The backlogs inevitably had to be counted. So today’s 28,007 new cases announced by the Health Agency for 58,409 tests done on January 9 with a positivity rate of 44.5% included around 3,000 backlog reports.

Active cases are now at more than 180,000 as the country breaches the 3M COVID-19 count. Notice, however, the increase HCUR (health care utilization capacity) in the country and most especially in the NCR.

While more than 97% of the cases are mild or asymptomatic AT THE TIME OF TESTING, hospitalization and progression of disease is a lagging indicator.

There are 219 additional deaths today.

Resident OCTA Fellow, Prof. Guido David, drills down the situation in the NCR as it plows through a severe outbreak for COVID19. Notice the almost 700% jump in 7-day average cases of the week December 28, 2021 – January 3, 2022 versus the January 4-10, 2022 week. And the outbreak is spiraling out of control (not that it isn’t obvious because anyone who denies this is either blind or dumb) as the other parameters – ADAR, Rt, positivity rate in tests – have gone through the roof.

While the hospitalization and ICU utilization rate may still be at moderate risk, remember that this is a lagging indicator and because healthcare worker manpower is severely affected, there is a disconnection between the bed capacity and manpower capacity. Many hospitals in the NCR are currently undermanned and cannot accept patients because of this critical situation among HCWs.

So the cases continue to rise. And there are a few key take away points the readers should remember.

1. Even if there are more tests being done lately, the longer turn around time is making the RT-PCR result less useful. It also means that the data is not real-time as the results from tests are pending.
2. With even laboratory personnel and other healthcare workers sick or in quarantine, the test results will definitely be delayed. Quality control is also vital because if the lab personnel is sick, then it is highly likely that contamination of specimen can result in a false positive test.
3. Rapid antigen tests are not included in the daily numbers. There is no approximation here, but it can be 3-5x higher than what is being reported.

With that introduction, the Health Agency reports 33,169 new cases today, based on more than 73,000 tests done last January 8 with a positivity rate of 46%. NCR’s positivity rate is already past 50%, so the data is now a blur in Mega Manila. The active cases spike up to more than 157,000 as the total number of COVID19 cases in the Philippines will break the 3M mark tomorrow.

It’s important to remember that the bed capacity CANNOT and SHOULD not be used as an indicator of moderate risk because the proportion of healthcare workers who are sick is the disconnection here. Obviously, bed capacity is low because the wards are closed, because manpower is down. An intelligent manager would take this into consideration.

How a holiday break and the presence of Omicron could send the country spiraling out of control in the pandemic are beyond belief.

There are 145 additional deaths today.

The NCR accounted for fewer cases today at 56% of the total cases, in spite of the more than 18,000 in the region. But CALABARZON and Central Luzon continue the surge of cases as CALABARZON now approaches almost the 10,000 cases mark. Almost all regions are seeing a slow but steady rise of cases.

The four provinces that led the provincial numbers today are: Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan and Laguna. The province of Benguet now joins the top 10 provinces and we may be seeing a rise in their cases soon. The cases in Northern Luzon are on an upward trend.

Among LGUs, 15 of the 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 list, led by Quezon City with almost 5000 cases and the City of Manila with more than 2,500 cases. Four other NCR LGUs report quadruple digits, while the LGU in 20th spot is Imus, Cavite with 427 cases today.

With 77,479 tests done on January 7 and a positivity rate of 44%, the Health Agency reports 28,707 new cases today as the active cases climb to more than 128,000. Majority of the active cases are mild. Hospital ward beds are now filled at 65% while ICU utilization is at 52%.

We will breach 3M COVID19 cases anytime soon (Monday or Tuesday). Because we are not counting those that test positive on Rapid Antigen Tests, our numbers are under counted. Hospital manpower is also down, which accounts for many hospitals not accepting patients for admission. In reality, because COVID19 is NOT a medical emergency, I would encourage people not to crowd the ER of the hospitals for COVID19 testing only.

There are 15 added deaths today.

NCR accounted for a little less than 59% of the cases today as the cases in the other regions are seeing a gradual rise. CALABARZON and Central Luzon continue the four digits run, while 10 other regions led by Bicol Region and Western Visayas. There are 91 ROFs (returning overseas foreigners) who tested positive as well.

Four provinces from CALABARZON and Central Luzon lead the provincial tally with four digits – Cavite, Bulacan, Rizal and Laguna.

As usual, it is Quezon City and the City of Manila that lead the LGUs and the national cases for the day. Thirteen of 17 LGUs are in the top 20 list, with the city of Calamba in Laguna rounding up the 20th spot with 263 cases, the fewest in the top 20 today.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

That needle-rise in cases is being experienced globally. In less than 2 months since Omicron was reported by South Africa, the variant of concern has spread throughout the globe. And every nation is grappling with containing its spread. The balance of economy and healthcare now tips in a different direction. While many cases may be mild (due to vaccination status and reinfections), the number of cases has made it more difficult to manage as healthcare manpower is unduly affected. In short, while there are beds, there are not enough people to man the hospitals (and laboratories).

