Relative Joy

The Health Agency reports 300 more cases today than the previous day with 2,656 new cases today, enough to break the 2.8M mark. With more than 5000 recoveries, the active cases drop to less than 35,000.

Close to 50,000 tests were done last November 4, with a positivity rate at 5.6%, lower than the previous days.

There are 154 new deaths announced today, bringing the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.59%.

While NCR continued to lead among regions with 454 (17%) new cases today, it was Cagayan Valley who saw an increase as the delayed reports from that region came in today. Central Luzon, Central Visayas and CALABARZON reported more than 200 cases.

On a provincial level, Negros Oriental led the pack, with 4 provinces in Northern Luzon in the top 10. The are: Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet and Pangasinan.

At the level of the LGU, Quezon City was the only city or municipality that reported triple digits. As a matter of fact, its 116 cases accounted for 26% of the cases in the National Capital Region – the biggest contributor to the share of cases in Mega Manila. Nine of 17 LGUs in the top 20 list are from NCR. The fewest cases on an LGU level was 19 today. Which means that if your city or municipality reports more than 19 cases, you’re most likely to be in the top 20 list. In the top ten LGUs, 4 were from NCR while 6 were from LGUs outside of NCR. Five LGUs in the top 20 are from Northern Luzon.

The 7-day average in the Philippines has dropped to 2,816, its lowest since March 2021. The National Capital Region also sees a decline in the 7-day average to less than 500 cases/day.

Backlog data gradually build up and get reported during the weekends.

The Health Agency reports 2,376 new cases today, up by around 500 cases from yesterday.

Tests done last November 3 was more than 44,000 with a 6.5% positivity. Total active cases remain at around 37,000.

Additional 260 deaths are added today with deaths now exceeding the 44,000 mark.

NCR accounted for almost 20% of today’s cases with 378 new cases. Central Visayas came in second, followed by CALABARZON with 209 and 201 cases, respectively.

Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental and Zamboanga del Sur were the top three provinces with most cases and together with Cagayan reported triple digits.

On an LGU level, 19 cases in an LGU meant that they would be in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day. This is why 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 list. In the top 10, however, 7 of the 10 in this group were from LGUs outside of NCR. Zamboanga City took the overall lead among LGUs with most cases. The rest in the top 10 are: Davao City, Dumaguete City, Pudtol (Apayao), Bacolod City, Puerto Princesa City, and Baguio City.

It was obviously going to be higher today, as more tests were done on November 2. The positivity rate was at 6.6%, which is still quite a decent number considering that testing has been lower particularly in areas outside of NCR plus eight (see the data below).

The Health Agency announces 1,766 new cases today and with more recoveries than cases, the number of active cases in the country are a little more than 37K.

An additional 239 deaths are reported today.

We should hit the 2.8M mark on or before Sunday.

The NCR accounted for almost 20% of the total cases today, with other regions seeing lower numbers. Cagayan Valley remained in second but dropping proportionally to the over-all cases in the country.

It was a hodgepodge of distribution for the various provinces in the country, with Cagayan, Isabela and Benguet in the top five.

Among cities/municipalities, Quezon City took back the lead with 77 cases or 22% of the total cases for the National Capital Region. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases. However, due to the lower number of cases, it is a give that more LGUs in NCR would make it to the list as the fewest cases in the top 20 is now at 18.

Among the top 10 LGUs, however, only 2 were from NCR. The rest were from cities/municipalities outside of Mega Manila. The include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Santa Ana (Cagayan), Bacolod City, Pudtol (Apayao), Antipolo (Rizal), Lubang (Mindoro Occidental), and Davao City.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Three and a half months into the latest surge and this is where we stand in the National Capital Region. Our reproduction number is at < 0.5 (something we have never achieved at any time in the pandemic except now), active cases down to 7,422 (for a population of almost 14M occupying 660 square kilometers of land), and a positivity rate at 4%. While there are still quite a number of ICU beds occupied, severely ill patients take quite awhile to recuperate, but this should free up soon.

Hopefully we can even do better in the next 4 weeks as we run up to the Christmas holidays.

As of November 2, all the LGUs are now considered low risk, with Cebu City achieving excellent work at sustaining their very low risk category as cases there continue to decrease further and has the lowest positivity tests among the nine highest risk LGUs at 2%. Their ICU and health care utilization is also less than 20%.

[Both infographics are from Prof. Guido David, PhD, Fellow, OCTA Research]

It’s been awhile that we’ve even touched cases this low.

Our November and December 2020 numbers were between 1,500-2,500 cases. We touched triple digits for a few days in the end of December 2020 because of the holidays (fewer tests done).

The Health Agency reports 1,591 new cases today, and with more recoveries than cases, the active cases now drop to a little more than 38,000.

There were a little below 30,000 tests done last November 1, a holiday, with 5.6% positivity (which was even lower than the previous days).

We will know the actual data this weekend as the long weekend is over.

Sadly, there are an additional 186 new deaths. Bringing the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.57%.

NCR had 237 cases today or 14.9% of the total cases in the country, the lowest share in a day for Mega Manila. Ilocos Norte surprising came in second with CALABARZON in third. Only 7 regions reported triple digits.

