The official weekly report of the Health Agency announces 1,124 new cases for the week of May 2-8, 2022. That means a 20% decline in cases from the previous week as the 7-day average drops to 161 cases/day. While there are only 42 deaths reported (8 being recent), majority were backlogs. The bad news is that there were 14 severe and critical cases (1.33% of the new cases) this week.

Non ICU bed utilization drops from 16.3% the previous week to 15.4% this week (May 2-8). ICU Utilization is up from 16.1 to 16.8% with cases up from 456 to 474 this week. Severe and critical admissions are down to 611 from a previous of 723 the week prior.

Vaccination coverage is at 76.04% for fully vaccinated as more than 525,000 were added this week, while the A2 (senior citizen) coverage is up at 77.12%. There were 223,224 individuals that availed of a booster/additional dose the week of May 2-8, 2022.

The Health Agency announces 182 new cases and the fifth straight day of zero deaths from COVID19. NCR had 78 cases, accounting for 43% of today’s numbers.

One LGU in NCR posted double digits – City of Manila with 15 cases. All the rest are at single digits with three reporting zero covid. These three were: Valenzuela, Pateros and San Juan.

Outside of NCR, Cavite and Rizal were the only provinces with double digits. Cavite had 10, while Rizal had 14.

Positivity rate is at 1.1% for the start of the week.

The Health Agency announces 152 cases and 0 deaths (for the 4th consecutive day) with NCR accounting only for 29% of the total cases today.

Only Manila had double digits at 11, and while the rest had single digits, 5 LGUs reported zero covid. They were: Valenzuela, Malabon, San Juan, Pateros and Navotas.

Outside of NCR, the provinces with double digits were: Cavite 12, and Pampanga 14 (4 province, 11 Angeles City).

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

While the PH continued to show triple digit numbers in the upper 100s, we have reached the trough already as evident from the effective reproduction rate that rose from 0.9 to 0.98 this week. This means that the next few days, the daily COVID19 cases will play around the range of 150-250. Which isn’t really a good sign because we need to keep our eyes on the Rt. Any movement above 1.0 means that we are bound to see a steady rise (or jump) in COVID19 cases anytime soon.

The 7-day average as of May 7 stood at 176 new daily cases. Or around 1.62 cases per million population. But the reproduction rate is up at 0.98 (+/- 0.05), which means that there is no significant change in the numbers from the previous days. The good news is that the Health Agency has reported zero deaths for three consecutive days, bringing the 7-day average for deaths down to 14 newly announced deaths due to COVID19/day. (Note that deaths is a lagging parameter.*)

Compared to the other East Asian nations, it is Taiwan that is now seeing the brunt of the omicron surge. Unlike China which has a zero COVID tolerance policy, the vaccination success of Taiwan has limited their deaths and overwhelming health facilities in spite of the surge.

In terms of per capita (cases per million population), Taiwan now take the lead from South Korea with more than 1000 cases per million population.

We expect the cases in Taiwan to continue its upward trajectory in the next few weeks as their Rt remains very high. As a matter of fact, with the current numbers, Taiwan has now breached the 40,000 daily cases and is poised to have cases ranging from 60,000-90,000 this coming week.

Singapore is the only other country that has an Rt >1.0 and has plateaued at an average of 3000 new daily cases for the past week. The best performing country which will have the potential to see even lower cases are Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia in the coming week.

The Health Agency announces 175 new cases and for the third day in a row reports 0 deaths. NCR owned 45% (79) of the cases today.

Two LGUs in NCR continued to report double digits – City of Manila 19 and Quezon City 13. The rest report single digits and three LGUs had zero covid. Those with zero covid were: Muntinlupa, Malabon and Pateros.

Only one province reported double digits – Cavite with 13.

The 7-day positivity rate as of today stands at 1.2%.

The Health Agency announces 150 new cases today. It is the second consecutive day that we have ZERO deaths reported. The National Capital Region reports almost 50% of the cases for today. As the national election draws near, please make sure to follow minimum health standards in the polling places.

NCR had 73 cases – with the City of Manila leading the pack with 13 and Parañaque and Quezon City with 11 apiece. While most of the LGUs in NCR reported single digit numbers, two LGUs – Valenzuela and Pateros – had no covid cases.

Surprisingly, the province outside of NCR that had double digits was Bataan with 15 cases. All others had almost zero to single digit cases.

There were 168 new cases announced by the Health Agency today. No deaths were added to the tally.

As the number of cases lessen, the NCR will carry the burden of the daily numbers. Today, NCR owned 43.5% of the cases with Quezon City accounting for 14 and Makati 11. While the rest had single digits, six LGUs in Mega Manila report zero covid. These LGUs with zero covid were: Las Piñas, Mandaluyong, Marikina, Navotas, San Juan and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, only ONE province had double digits – Cavite – with 10 cases.

