If there are two days of the week we look forward to, even during a surge, it’s Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
When this trend is broken and the cases exceed the other days of the week, we know that this pandemic is headed north. But it isn’t. The Health Agency reported 5,683 new cases today and 9,028 new recoveries, bringing the active cases lower to 6.2% (66,060). This brings the total COVID-19 cases in the country closer to 1.07 M, which we will most likely achieve tomorrow.
Positivity rate is lower than 15% today, the lowest it has come since the start of the overwhelming surge. In spite of this, this is still a far cry from the 5% cut-off of the World Health Organization and will still be a long way to go. Occupancy of intensive care units in hospitals is still a high of 74%.
There are now over 1,000,000 cases with outcomes – 92.2% recovering and 1.65% resulting in deaths. With the 97 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) stands at 1.76%.
Note, however, that 21 laboratories were unable to submit data for today.
The number of cases in NCR was less than 2,000 because of the lower total cases reported. CALABARZON was in second with 1,146 new cases. Ten other regions continued to report triple digits.
In the NCR, Quezon City continued tolled with cases but the top five included Taguig, Manila Caloocan and for the first time, Muntinlupa City lands in fifth. Fourteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.
Among the top ten provinces, Rizal and Cavite continued to lead. Negros Occidental, however, came in third with 273 cases.
The first Monday of May kicks off with 7,255 new cases, a relatively lower number than the previous Mondays. While we may be seeing slightly lower cases, it was enough to push us past Romania to secure the 25th rank in the world with most number of COVID-19 cases. Romania is currently averaging 1,800 cases a day, while 24th rank Iraq is averaging around 6,500 new daily cases.
With 9,214 recoveries announced, the active cases are a bit shy of 70,000 (6.5%). The positivity rate for May 1, 2021, reported today is at 15.7%. Utilization for Intensive Care Beds are up at 74 percent.
Number of new deaths reported was 94. This brings down the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) to 1.77%.
There were less than 2500 cases reported for the NCR. CALABARZON remained in second with 1,419 cases. Nine other regions reported triple digits.
Quezon City continued to account for the majority of cases in the NCR with 639 or 27 percent of the total cases. Twelve of 17 LGUs were among the top twenty cities with most cases.
Three provinces in CALABARZON were among the top three haulers for the day, on a provincial level – Rizal, Laguna and Cavite.
With 8,346 new cases and 9,072 new recoveries, the active cases in the Philippines are at 6.8% (71,472). The additional new cases pushes the total cases up to past 1.05 million total COVID19 (and this is an underestimation of the actual numbers in the country) and within an inch to overtaking 25th rank Romania tomorrow in the global ranking of COVID cases.
The week of April 25-May 1, 2021 saw a 7-day average of 8,182 cases and 97 deaths daily in the country. The total new cases for that week was 57,274 and total new deaths was at 679. If we maintain the same average week on week the coming month, we will most likely pass 1.2M total cases before the end of May.
The daily number of cases and deaths has seen a decline during the last week of April, with cases hovering at an average of 8,000 daily and deaths around 100 a day.
Number of tests done averaged more than 50,000 in the past week, but has not considerably increased in order to bring the positivity rate much lower. Note that the daily positivity rate still hovers way above the 5% cut-off for adequate testing at an average of more than 16%.
But the Philippines is not the only Asian nation that is currently battling surges during the pandemic. Indonesia has been seeing a significant decline since March 2021 and has seemed to plateau at 5,000 for the past month. The Philippines saw its second surge in March but has seen lower cases in the past ten days. Japan is battling its third surge, while Malaysia and Thailand are working at addressing their second surge.
The OCTA Research Monitoring Update as of May 2, 2021 showed the continuous decrease in the reproduction number in NCR with an 18% decline in number of cases compared to the previous week. The positivity rate in the NCR is also down to 17% with an average of 24,450 tests per day. Hospital bed occupancy decreased to 56% while ICU remained at 71%. Note that the percentage for ICU occupancy did not increase because the ICU bed capacity was increased to 1,125. The 804 ICU beds occupied to date is the HIGHEST in the NCR since the start of the pandemic.