Several provinces in Northern Luzon continued to contribute to the most cases on a provincial level. This was topped by Pangasinan. Others included are: Cagayan, La Union. Isabela, Ifugao, and Benguet.

There is a shift in LGUs with most cases for today. Zamboanga City snatched the top spot from Quezon City, 7 of 17 LGUs from NCR were in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The lowest number of cases in the top 20 was 12. Which means that as the cases continue to drop, if an LGU had only 12 cases for the day, they’d be in the top 20.

It’s been awhile that we’ve seen the two thousand mark and today is a good day with the number of cases.

The last time we touched this low mark was March 4 where the Philippines had 2,444 cases. With more recoveries than cases, the number of active cases are down to a little more than 40K.

Almost 30,000 tests were done on October 31, a Sunday. The positivity rate is at 6.8%. We most likely will have similar numbers tomorrow as November 1 was a holiday and the number of tests may not have been significant as well.

Total deaths added today is 128.

While NCR reported 454 cases today. As mentioned before, as the cases in the other regions begin to decline, NCR will now account for a greater proportion of the cases (unless it dramatically makes a miraculous turn around). Today, it contributed to almost 20% of the total, up from 18% the previous day.

Quezon City made the splash accounting for 48% of the total cases in NCR alone. It was also the only LGU that reported triple digits. It has more cases than the combined provinces of Benguet and Negros Occidental.

With that said, 6 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20. Which means that 14 LGUs outside of the NCR are in today’s top list. Majority of them are from Northern Luzon.

The Philippines continued to report lower cases today with positivity rate of 7.5%. Only 41,712 tests were done last October 30, and would expect even fewer tests for yesterday October 31 and today November 1 because they are holidays in the country.

With more recoveries than cases announced, the active cases now dips lower to around 43,000.

There are 104 new deaths announced today.

NCR reported 537 new cases or 17.2% of the total cases in the country today. Two regions in Northern Luzon continue to trail NCR – Cagayan Valley and CAR. Notice that there are more regions now seeing double digit cases as provinces outside of NCR are slowing down in cases as well. Although this may be correlated also with fewer testing done.

Among provinces, 5 of 10 provinces in the top 10 list were from Northern Luzon. This was led by Isabela, followed by Cagayan, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Ifugao.

On a city/municipality level, Quezon City kept the lead. As a matter of fact, Quezon City alone accounted for almost 30% of the total cases in NCR. It was also the only LGU in the country that continuously reports triple digit cases. Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty. The striking data today showed that 7 LGUs in Northern Luzon were among the top 20.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

This week is a new beginning. Will we see better data for the month of November in the NCR? We need to sustain the momentum. That means, and I’ve been saying this already, is to keep the R at <0.5. Keeping above this just does not cut it. Because it is the major economic hub and the epicenter for cases in the country due to its density (highest number of people by region in terms of land area), my personal opinion is that the only way it should be allowed to move to a lower alert level from the current level 3 is if it keeps R <0.5 for 2 consecutive weeks or account for only 10% of the total cases in the country for 2 consecutive weeks.

Navotas is the only LGU that has markedly improved in terms of cases, ADAR and R. Notice that it is the only LGU of 17 LGUs in NCR that is at very low risk with 1.48 cases/100,000 population and a R of 0.27.

While the positivity rate of NCR in general is at 5%, the growth rate is up for some cities (unlike the previous week where all were on the decline). Those LGUs with positive growth rates include: Malabon, Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Pateros, Makati, Mandaluyong and San Juan.

Both Mandaluyong and San Juan have high risk for their ADAR, while ICU utilization is at moderate risk for Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Makati and San Juan.

The Health Agency reported 3,410 new cases on the last day of October for 2021.

With close to 6,000 recoveries, the active cases hover at 45,000.

There were 46,450 tests done last October 29 with a 7.2% positivity rate.

Even the healthcare utilization particularly ICU rates are lower both nationally (46%) and in the NCR (39%).

There were 128 additional deaths reported today.

NCR reported 370 or owned 16.7% of the total cases of the country today. While CALABARZON is back in second, Cagayan Valley and CAR still contributed significantly to the cases today.

On a provincial level, Isabela and Benguet were on top of the list.

Quezon City accounted for 26% of the cases in NCR. That means that one LGU alone accounted for more than 1/4 of the cases in Mega Manila. With lower cases today, 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty list. Which meant that the bar for number of cases to be in the top 20 has to be lower – now at 24 – as the ceiling. As the cases begin to wind down, the contribution of each LGU matters – and the objective is to drive down the numbers to single digit!

Striking is that among the top 10 LGUs with most cases, six LGUs outside of NCR are in the list, They include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Lubang, Bacolod City, Davao City and Cebu City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It’s been a continuously good week for the Philippines as the numbers dip down further to a 7-day average of around 4500 cases/day. At the current R, this should go further down as the first week of November. As we see no new variant of concern in the offing, the projected 2 week 7-day average should be around 3,000-4,000 cases/day.

