The Health Agency announces 134 new cases and 2 added deaths today. The NCR continued to own majority of cases with 53 recorded.
Only one LGU in the NCR had double digits – the City of Manila with 14 cases. All other LGUs had single digit numbers with three LGUs reporting zero covid. The latter were: Marikina, Malabon and Pateros.
Outside NCR, only one province reported double digit – Bulacan with 10 cases. Majority of the provinces and HUCs are now reporting zero cases or single digit number.
The Health Agency releases the week of April 25-May 1, 2022 summary report. While we had only 1399 new cases, the 7-day average cases stayed at 200 (the week before was 209) or a 5% drop in total cases for the week of April 25-May 1 versus April 18-24. Of the 215 deaths reported the past 7 days, only 40 of them were recent. The 175 were backlog cases. Incidentally, there were more deaths this week (215) than last week (213).
The over-all healthcare utilization is slightly down this week at 16.3% (vs 16.9% last week) for non ICU beds and at 16.1% (vs 16.9% last week) for ICU bed utilization. However, the number of severe and critical admissions did not significantly change (726 last week vs. 723 this week).
Vaccination coverage of eligible population as fully vaccinated is up from 74.98% to 75.45% this week. However, the number of vaccinees this week was an added 425,000+ people. A2 coverage is a tad up at 76.48% this week compared to 76.35% last week. There were less individuals who took advantage of a booster or additional dose this week (292,000+) compared to last week (297,000+).
Again, there were no added severe or critical cases this week. This should be interpreted with caution as this meant that these were patients who presented as critical/severe at the time of swabbing.
The Health Agency announces 188 new cases and 3 deaths today. NCR owned 75 or 40% of today’s cases. Only two LGUs reported double digits in NCR – Caloocan City 12 and Manila 11. The rest reported single digits with Marikina, Malabon and Pateros reporting zero covid.
Outside of NCR, two provinces reported double digits. Cavite 12 and Iloilo 15 (13 provinces, 2 city).
The Health Agency reports 253 new cases and 56 deaths for today. NCR had 96 cases today.
The full report on the rising effective reproduction numbers for the country below. Four LGUs report double digits. They were: Makati 13, Manila 12, Pasay and Quezon City 11, apiece. Other LGUs in NCR report single digit with one reporting zero covid – Pateros.
Provinces/HUCs that had double digit cases were: Cavite 15, and Puerto Princesa City 17.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
While the Philippines continued to report lower cases this week compared the previous, the decline in cases is actually slower now. Notice that the effective reproduction number is now at 0.90 (+/- 0.05). Meaning? We have reached a trough. The average daily cases will fluctuate between 150-250. And that’s really not good news. While the over-all healthcare system is not currently overwhelmed, the daily events on campaign and election pose a very high risk for a possible ‘surge’ in cases before the end of May. If that Rt breaches 1.0, we should be concerned.
For now, the 7-day average for the PH is at 187 new daily cases (1.68 per 1M population). A tad down for last week’s 210.
The fluctuation in deaths due to backlogs is frustrating. The Health Agency needs to clean up all data on mortalities immediately, while the cases are currently low so that real-time mortality rates can be correlated with the situation of the pandemic in the country and how these cases contribute to over-all mortality.
Comparing our data with other parts of East Asia, notice that the reproduction rate is highest is two Chinese nations – Taiwan and China. While all other countries are seeing a lower Rt, it is Indonesia, Brunei and Vietnam that have made significant strides in lowering the numbers. With this, Indonesia’s cases are actually lower per capita than the Philippines.
South Korea sees a significant drop in their cases, while Taiwan and China see rising cases in their territories. On a per capita (number of cases/million population) basis, it is Taiwan that has moved up to third rank in this part of the region.
The Health Agency reports 240 cases today, with 36 added deaths. The surprise? NCR owned more than half of the daily cases.
While still considered low by other standards, the dropping of several minimum health standards and the relatively low first boosters (32%) of the NCR shows the vulnerability of a dense region for resurgence of cases anytime.
Mega Manila posted 126 new cases today, with five LGUs reporting double digits. These were: City of Manila 25, Pasay City 15, Parañaque 13, Makati 12, and Pasig 10. Other LGUs reported single digit with 2 LGUs reporting zero covid. The latter were, Malabon and Pateros.
Outside of NCR, only the province of Cavite posted double digit numbers with 13 cases today.
The Health Agency announces 184 new cases with 38 added deaths today. Of the 184 cases, 37% belonged to the epicenter – NCR. The 7-day average positivity rate remains at 1.3%.
In the NCR, only one LGU had double digits, with 22 cases. This belonged to Quezon City, which accounted for almost 1/3 of the cases in Mega Manila alone. All other LGUs continued to report single digits, with five LGUs in NCR having zero covid. They were: Muntinlupa, Marikina, Navotas, San Juan, and Pateros.
Outside of NCR, the province of Cavite had 10 cases and was the only province with double digit count.
The Health Agency announces 193 new cases and 52 added deaths for today. More than 40% of today’s cases are from the epicenter – Mega Manila – with 78 cases.
Only three LGUs in the NCR report double digits. They are: Manila 13, and Quezon City and Parañaque with 10 apiece. All the other LGUs reported single digits with three LGUs – Malabon, San Juan and Pateros – having zero covid today.
Cebu had 10 cases today – 8 in the province and 2 in Cebu City.
The Health Agency announces 195 cases today with 30 added deaths. While the cases may not seem high, one should interpret the data with caution as some areas are seeing increasing cases.
In NCR, Quezon City had 42 cases. This meant that 22% of the country’s total cases today was from QC alone. All other LGUs in NCR had single digit numbers, with two LGUs reporting zero covid. The latter were: San Juan and Pateros.