An overview of the past 7 day situation in the Philippines (January 1-7, 2022) shows how Omicron has affected the cases, tests, positivity and reproduction rate.

Comparing the cases to other countries within the region and Australia, the surge is insurmountable. All countries are seeing an uptick in cases (with Indonesia seeing only a minor rise). The Philippines jumps from 0.7 cases per million to 88 per million within a week span.

In the same countries above, while Australia has the most cases per capita, it is the distinction of the Philippines to own the highest reproduction rate. We need to bring the Rt down so that the cases stop the steep incline. That has been repetitively the goal of every surge.

Based on information from OCTA Fellow, Professor Guido David, here’s the march of how several LGUs in the NCR, Regions IVA and III have seen their cases grow.

The Health Agency reports 26,458 new cases today (eclipsing the highest last September 11 of 26,208 cases). Today’s data is based on 77,004 tests done last January 6 with a startling 43.7% positivity rate.

The active cases are past 100,000 already and the numbers climb significantly with mild cases making up almost 95% of the actives at the time of swabbing.

ICU utilization jumps to 51% in the NCR as the ward beds are up at 62%.

Additional 265 deaths were reported today by the Department of Health.

It was a sad day as many areas in NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon are seeing very high cases with today’s surge in cases. While NCR accounted for a little over 61% of the cases, Mega Manila had cases that was almost as much as the whole country of Vietnam (which recorded 16,553 cases as a nation) yesterday. CALABARZON and Central Luzon continued the rise in cases and had four digits. Notice, however, that Cagayan Valley, Ilocos region, Central Visayas, CAR and Western Visayas now have more than 200 cases each.

Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan and Laguna accounted for the bulk of cases among the top ten provinces. with quadruple digits.

Thirteen of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila make record breaking numbers as well to make it to the top twenty. The rest of the LGUs in the top 20 list are from all provinces in Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.

A lot of inquiries regarding when we will peak.

For one, God only knows as more and more people close to home are turning up positive for COVID-19. And while that is the downside, the good news is that majority of those vaccinated (especially the ones with recent boosters) are presenting mildly.

Reminder – please make sure that if you have signs and symptoms, do not go into denial. Isolate and Test. If positive, isolate immediately. Here’s a quick guide on isolation and quarantine time, depending on vaccination status, recently released by the Department of Health. These guidelines are NOT cast in stone. They change regularly depending on the situation of the pandemic and the predominant variant of concern that is circulating in the community.

Today, the Health Agency reports 21,819 new cases today based on more than 70,000 tests done (the highest number ever) with a horrific 40% positivity rate! In the NCR, positivity rate is estimated at almost 50% – where 1 in every 2 people tested will likely test positive.

This pushes now the active cases to more than 77,000 with 92% of them presenting as mild.

Bed utilization is up at close to 60% while ICU rate is at 48% in the NCR.

There are 129 additional deaths today.

The late upload of the Health Agency on the data drop shows that NCR continued to lead with most cases. Note, however, the drop in the share of cases from 72% to 62.5% for Mega Manila, but the increase in cases in region contingent to the area – CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

Quezon City and the City of Manila are frontrunners among LGUs with most cases, with 16 of the 17 LGUs in NCR making it to the top 20.

Three provinces report quadruple digits – Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.

OCTA Fellow, Guido David, plots the data of the NCR as of January 7, 2022. Notice how needle-steep the rise in cases is with what we now believe is an Omicron driven jump on cases. This is most likely also due to the unguarded moments during the last Christmas holiday. Note, however, that Delta is still a significant driving force in the community. And as NCR battles it out with the virus with an Rt of 5.69, these projections will have a larger margin of error as many of the cases go undetected.

For now, the DoH has recorded 29 additional Omicron cases and 18 Delta (as of January 2, 2022). The question is, when were these samples taken? But one thing is clear with the rise in cases, is the omnipresence of omicron as seen in the trajectory of new cases since after December 25, 2021.

Today, the Health Agency reports 17,220 new cases based on almost 60,000 tests done last January 4, 2022 with a staggering positivity rate of 36.9%! Because the testing facilities can only do so many tests in a single day, we will never see the real picture of the daily new cases because of the limitation also in testing capacity. This brings the total number of active cases to over 56,000, with around 90% of them being mild.

The hospital utilization is up at 50% and the ICU utilization also up at 43% in spite the lack of manpower in the hospitals (healthcare workers) because many are exposed or sick as well.

Additional 81 deaths are reported today.

NCR accounted for 67.5% or lower cases today. There is now a slight shift to rise in cases in CALABARZON and Central Luzon. Six other regions report triple digits.

Cavite and Rizal provinces how report quadruple digits each. 14 of the 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20. With high numbers in NCR, why are not all the 17 LGUs in NCR in the top 20? Because other LGUs in other areas in Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan are seeing a dramatic rise in cases as the fewest cases in the list for the top 20 is 168 – with the city of Dasmariñas in Cavite taking the spot.

