At first you’d get surprised at the sudden leap in numbers as the Health Agency reports 2,646 new cases today. The increase in numbers today most likely included backlogs form the past week and days.

For the first time, the Philippines records a positivity rate less than 5% (4.3%) with 35,772 tests done on November 8, 2021.

With more recoveries than cases, the active cases now dip below 30,000. However, one-third of the remaining active cases are moderate to critical as the mild and asymptomatic are at 67.8%. That means almost 10,000 of the active cases are moderate to critical.

Additional 99 deaths were recorded today.

As expected, the numbers will always be lower on Tuesdays. Today, the Health Agency reports 1,409 new cases from reports last November 7 where more than 30,000 tests yielded 5.4% positivity rate. This also brings down the 7-day average to less than 2,000 cases/day.

The slowing down of the cases is reflected also in the lower active cases which is not at a tad above 30,000.

Another 46 deaths was reported today.

NCR had a very bad day today. With only 1,409 new cases in the country, NCR contributed to 22% of the total cases with 307 cases. Four other regions reported triple digits but had a little more than 100 cases only.

On a provincial level, all provinces continued to report double digits but at low numbers.

It was Quezon City that continued to report triple digits with 118 new cases or almost 40% of the cases in NCR alone. Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 list with the least number of cases in the top 20 at 13 for today. Which means that if your LGU saw 13 cases, that LGU would be among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases.

It is a good start for the week considering that more than 43,000 tests were done last November 6 with a positivity of 5.2%.

The Health Agency announces 2,087 new cases with a decrease in active cases to a little more than 32,000.

The ICU utilization rate, however, is up in the National Capital Region from a previous of 37% to 40% currently as more unvaccinated individuals continue to fill the critical care facilities. Notice that as the active cases decline, there are less mild and asymptomatic individuals (70%). The remaining 30% of the 32,077 cases are either moderate, severe or critical. That’s almost 10,000 people in this category.

There were 91 new deaths added today.

NCR owned almost 19% of the total cases today with 388 recorded. Cagayan Valley came in second with 232 cases, while six regions reported more than 100 cases but less than 200.

While Negros Oriental continued to lead on a provincial level, the cases are lower today with ALL provinces in the top 10 reporting only double digits.

Quezon City reported 90 cases, accounting for 23% of the total cases in NCR. Again, none of the LGUs reported triple digit cases. All other LGUs, except for Quezon City, reported less than 50 cases. Eight of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 list. The lowest number of cases among LGUs was 16 for today (much lower than the 19 yesterday). Which meant that if your LGU had 16 cases, it would be included in the top 20 list.

The weekend ends with 2,605 new cases announced by the Health Agency based on 48.450 tests done last November 5 with a 5.2% positivity rate. This puts us a few cases lower than the previous day. With slightly more recoveries than cases, the active cases are down to a little more than 33,000.

There were 191 new deaths announced today, pushing the 7-day average deaths to still greater than 200/day and the case fatality rate for outcomes at 1.59%.

The NCR logged 409 new cases today, accounting for 15.7% of the total cases in the country. Three regions reported more than 200 but less than 300 cases. They are: Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, and CAR.

Isabela had the highest cases on a provincial level. Three other provinces reported triple digits – Negros Oriental, Davao del Sur, and Negros Occidental.

Zamboanga City took back the lead from Quezon City and was the only LGU that registered triple digits with 106 cases today. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 LGUs with most cases. The fewest cases in the top 20 list was 18 cases. This meant that if your LGU had 18 or more cases, your city/municipality would be part of the top 20. Six LGUs in Northern Luzon were in the top 20 list.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It’s been awhile since we’ve seen number of cases hit the 1,500 mark. Of course, majority of the cases are still from the National Capital Region. And yes, the positivity rate is still moderately high considering that we’re still not testing enough. But the week that ended relatively well and while the number of deaths average more than 200/day, the new cases dipped to less than 2,500 for the 7-days average as of November 6, 2021. There’s still more work to be done at bringing the cases even lower to triple digits, but the trend shows that we can.

It is, without a doubt, impossible to achieve ZERO COVID-19. But we can bring the cases as low as possible. In select Asian countries, Singapore took the weekly lead with 560 cases/M (per capita). The Philippines fell lowest among these select Asian nations to 34 cases/M population. Only Indonesia and Japan had single digit. It was a different story for deaths, however. Based again on a per capita (size of the population), Singapore led with 2.3 deaths/M, while the Philippines came in second with 1.9 deaths/M. While other countries like Indonesia may have numerically more deaths, this is not the case if you based it on the population size of the country. And the excess deaths have not even been factored in.

The infographic below shows the over-all status of the Philippines in the Delta surge. Cases have dropped and while testing has declined, so has positivity test rate. Even the reproduction rate is at an all time low at 0.63 (+/- 0.05).