Only one province outside of NCR had double digits today – Cavite with 10 cases.
The Health Agency announced 123 new cases and 1 added death today. The low Tuesday does not reflect the actual number of cases the Philippines has, as the Department of Health’s data lags behind that of the local government units (LGUs). Only 38 cases were from the National Capital Region today.
None of the LGUs in NCR reported double digits today (strangely low…like a calm before the storm). The City of Manila had the most cases at 7, while Caloocan City and Pasay City were second with 6 each. Four LGUs reported zero COVID in Mega Manila today. They were: Valenzuela, Malabon, San Juan and Pateros.
Outside of NCR, there were also low cases in the provinces as all provinces and HUCs (highly urbanized cities) reported single digit numbers.
Again, this data should be taken with caution because this is data from a Sunday (low day for testing) and that many people with mild symptoms do not test. Even if they do, majority do antigen testing, which is not counted in the daily national tally for COVID19.
Please do not become complacent of the situation. While the variants of omicron may be mild, the vulnerable and those who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated are at higher risk for developing severe disease.
Note that the percentage of positives are up today (at around 1.4%) compared to yesterday’s 1.1%. This means that we will most likely see a bump up in the numbers in the subsequent days.
The Health Agency’s weekly summary showed 1465 new cases the week of April 18-24, 2022 or an average of 209 cases a day. This was a decline of 12% of cases from the previous week.
Now here’s the part we missed. Healthcare utilization for non ICU beds decreased from 4164 out of 24,645 bed the week of April 11-17 to 4112 out of 24,309 beds the week of April 18-24. Notice that there was no movement in over-all utilization for non ICU beds at 16.9%.
On the other hand, ICU bed utilization on April 11-17 was 450 out of 2,842 ICU beds but up at 479 out of 2,841 ICU beds for the week of April 18-24. This meant that ICU bed utilization was up from 15.8% to 16.9%. While still considered very low risk (<20%), notice that the severe and critical admissions are up from 664 the week of April 11-17 to 726 the week of April 18-24. According the Health Agency, there was only ONE severe and critical case from April 11 – 17. And based on today’s bulletin, there were ZERO severe and critical cases from April 18-24. So what accounts for the jump in severe and critical admissions AND the jump in ICU bed utilization?
Total target population fully vaccinated is slightly up from 74.28% to 74.98% as a little more than 880,000 are added to the fully vaccinated list. A2 coverage (senior citizens) is also up from 76.14% to 76.35% this week. Individuals who had ONE additional booster was almost 300,000 the week of April 16-22 or almost twice that of the previous week.
There were more deaths the week of April 18-24 as 213 deaths were added to the list, compared to the week of April 11-17 where 200 deaths were announced.
The Health Agency announces 213 new cases and 12 added deaths today. The NCR led the haul with more than 46% of today’s cases. The week starts off with a positivity rate of 1.1% or a paltry 151 positive from 13,734 individuals tested yesterday.
Three LGUs in NCR had double digits – Makati (17), Manila (16) and Quezon City (13). While the rest had single digits, two LGUs reported zero covid – Pateros and Marikina.
Outside NCR, only one province reported double digits – Cavite with 13.
The Health Agency announces 205 new cases with 3 added deaths today. NCR took the haul with more than 46% of the total cases.
Three LGUs in NCR reported double digits with Pasay City reporting 20 cases, Quezon City 15 and Manila 13. Other LGUs in Mega Manila had single digit numbers with 2 LGUs having zero covid – Pateros and Navotas.
Outside of NCR, the provinces of Cavite (14) and Rizal (12) were the only provinces with double digit cases today.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
The Philippines continues to see a slight decline in cases, although the decrease has considerably slowed down. This week ends with an average of 210 cases daily or around 1.89 cases per million (per capita). The reader is cautioned to interpret this data carefully because (1) many do not use RT-PCR for testing and (2) the health agency does not include RAT (rapid antigen test) in the daily count.
A good indicator though is the healthcare utilization rate which is at a very low risk status. Positivity rate also low at 1.4% (based on the Department of Health COVID19 tracker).
The death rates are also down, although the past several days, we’ve had more than 60 deaths daily (most likely due to backlog reports). At the rate the health agency reports deaths, it’s difficult to make heads or tails on correlating the deaths with the number of daily (or even weekly) cases in the pandemic.
All East Asian nations are seeing a lowering of cases, except for Taiwan and China.
Based on number of cases, South Korea continues to lead the region, however, with a significant drop in the daily cases reported. Japan continued to report more than 40,000 daily cases and seems to be unable to shake off the numbers. China is now in third spot as Vietnam clears the bar and drops to an average of 20,000 daily cases.
In terms of number of cases per capita, South Korea remains on top with 1720 cases per million people, while Singapore is in second with 572 per million. Brunei, which is seeing a daily average of 177 cases per day based on the 7 day average) is up in third with 400 cases per million population. The Philippines remains at the lowest rung with 1.89 cases per million population.
Effective reproduction rate shows that Taiwan’s Rt is up at 1.77. This means that Taiwan has not yet peaked and will most likely see more cases in the coming weeks. This is the same story as China whose Rt is at 1.20 (as of April 19, 2022). With the recent upswing of cases in Beijing, the COVID19 outbreak in China may be quite challenging to control. The Rt of the Philippine is at 0.78 (+/- 0.05), indicating that we still have the potential to bring down the cases but the decline will significantly slow down over the new weeks. Indonesia’s Rt is at 0.40, indicating a continued significant decrease in cases in the upcoming week as the Omicron wave comes to an end as well.
Relative Joy 