Testing has slowed down significantly as well, but the over-all positivity rate has considerably dropped to < 10% in the last 2 weeks, with NCR reporting only 5% positivity rate and Cebu City reporting 2% positivity.

A quick look at our ASEAN neighbors show that as of October 28, Thailand continued to lead among ASEAN nations in the 7-day average of cases per day. Indonesia and Japan continue its triple digit numbers with Japan reporting less than 300 daily cases. This is, however, not corrected based on population size.

Factoring population size of the same select Asian countries in the above graph, in order to get the cases and deaths for COVID19 per capita, Singapore leads in the number of cases per million population, while Malaysia leads in the number of deaths per million population.

The reproduction rate for the same select countries shows both Singapore and South Korea with a R >1.0, while the other countries are seeing a continuing lower R. The most improved country this week was the Philippines, with a national R at 0.71 (+/- 0.05).

While the Health Agency reports 4,008 new cases today, with more recoveries, the active cases are now at less than 48,000. We will more or less end this week with a 7-day average of around 4500 cases/day.

There were a little more than 50,000 tests done on October 28 with a 7.8% positivity rate.

It was the deaths that was the shocker for the day. The Department of Health announced 423 deaths (most likely from backlogs but reported only today), as the Philippines crosses the 43,00 mark for deaths and 1.56% case fatality rate based on outcomes.

CASES

The NCR continued to stay on top among regions with most cases. However, it accounted for a lower 15.6% of the total national cases and is down to a positivity rate of 5% (compared to the national 7-day average of 7.8%). Regions in Northern Luzon are back on top with Cagayan Valley and CAR in second and third spot today.

On a provincial level, Isabela, Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya took the top three spots. Two other provinces in Northern Luzon are in the top 10 list – Ifugao and Cagayan.

It was inevitable them that on an LGU level, Baguio City would top the list as it had more cases than Quezon City today. While 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 most cases by city or municipality, five LGUs in the top ten were outside of NCR. They are: Zamboanga City, Davao City, Luna (Isabela), and Itogon (Benguet).

DEATHS

It was an interesting day for death reports, as the Philippines reported 423 deaths today. The highest in a single day. For today only, this is the breakdown for the death reports from the data drop of the Health Agency.

Todays deaths were mostly from September and October, and many more than a month late. There were 22 cases that went as far back as August 2021 and even one came from a year ago November 2020.

By region, it was Davao Region and Central Visayas that accounted for most of the death (late or not) reports.

On a provincial level, it was Davao Del Sur and Cebu Province that also led the deaths for the day.

Logically, on an LGU level, most deaths were from Davao City and several LGUs in the Cebu Province.

With the DoH adding more than 3,400 cases midday today to yesterday’s cases, the total cases for October 28 was really 7,133.

Hopefully, the announcement of the Health Agency on the 4,043 new cases is more accurate and we do not get SURPRISE mid day reports tomorrow. With more cases than recoveries, the active cases hover at the 50,000 mark as the DoH announces 52,064 tests done on October 27 with 8.6% positivity.

There were 44 new deaths added today.

NCR added 660 new cases (16.3%) of today’s total cases, for a R of 0.55 (+/- 0.05 confidence interval), to continue leading among regions with most cases but on the lower range of percentage shares for the nation. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are back in second and third spots as the economy in the NCR plus areas begin to reopen.

Rizal tops the provincial level, followed by Negros Oriental and Negros Occidental.

The story of the day are the various LGUs – cities and municipalities. While 11 of 17 LGUs in the NCR were still in the top 20 list, it was the top 10 that was the surprise. Only three LGUs from NCR were in the top 10 – ever leader Quezon City, Pasig and the city of Manila. Seven LGUs in the top 10 list were: Antipolo, Zamboanga City, Koronadal, Davao City, Lubang, General Santos and Dumaguete City.

Not bad for a Thursday haul as the Health Agency reports 3,694 cases today. With almost equal numbers recovering, the active cases drop to less than 50,000.

There were 50,755 tests done last October 26 with 8.6% positivity. There is likely a backlog in today’s data and will be reflected this week.

A total of 227 new deaths are reported today.

Health care utilization and ICU rate remains moderate in both the NCR and the national level.

UPDATE

With the announcement of adjustments of backlog cases, additional 3,439 new cases from September 29 to October 18 and added only to COVIDKAYA on October 27, puts the total of cases to 7,133 for October 28, 2021

Officially, the Philippines reported 7,133 newly announced cases on October 28. Most of the cases added are considered recovered while only 22 remained active. Two deaths were reported from this ‘second’ report.

The post will not be complete if the granular data for the 7,133 cases are not uploaded on the blog.

For completeness, NCR continued to lead with 1,303 or 18.2% of the cumulative total cases for yesterday and the late report today. CALABARZON was in second, while CAR came in third.

On a provincial level, Benguet took the lead, but several provinces in the CALABARZON region were in the top ten, including Laguna, Rizal, Batangas and Cavite.

Quezon City continued to be the LGU to beat on a city/municipality level, but was the only LGU in the NCR in the top 5. The other LGUs in the top five were: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Davao City and Antipolo City (2nd to fifth spot in that order).