It seems that the weekend is on track for seeing cases between 5-6K, as estimated, where the 7-day average by end of the month of October should have dropped to around 5,000.

With 5,807 new cases announced by the Health Agency today, the Philippines has a 7-day average of around 5,700/day. Total tests done on October 21 was 58,834 with a positivity rate of 10.3%. ICU utilization in the NCR remains at less than 50%, but depending on the LGU, this will vary and remains highest in Muntinlupa City.

Total deaths announced today was 65.

While the country enjoyed a tad bit lower cases today, it was the NCR that pulled in a surprise with 21% or more than 1/5 of the total share of today’s total. CALABARZON came in second with half the total of NCR’s numbers. The other regions saw a slight drop in cases.

Isabela Province topped the provincial level, but two other provinces in the north of Luzon – Pangasinan and Cagayan – were in the top ten.

The telling story are the cases in the LGU level where 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 list. When most of the LGUs in NCR are part of the top twenty, on a day when the over-all total cases are slightly lower, you know that NCR will account for a higher share than the rest. Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Davao City and Tuguegarao were among the top 10.

As the day drew to a close for the week, the Health Agency reports 5,823 new cases today.

There were 58,273 tests done on October 20 with a positivity rate of 11.6%.

It announced 283 new deaths today.

ICU utilization rate in NCR is now below 50% with hospitalization rates averaging 40%.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

To show how much improved the situation is in the National Capital Region (Mega Manila), today’s monitoring report shows the significant decline in the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases. The positivity rate of the national capital is down at 8% versus the national average of 10-12%. Utilizing the indicators of incidence rate, Rt (infection), Health care and ICU utilization rate, there has been a 43% decline of cases since the past week. ADAR is also down to moderate at 7.40/100,000 population, while the R is at a low of 0.46 (below 0.5). We will need to sustain this reproduction number and keep it below 0.5 for the whole of October to the end of November in order to see an unprecedented low of cases in the capital. Only Caloocan, City of Manila, and Mandaluyong have Rt > 0.5 for now, but this should be manageable in the next few weeks. It is also important that ALL the LGUs do not digress from the current trend. If one LGU digresses from the current declining cases, this will affect all the other LGUs in the next few weeks. ICU utilization is highest in Muntinlupa and Makati, while moderate in Quezon City.

The NCR saw a four digit record today with 1,031 new cases, but this was expected because the region accounts for around 17-22% of the total daily cases. Except for Eastern Visayas and BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits, with Cagayan Valley still reporting a high of 849 cases.

On a provincial level, three provinces in Cagayan Valley are among the top ten provinces with most cases for the day. They are: Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela and Cagayan. Another province in North Luzon joined the top ten – La Union.

Among cities and municipalities, 8 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty most cases for today. It was Quezon City and Parañaque City that led the haul. However, it is disturbing that many municipalities were in the top twenty list, mostly from Northern Luzon. Places like Solano, San Manuel, Tadian, Flora, and Bagabag should be monitored closely.

The Health Agency reports 4,806 new cases today. But that’s not surprising (considering were were coming from 3,600 plus cases on the low Wednesday). With more than 52,000 tests and a positivity rate of 10.9% for October 19, 2021, the lower positivity rate is encouraging. However, we really need to be testing more cases (and contact trace) in order to achieve a positivity rate below 5%. On a provincial level, some provinces like Cebu and Cavite have positivity rates at 6%, lower than the national average.

The deaths, however, climbed higher today with the system reporting 260 new deaths, pushing the total deaths past the 41,000 mark.

Hospital utilization and ICU utilization rates are down in the NCR in general.

Cagayan Valley topped the regions for the first time since the start of this surge and the pandemic as a whole with almost 1,000 cases for today. This was followed by NCR with 842 cases and accounting for 17.5% of the total cases in the country. While several regions saw lower cases today, regions in Northern Luzon continued to report higher cases in general (although is seeing a general decrease in percentage per region).

On a provincial level, Isabela topped today’s count. In the top ten provinces with most cases were: Benguet, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Pangasinan. All provinces in the north.

