCR plus.