The year isn’t really starting on the right footing. With cases rising exponentially, the Health Agency announces 10,775 new cases based on 44,643 tested with an astounding 31.7% positivity. This trajectory of positivity and new cases are mostly concentrated in the National Capital Region for now. The active cases now are almost 40,000 with 85% of these being mildly ill. It will be awhile before we see any plateauing as the positivity rate is rising by >5% daily.

There are 58 added deaths today.

Hospital utilization is markedly up at 45% while ICU utilization also is up at 37% in the National Capital Region. A few more days with this exponential rise and we would be eventually filling up the healthcare capacity.

NCR accounted for almost 70% of the total cases (again) today with 7,479 of the 10,775 new cases today. CALABARZON is up at 4 digits as well and Central Luzon and Western Visayas have triple digits. Quezon City grabs a hefty lead with 1,781 cases and the City of Manila in second with 1,407.

Six provinces report triple digits today, led by Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan and Laguna.

Fifteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20, with 2 reporting double digits and 14 reporting triple digits. The disproportionate upward trajectory of cases has caused concern among Filipinos who are panicking over the rapid exponential rise in cases.

Tuesdays are usually low cases days. That’s because these are tests done on a Sunday. Today was an exception to the rule as the Health Agency announces 5,434 new cases based on 24,855 tests done last January 2, a Sunday, with a skyrocketing 26.2% positivity rate. There are cases that are still being validated, so the unreported cases today will still be reckoned in the days to come. With today’s numbers, the active cases jumps close to 30,000 with 80% of them being mild. Notice, however, the jump in hospital utilization in the NCR to 36% and the ICU to 35% from a previous 25%.

And no, there is no plateauing yet. It so happened that the reported cases yesterday and today were from January 1 and 2 – both holidays.

There are 18 added deaths today.

NCR kept the lead as it continued to account for >70% of the total cases in the country. This time, Quezon City overtakes the City of Manila to lead with 999 cases vs. 786. Notice, however, the pace in the rise of cases in the regions of CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, and Laguna report triple digits.

Fifteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 LGUs with most cases, with 12 of the Mega Manila cities reporting triple digits today. The city of Cainta in Rizal topped the provincial LGUs with 104 cases.

The numbers really look bad. While there are fewer cases today (and hopefully tomorrow but I don’t think that we will have a low Tuesday) than yesterday, the number of individuals tested was far far less because the announced numbers are based on tests done on January 1, 2022, a holiday.

At the beginning of the year, 18,587 tests were done with a positivity rate of 20.7%. This pushes up the active cases close to 25,000! The active cases are mostly mild in almost 80% of them.

Hospital utilization is up and the ICU beds are now at 29% (although still low risk) in the NCR. If the cases continue to rise, so will hospital utilization eventually. And the very steep rise is not about to abate anytime soon. Everyone needs to do their part in making sure that when they are sick or feel sick, to isolate and get tested NOW!

An additional 16 deaths were added today.

The NCR continued to account for more than 70% of the total cases in the country with 2,849 new cases. The city of Manila and Quezon City kept the lead with 694 and 595 cases respectively. CALABARZON and Central Luzon continued to tail NCR with all the other regions keeping low numbers.

Cavite keep the lead among provinces with most cases.

Fifteen of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases, with 12 of the 15 reporting triple digits. Five of the LGUs in the list are from Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.

The holiday rush, and the combined forces of delta and omicron changed the landscape of the pandemic in the Philippines within a 7 day period. The exponential rise in cases is a major cause for concern because of its potential effect on both the healthcare system and economy.

The Health Agency reports a positivity rate of almost 20% for December 31, where only 26,122 tests were done resulting in 4,600 new cases announced today. This pushes the active cases past 21,000 and the mild to more than 75% of the total active cases.

There are 25 additional deaths announced today.

The NCR continued to see rising cases as the region accounted for 72% of the total cases today with the City of Manila accounting for almost 30% of the share of cases in NCR. Cases in CALABARZON and Central Luzon are also up.

But it is Mega Manila that is at the eye of the storm.

All LGUs in NCR, except Pateros, are in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day, with 11 of 17 LGUs reporting triple digits. The rise in cases do no include patients who self test with antigen kits in their homes. These are all data only from RT-PCR, so the numbers may even be higher.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

There will be a mix of data for this week because within a 7 day period, the numbers exponentially rose in the country. From a daily average of < 300 cases, yesterday ended with 3,610 or more than an 12x rise of new cases (and an increase in positivity rate from 0.9% to 16%) within the same time interval.

In summary, you’re really not going to see the worse of data this week. Undeniably, these numbers will be sustained for awhile before it gets better. The problem is that 70% of the total national cases are concentrated in the NCR, which is always the driving force or the epicenter of this pandemic in the Philippines.

While the effective reproduction rate as of December 27 shows the increase in Rt of the Philippines, it jumped from lowest Rt last week to third highest in select Asian countries as of this date. With the increase in cases, the country will most likely see a rapid increase in reproduction quicker than expected.