On a city/municipality level, Quezon City took back the lead and NCR had 6 of 17 LGUs in the top 20 list. Six LGUs in Isabela alone made it to the list – Ramon, City of Cauayan, Roxas, Jones, Aurora and City of Santiago.

It was excellent news today as the Health Agency reported lower cases since July 13, 2021 when there were 3,595 cases for the day. It’s actually one of the lowest numbers we’ve had since the March/April surge and the July/August surge. The lowest cases for the March/April surge was seen on May 23 with 3,004 cases. The following day, we never looked back at cases lower than this number. Again.

Today, the Department of Health reports 3,656 new cases with 42,296 tests done last October 18 for a positivity rate of 11.6%. Today’s report have some backlogs which will come in, in the subsequent days.

But we will take this as good news. Notice how even the ICU utilization is less than 60% nationally.

Only 5 deaths were reported today.

The current risk levels used by OCTA Research integrates four parameters: Incidence rate (ADAR), Reproduction number (Rt), Health care and ICU utilization rates, and Positivity for tests. As indicated in the previous blogs, these have been graded based on international standards for critical, high, moderate and low risk values.

The risk levels in NCR plus eight (Cebu City, Davao City, Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga and Rizal) are shown in the table below. Incidence rate is < 10 in all these areas, which puts them all at low risk. Reproduction number is also down to 0.52 in NCR, and is highest in Rizal (among the 9 high risk areas) at 0.55. ICU utilization rate is still >60% for Davao City, Batangas and Rizal, while the positivity rate is < 10% for Cebu City, Cavite and NCR.

NCR accounted for a higher share (17.5%) of today’s total COVID-19 count (compared to previous days <17%). The shift in ranks saw Central Luzon in second, while CALABARZON moves down to fourth. Cagayan Valley, Zamboanga Peninsula and CAR, while seeing relatively lower cases still cornered higher proportions of the total cases in the country today.

Zamboanga del Sur continued to top the provinces, with Cagayan, Isabela and Benguet in 2nd – 4th ranks.

For the third straight day, Zamboanga City earned the distinction to have been the only city that has overtaken Quezon City for consecutive days. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases.

Baguio City, Bacolod City, Davao City, and Tuguegarao were the other LGUs that were in the top 10 list.

As mentioned in the previous days, after a round of cases in the 7K level, we should be tracking between 5-6K this week.

And because today is a Tuesday, we expect lower numbers.

The Health Agency announced 4,496 new cases with a low 35,766 tests done on October 17 but equally low positivity rate of 12.4%.

The active cases and ICU utilization is also trending lower today.

The bad news is that the new deaths announced is at 211.

The wonderful surprise of the day is NCR, which in the longest time had to see triple digits, recorded 741 new cases today. That’s a low of 16.4% (range was 17.5%-22.5% in the previous weeks). Nevertheless, it was still the regions in Northern Luzon that continued to see high cases, as well as the Zamboanga Peninsula.

Negros Oriental led the provinces on a provincial level, while 4 provinces in Northern Luzon were among the top ten provinces with most cases – Benguet, Cagayan, Isabela and Pangasinan.

For the second straight day, Zamboanga City led among cities/municipalities with most cases today. In spite of the lower cases in NCR, 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR made it to the top twenty list. This time, however, six of the top 10 LGUs were all outside of Mega Manila. Aside from top leader Zamboanga City, the others were: Baguio City, Tagum (Davao del Norte), Iloilo City, Saguday (Quirino Province), and Bacolod City.

It’s the second day that the cases are below the 7K mark. But that’s not the good news. The good news is that with the current numbers being reported, we may not see five digit cases for awhile (fingers crossed), unless some other odd variant pops up from nowhere.

The Health Agency today reports 6,943 new cases, but a slightly higher positivity rate of 13.3% based on 54,150 tests done last October 16. With more recoveries than cases, the active cases now drop to 68,832.

There ware 86 new deaths reported today.

The NCR reported a tad more cases today than yesterday with 1,165 (16.8%) of the total. While many regions are seeing lower cases, there are a few that are seeing noticeable spikes, especially Zamboanga Peninsula.

The regional data is reflected in the provincial data where one case see that the cases are mostly seen in Zamboanga del Sur, which made it to the top spot today.