Using the same parameters above in the same select Asian nations, the graph below shows how we stand compared to these countries.

Reproduction rate is highest now in South Korea as its R hits 1.24 and is seeing a rise in cases, followed by Vietnam and Singapore. The Philippines has the lowest R in the ASEAN community while it plays second fiddle to Japan, that is enjoying triple digits with R<0.5 (0.37). If the Philippines an keep an R<0.5 for 4 straight weeks, we will see numbers falls significantly. The problem is that in order to achieve this, two things must happen: (1) we must vaccinate a greater majority of the ADULT population (especially the working class), and (2) stay in Alert Level 3 even if we can be considered low risk in various indicators (ADAR, Rt, ICU utilization, and positivity tests). With the last quarter of the year at hand, it would be painful to remain at a strict lockdown because the economy will suffer. If we can get people to just even do number (1), then the metrics will turn in favor of opening the economy with less reservations.

The Health Agency reports 300 more cases today than the previous day with 2,656 new cases today, enough to break the 2.8M mark. With more than 5000 recoveries, the active cases drop to less than 35,000.

Close to 50,000 tests were done last November 4, with a positivity rate at 5.6%, lower than the previous days.

There are 154 new deaths announced today, bringing the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.59%.

While NCR continued to lead among regions with 454 (17%) new cases today, it was Cagayan Valley who saw an increase as the delayed reports from that region came in today. Central Luzon, Central Visayas and CALABARZON reported more than 200 cases.

On a provincial level, Negros Oriental led the pack, with 4 provinces in Northern Luzon in the top 10. The are: Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet and Pangasinan.

At the level of the LGU, Quezon City was the only city or municipality that reported triple digits. As a matter of fact, its 116 cases accounted for 26% of the cases in the National Capital Region – the biggest contributor to the share of cases in Mega Manila. Nine of 17 LGUs in the top 20 list are from NCR. The fewest cases on an LGU level was 19 today. Which means that if your city or municipality reports more than 19 cases, you’re most likely to be in the top 20 list. In the top ten LGUs, 4 were from NCR while 6 were from LGUs outside of NCR. Five LGUs in the top 20 are from Northern Luzon.

The 7-day average in the Philippines has dropped to 2,816, its lowest since March 2021. The National Capital Region also sees a decline in the 7-day average to less than 500 cases/day.

Backlog data gradually build up and get reported during the weekends.

The Health Agency reports 2,376 new cases today, up by around 500 cases from yesterday.

Tests done last November 3 was more than 44,000 with a 6.5% positivity. Total active cases remain at around 37,000.

Additional 260 deaths are added today with deaths now exceeding the 44,000 mark.

NCR accounted for almost 20% of today’s cases with 378 new cases. Central Visayas came in second, followed by CALABARZON with 209 and 201 cases, respectively.

Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental and Zamboanga del Sur were the top three provinces with most cases and together with Cagayan reported triple digits.

On an LGU level, 19 cases in an LGU meant that they would be in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day. This is why 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 list. In the top 10, however, 7 of the 10 in this group were from LGUs outside of NCR. Zamboanga City took the overall lead among LGUs with most cases. The rest in the top 10 are: Davao City, Dumaguete City, Pudtol (Apayao), Bacolod City, Puerto Princesa City, and Baguio City.

It was obviously going to be higher today, as more tests were done on November 2. The positivity rate was at 6.6%, which is still quite a decent number considering that testing has been lower particularly in areas outside of NCR plus eight (see the data below).

The Health Agency announces 1,766 new cases today and with more recoveries than cases, the number of active cases in the country are a little more than 37K.

An additional 239 deaths are reported today.

We should hit the 2.8M mark on or before Sunday.

The NCR accounted for almost 20% of the total cases today, with other regions seeing lower numbers. Cagayan Valley remained in second but dropping proportionally to the over-all cases in the country.

It was a hodgepodge of distribution for the various provinces in the country, with Cagayan, Isabela and Benguet in the top five.

Among cities/municipalities, Quezon City took back the lead with 77 cases or 22% of the total cases for the National Capital Region. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases. However, due to the lower number of cases, it is a give that more LGUs in NCR would make it to the list as the fewest cases in the top 20 is now at 18.

Among the top 10 LGUs, however, only 2 were from NCR. The rest were from cities/municipalities outside of Mega Manila. The include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Santa Ana (Cagayan), Bacolod City, Pudtol (Apayao), Antipolo (Rizal), Lubang (Mindoro Occidental), and Davao City.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Three and a half months into the latest surge and this is where we stand in the National Capital Region. Our reproduction number is at < 0.5 (something we have never achieved at any time in the pandemic except now), active cases down to 7,422 (for a population of almost 14M occupying 660 square kilometers of land), and a positivity rate at 4%. While there are still quite a number of ICU beds occupied, severely ill patients take quite awhile to recuperate, but this should free up soon.