The following table shows the LGUs in Mega Manila with the highest decrease in new cases from their peak values. Navotas, Pateros and Pasay led the cities with the largest decline. The attack rate is highest for San Juan and Mandaluyong.
This is a late addendum to the post as the DoH uploaded the excel data file quite late yesterday.
Among the regions, NRC + bubble continued the lead with a total of 5,261 cases or 67.3 percent of the total share in the country yesterday.
Quezon City continued to lead among the cities in the NCR, with Pasig in second. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases in the country. The surprise of the day was Zamboanga City which landed in 9th spot.
With more tests being churned out the past days, the Health Agency reported 16.8% positivity for April 29, 2021. The new cases reported the first day of May 2021 was 9,226 bringing the total cases close to 1.05 million. With 10,809 new recoveries, the total active cases are at 72,248 or 6.9%. Healthcare capacity for intensive care beds are still past the 70% critical level.
With 120 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio based on patient outcomes (recoveries and deaths) is a tad lower at 1.78%.
On a regional level, the NCR contributed to 35% of the total cases for the day. CALABARZON was in second with 18% and Central Luzon in third with 15% of the total cases. Ten regions saw triple digits today, with the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, MIMAROPA and SOCCSKSARGEN seeing higher cases today compared to previous weeks.
In the National Capital Region, Quezon City continued to have the most cases with 20% of the 3234 cases for this region alone. Pasig was in second with 380 cases. Ten other cities in NCR also saw triple digits. Pasay City, which saw an increase in cases at the beginning of the second surge had only 80 new cases today. Twelve of 17 cities in the NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases. NCR owned the top ten places among the top cities with most cases for today.
Among the top 10 provinces, Laguna for the first time grabs the lead with close to 500 new cases, followed by Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal, to round up the top five.
With 8,748 new cases announced by the Health Agency, and less than half that number as recoveries today (4,143) the active cases are up again at 7.1% (73,908). The total number of cases from April 1-30, 2021 officially stood at 281,287 compared to the month of March, which totaled 168,907 cases or almost a 70% increase in number of cases from the previous month. This is disturbing as the NCR plus bubble stays in MECQ, but Metro Manila mayors and the government has allowed some “flexibility” in rules in order to “spur” a fledging economy within the nation’s capital region. Note also that the number of total deaths for the month of March 2021 was only 975, and paled in comparison to the 3,931 deaths for April 2021. An increase of more than 400%.
The tremendous burden on healthcare capacity can still be felt in most hospitals in spite of the Department of Health claiming that only 71 percent of the ICUs in Mega Manila are filled up and a low utilization for isolation bed and ward beds.
Our positivity rate stays above 15% (three times higher than the recommended upper limit of positivity rate as recommended by the World Health Organization), in spite of the more than 54,000 tests last April 28 (reported today).
With the 89 new deaths and fewer recoveries today, the case fatality ratio based on outcomes of COVID19 cases remains unchanged at 1.79%.
Today’s granular data continued to show the NCR outperforming other regions but with slightly lower number of cases at 3,054 or 35% of the total cases today. CALABARZON had slightly more of the daily share than previous days with close to 2000 cases (22%). Central Luzon came in third with 1,124 (13%) cases. These three regions continue to consistently account for 70% of the total cases in the country.
In the National Capital Region, Quezon City continued to lead, albeit at a lower number of 505 new cases (16.5%). Thirteen other LGUs reported triple digits. Fourteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.
Among the top ten provinces with most cases, three provinces in the CALABARZON area continued to lead the number of cases – Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal. In Central Luzon, Pampanga took the lead with 348 cases.