The Health Agency announces 159 new cases but added 27 deaths today.

The NCR owned 35% of the deaths with 55 cases.

Only one LGU in NCR continued to report double digits – City of Manila with 10 cases today. While the others had single digit numbers, 5 LGUs had zero covid. They were: Valenzuela, Muntinlupa, Marikina, Navotas and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, the province of Cavite led with the most number of cases at 16. The only other province with double digits today, aside from Cavite, was Isabela with 12 cases.

The Health Agency announces 134 new cases and 2 added deaths today. The NCR continued to own majority of cases with 53 recorded.

Only one LGU in the NCR had double digits – the City of Manila with 14 cases. All other LGUs had single digit numbers with three LGUs reporting zero covid. The latter were: Marikina, Malabon and Pateros.

Outside NCR, only one province reported double digit – Bulacan with 10 cases. Majority of the provinces and HUCs are now reporting zero cases or single digit number.

The Health Agency releases the week of April 25-May 1, 2022 summary report. While we had only 1399 new cases, the 7-day average cases stayed at 200 (the week before was 209) or a 5% drop in total cases for the week of April 25-May 1 versus April 18-24. Of the 215 deaths reported the past 7 days, only 40 of them were recent. The 175 were backlog cases. Incidentally, there were more deaths this week (215) than last week (213).

The over-all healthcare utilization is slightly down this week at 16.3% (vs 16.9% last week) for non ICU beds and at 16.1% (vs 16.9% last week) for ICU bed utilization. However, the number of severe and critical admissions did not significantly change (726 last week vs. 723 this week).

Vaccination coverage of eligible population as fully vaccinated is up from 74.98% to 75.45% this week. However, the number of vaccinees this week was an added 425,000+ people. A2 coverage is a tad up at 76.48% this week compared to 76.35% last week. There were less individuals who took advantage of a booster or additional dose this week (292,000+) compared to last week (297,000+).

Again, there were no added severe or critical cases this week. This should be interpreted with caution as this meant that these were patients who presented as critical/severe at the time of swabbing.

The Health Agency announces 188 new cases and 3 deaths today. NCR owned 75 or 40% of today’s cases. Only two LGUs reported double digits in NCR – Caloocan City 12 and Manila 11. The rest reported single digits with Marikina, Malabon and Pateros reporting zero covid.

Outside of NCR, two provinces reported double digits. Cavite 12 and Iloilo 15 (13 provinces, 2 city).

The Health Agency reports 253 new cases and 56 deaths for today. NCR had 96 cases today.

The full report on the rising effective reproduction numbers for the country below. Four LGUs report double digits. They were: Makati 13, Manila 12, Pasay and Quezon City 11, apiece. Other LGUs in NCR report single digit with one reporting zero covid – Pateros.

Provinces/HUCs that had double digit cases were: Cavite 15, and Puerto Princesa City 17.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

While the Philippines continued to report lower cases this week compared the previous, the decline in cases is actually slower now. Notice that the effective reproduction number is now at 0.90 (+/- 0.05). Meaning? We have reached a trough. The average daily cases will fluctuate between 150-250. And that’s really not good news. While the over-all healthcare system is not currently overwhelmed, the daily events on campaign and election pose a very high risk for a possible ‘surge’ in cases before the end of May. If that Rt breaches 1.0, we should be concerned.

For now, the 7-day average for the PH is at 187 new daily cases (1.68 per 1M population). A tad down for last week’s 210.

The fluctuation in deaths due to backlogs is frustrating. The Health Agency needs to clean up all data on mortalities immediately, while the cases are currently low so that real-time mortality rates can be correlated with the situation of the pandemic in the country and how these cases contribute to over-all mortality.

Comparing our data with other parts of East Asia, notice that the reproduction rate is highest is two Chinese nations – Taiwan and China. While all other countries are seeing a lower Rt, it is Indonesia, Brunei and Vietnam that have made significant strides in lowering the numbers. With this, Indonesia’s cases are actually lower per capita than the Philippines.

South Korea sees a significant drop in their cases, while Taiwan and China see rising cases in their territories. On a per capita (number of cases/million population) basis, it is Taiwan that has moved up to third rank in this part of the region.

The Health Agency reports 240 cases today, with 36 added deaths. The surprise? NCR owned more than half of the daily cases.

While still considered low by other standards, the dropping of several minimum health standards and the relatively low first boosters (32%) of the NCR shows the vulnerability of a dense region for resurgence of cases anytime.

Mega Manila posted 126 new cases today, with five LGUs reporting double digits. These were: City of Manila 25, Pasay City 15, Parañaque 13, Makati 12, and Pasig 10. Other LGUs reported single digit with 2 LGUs reporting zero covid. The latter were, Malabon and Pateros.

Outside of NCR, only the province of Cavite posted double digit numbers with 13 cases today.