Hopefully we can even do better in the next 4 weeks as we run up to the Christmas holidays.

As of November 2, all the LGUs are now considered low risk, with Cebu City achieving excellent work at sustaining their very low risk category as cases there continue to decrease further and has the lowest positivity tests among the nine highest risk LGUs at 2%. Their ICU and health care utilization is also less than 20%.

[Both infographics are from Prof. Guido David, PhD, Fellow, OCTA Research]

It’s been awhile that we’ve even touched cases this low.

Our November and December 2020 numbers were between 1,500-2,500 cases. We touched triple digits for a few days in the end of December 2020 because of the holidays (fewer tests done).

The Health Agency reports 1,591 new cases today, and with more recoveries than cases, the active cases now drop to a little more than 38,000.

There were a little below 30,000 tests done last November 1, a holiday, with 5.6% positivity (which was even lower than the previous days).

We will know the actual data this weekend as the long weekend is over.

Sadly, there are an additional 186 new deaths. Bringing the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.57%.

NCR had 237 cases today or 14.9% of the total cases in the country, the lowest share in a day for Mega Manila. Ilocos Norte surprising came in second with CALABARZON in third. Only 7 regions reported triple digits.

Several provinces in Northern Luzon continued to contribute to the most cases on a provincial level. This was topped by Pangasinan. Others included are: Cagayan, La Union. Isabela, Ifugao, and Benguet.

There is a shift in LGUs with most cases for today. Zamboanga City snatched the top spot from Quezon City, 7 of 17 LGUs from NCR were in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The lowest number of cases in the top 20 was 12. Which means that as the cases continue to drop, if an LGU had only 12 cases for the day, they’d be in the top 20.

It’s been awhile that we’ve seen the two thousand mark and today is a good day with the number of cases.

The last time we touched this low mark was March 4 where the Philippines had 2,444 cases. With more recoveries than cases, the number of active cases are down to a little more than 40K.

Almost 30,000 tests were done on October 31, a Sunday. The positivity rate is at 6.8%. We most likely will have similar numbers tomorrow as November 1 was a holiday and the number of tests may not have been significant as well.

Total deaths added today is 128.

While NCR reported 454 cases today. As mentioned before, as the cases in the other regions begin to decline, NCR will now account for a greater proportion of the cases (unless it dramatically makes a miraculous turn around). Today, it contributed to almost 20% of the total, up from 18% the previous day.

Quezon City made the splash accounting for 48% of the total cases in NCR alone. It was also the only LGU that reported triple digits. It has more cases than the combined provinces of Benguet and Negros Occidental.

With that said, 6 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20. Which means that 14 LGUs outside of the NCR are in today’s top list. Majority of them are from Northern Luzon.

The Philippines continued to report lower cases today with positivity rate of 7.5%. Only 41,712 tests were done last October 30, and would expect even fewer tests for yesterday October 31 and today November 1 because they are holidays in the country.

With more recoveries than cases announced, the active cases now dips lower to around 43,000.

There are 104 new deaths announced today.

NCR reported 537 new cases or 17.2% of the total cases in the country today. Two regions in Northern Luzon continue to trail NCR – Cagayan Valley and CAR. Notice that there are more regions now seeing double digit cases as provinces outside of NCR are slowing down in cases as well. Although this may be correlated also with fewer testing done.

Among provinces, 5 of 10 provinces in the top 10 list were from Northern Luzon. This was led by Isabela, followed by Cagayan, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya and Ifugao.

On a city/municipality level, Quezon City kept the lead. As a matter of fact, Quezon City alone accounted for almost 30% of the total cases in NCR. It was also the only LGU in the country that continuously reports triple digit cases. Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty. The striking data today showed that 7 LGUs in Northern Luzon were among the top 20.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

This week is a new beginning. Will we see better data for the month of November in the NCR? We need to sustain the momentum. That means, and I’ve been saying this already, is to keep the R at <0.5. Keeping above this just does not cut it. Because it is the major economic hub and the epicenter for cases in the country due to its density (highest number of people by region in terms of land area), my personal opinion is that the only way it should be allowed to move to a lower alert level from the current level 3 is if it keeps R <0.5 for 2 consecutive weeks or account for only 10% of the total cases in the country for 2 consecutive weeks.

Navotas is the only LGU that has markedly improved in terms of cases, ADAR and R. Notice that it is the only LGU of 17 LGUs in NCR that is at very low risk with 1.48 cases/100,000 population and a R of 0.27.

While the positivity rate of NCR in general is at 5%, the growth rate is up for some cities (unlike the previous week where all were on the decline). Those LGUs with positive growth rates include: Malabon, Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Pateros, Makati, Mandaluyong and San Juan.

Both Mandaluyong and San Juan have high risk for their ADAR, while ICU utilization is at moderate risk for Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Makati and San Juan.