After the lower number of cases Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re back at the 8,000 mark with the Health Agency announcing 8,276 new cases today. The number of recoveries today is lower than the number of new cases, with 6,636 new recoveries announced. This brings the total active cases up close to 70,000 (6.7%). The positivity rate is at 16.9 percent with close to 50,000 tests according to reports last April 27.
ICU beds are up at 72 percent today (from 71% yesterday) and new deaths is at 114, giving a case fatality ratio of 1.79 percent (unchanged from the previous day).
Note that the Philippines recorded 168,907 new cases from March 1-31, 2021. From April 1-29, 2020, the country has passed the 1,000,000 total with 272,539 new cases and will most likely breach the 280,000 mark tomorrow. The death count is also depressing news. From March 1-31, 2021, the country recorded 975 new deaths while 3,842 new deaths have been counted from April 1-29, 2021 alone. Death reports will always be late by a few weeks considering the long drawn battle of some patients with COVID-19 who eventually become severe or critical. One has to remember that patients who may be asymptomatic at the start may end up critical because the full spectrum of the disease evolves over a two weeks period.
With 6,895 new cases and 10,739 recoveries today, the number of active cases is lower at 6.6 percent with 67,769 actives. This brings the total cases to more than 1.02 million.
There were 115 new deaths reported, which brings the case fatality ratio based on outcomes to 1.79% today.
Hospital ICUs are back to the critical level as it surges past 70% again today.
On a regional level, the NCR accounted for a larger chunk of the total. From a previous 38% to a 42% today. Seven regions reported triple digits. Thirty four individuals were tagged with no known regional location.
In the NCR, Quezon City continued its daily lead with more than 30% of the share for Mega Manila. Surprisingly was Las Piñas that came in second with 316 new cases and Taguig in third. Twelve of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the 20 top cities in the Philippines.
On a provincial level, Rizal led the pack with 574 new cases followed by Batangas in second with 304.
As expected for Tuesdays (and Wednesdays) the Health Agency reported 7,204 new cases with more than 10,000 recoveries, brings the total active cases to 7.1% of the total. This brings up the critical and severe cases to 2.4% (or 1,720 requiring intensive care or hospitalization). The DoH reports today, lower than critical level for intensive care beds in the National Capital Region at 69% (1% below the critical level). Positivity rate is stable at an average of 15-17 percent the past days.
There were 63 new deaths, bringing the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) to 1.8%.
The NCR had less than 3,000 new cases for today, with CALABARZON in second with 1,312 cases and Central Luzon login in less than 1,000. Seven other regions reported triple digits. There were 34 cases with no known location based on region.
In the National Capital Region where 40% of the total cases in the Philippines are found, Quezon City continued to lead, accounting for more than 30% of the cases in Mega Manila. Nine LGUs reported more than 100 cases, while the rest had only double digits. With the very erratic number of cases from most LGUs, it would be premature to claim that the numbers are “down” and that easing quarantine would be a prudent decision after April 30.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 cities with most cases.
On a provincial level, Cavite continued the lead with 454 new cases, followed by Bulacan and Rizal. Surprisingly, Negros Occidental is up in fourth spot, outpacing Laguna and Batangas.
Today marks a grim and yet painful milestone in the pandemic as the Philippines passes the 1,000,000 total number of cases for COVID-19. This puts us in 26th rank globally together with 25 other countries that have crossed the million cases marker. We are also the second country in Asia (Indonesia being the first) to have more than a million cases.
The Health Agency reports 8,929 new cases today pushing the total cases to 1,006,428. With 11,333 new recoveries, the active cases are a tad lower at 7.4% (less than 75,000) with 70 new deaths reported. This brings down the case fatality ratio to 1.8%. However, with 16.7 % positivity rate with testing ramped up, will we expect fewer cases tomorrow?
We need to work harder at bringing the numbers lower and extending the MECQ will, at this time, be the most prudent recommendation so that we do not overtake other nations who are faring better than us during this outbreak. The government should also work doubly harder at rolling out vaccines quickly and safely during these tumultuous times.
The NCR contributed to 38% of the cases for today, followed by CALABARZON with 19% and Central Luzon at 13%. Seven regions continued to report triple digits.
In Mega Manila, Quezon City continued to lead with 18% of the cases followed by Taguig owning 17%, Pasig accounting for 9.9%, Caloocan for 9.8% and Manila with 9.5% of the total cases. Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.
On a provincial level, it was Cavite that continued to lead, followed by Bulacan, Rizal and Isabela with more than 400 new cases apiece (but less than 500).
In spite of the awful data we’ve had in the last month, there is a silver lining to the lockdowns. Which makes this weekend end on a more hopeful note.
As the Health Agency reported 8,162 new cases, 109 new deaths and an astounding 20,509 new recoveries, this brings the total cases in the Philippines within a day close to the one million mark. There is no stopping the country in being the 26th nation with more than 1,000,000 cases (~1% of the population) tomorrow.
The case fatality ratio based on patients with outcomes (recovery or death) is now lower at 1.82 percent with the active cases lower at 7.7 percent (77,075 cases).
The weekend summary from April 19-25, 2021 showed 71,505 new cases, 977 new deaths and 124,965 new recoveries. This weekend (including today) had the most number of recoveries in a single week as reported by the Department of Health.
The number of cases weighed heavily on the testing capacity of the nation. While there were days where we tested more than 50,000 cases, most of the days were below that (in spite of the more than 230 testing centers in the country). The positivity rate averaged a high 20 percent for the week that was. In short, 1 in every 5 individuals tested would end up continuing to test positive.
There is a slight decline in the total number of new daily cases with a 7-day average of 9,049/day and new deaths at 124/day. With the OCTA Monitoring Update report below (as of April 25, 2021), note that the reproduction number for the country stands at 1.0 while in the NCR, the epicenter of the outbreak in the country is at 0.93. I will reiterate – the Rt SHOULD STAY BELOW 0.8 FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS, WITH NO DAY THAT SHOULD EXCEED 1.0.
It is important to note that other nations are also dealing with the global surge in cases. India, Thailand, Japan and Cambodia are resorting to some form of lockdown or quarantine in order to bring their sudden surge of cases to a standstill. Together with the Philippines, these neighboring countries are seeing surges in cases as well.
The NCR alone contributes to more than 40 percent of the total cases in the country in a single day. The objective will always be to make sure that this region, home to almost 15 million Filipinos that is the epicenter of both the outbreak in the pandemic and commerce, must continue to suppress its daily new cases CONSISTENTLY.
The average number of new COVID-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 3,841 over the past week, with a one week growth rate of -20%. The current average is also 30% lower than the average of 5,552 during the peak of the surge three weeks ago. The moving average (blue) and trend lines (red) show a clear downward trajectory for new COVID-19 cases in the NCR. The positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 19% from a average of 26.120 tests per day. Three weeks go, the positivity rate was as high as 25%. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR decreased to 61% while ICU bed occupancy also decreased to 71%.
Philippine COVID-19 Update, OCTA Monitoring Report, April 25, 2021
Among the top twenty LGUs with the most cases for the week April 18-24, 2021, all of the LGUs in Mega Manila are seeing a negative growth rate (or decline in cases). Hospital bed occupancy and ICU occupancy are significantly correlated with that decline. Only 5 of the LGUs in NCR have 100 percent capacity. As a matter of fact, Caloocan, Las Piñas, Valenzuela are below critical level for intensive care.
Outside of the “NCR plus bubble” is Pampanga. And Angeles City had a significant jump (+31%) in new COVID-19 cases daily. Pampanga province as a whole also had higher cases over the past week, up by 6% compared to the previous week. Batangas also had an increase of 24% from the previous week.
Relative Joy 