Again on the LGU level, Zamboanga City topped the cities/municipalities with most cases. Eight of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 list. Which means that the majority of the LGUs in the top 20 are now from outside Mega Manila.

Today saw a little less than 7K cases with the Health Agency announcing 6,913 new cases.

There were 53,669 tests for a 12.5% positivity for October 15, 2021. This is the lowest positivity we have had since the week of July 18, where the 7-day positivity rate was 12.1%.

The HCUR is even lower now as ICU utilization rate is reportedly at 59% in the NCR and 62% nationally.

The DoH reports 95 new deaths today.

NCR is doing well, with Rt at 0.59 (+/- 0.05). And the cases today accounted for lower than the 17.5-22.5% range of the total. Today, it was at 16.8% with 1,159 cases. Notice, however, that the cases are still up Northern Luzon (CAR, CagayanValley and Ilocos Region). In short, more than 83% of the cases today are outside of the NCR.

It was Negros Oriental that topped the provincial list today with 376 cases, followed by Isabela, Benguet, Negros Occidental and Pangasinan.

Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities, led by erstwhile leader Quezon City. Five cities outside of NCR were in the top ten, led by Baguio City. Others in the top ten were: Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, San Fernando (La Union), and Davao City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It was a good week for the Philippines. Not the best as we could do better. But not a bad one either, as the country saw 4 digits the whole week, with the last 4 days seeing 7,000 plus cases. The 7-day average last week was around 8,900/day. The very slow dip in the reproduction number is responsible for the gradual decline. However, other individual regions or provinces or cities/municipalities are seeing a faster decline in cases than the rest. The death reports have been very erratic due to the glitches in the COVIDKaya system of the DICT and Health Agency.

While we are seeing a dip in cases, the average tests done in the country have significantly declined as well. From previous highs of 70,000 daily tests (which was still considerably low due), the positivity rate had decreased significantly and plateaued at a 7 day average of 19%.

Total new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in select Asian countries have noticeably declined, except for Singapore which is still seeing an average of more than 3,000 daily cases. Thailand remains in the five digit category, but has seen its reproduction number dip to < 1.0 and should be touching 4 digit numbers the coming weeks.

Only Singapore still has a reproduction number > 1.0 but is seeing a plateau in the number of cases at the 3000 plus mark. All the other select Asian nations are seeing Rt <1.0, with Japan doing the best job of sustaining a Rt of < 0.5 for the past month. This is why the five digit cases of Japan are now in the 3 digits. If the Philippines can sustain a Rt < 0.5 for 1 whole month, our COVID-19 cases will remarkably drop. And that should be the goal, even while the economy is revving and raving to open. We MUST NOT lose focus on that goal.

Will we breach the 5,000/day 7-day average before the end of the month? That should be the goal for next week.

It’s the fourth straight day that the Philippines has logged 7,000 plus new cases. Today, the Health Agency announces 7,772 new cases based on 54,174 tests with a positivity rate of 13% last October 14. Todays report most likely include some backlog cases which did not get reported in the past days. The good news is that this is the lowest national positivity rate since July 31, where we marked a positivity rate of 12.8%.

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases are up at more than 85,000. Health care utilization and ICU utilization rate are moderate risk.

Total deaths reported today is 156.

The NCR accounted for 18% of the cases in the country, with the 1,429 new cases today. Cagayan Valley was back in second spot, but the Bicol Region is up in 5th rank.

Four provinces from Northern Luzon are in the top ten, with Isabela and Benguet in first and second rank. The other two are Nueva Vizcaya and Cagayan.

While 10 of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila were in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases today, it was the City of Taguig that overtook Quezon City for the first time since the start of this surge to rank first on the level of local government units. Eight cities continued to report triple digits, while the rest reported double numbers.

Cities outside of NCR in the top ten were: Zamboanga City, Naga City, Baguio City, Davao City, and Bacolod City.

It’s another 7K day (third in a row) and that should be good news as the Health Agency reports 7,625 cases today. With more recoveries, the total active cases are now down to less than 80,000. The Philippines breaches the 2.7M mark with today’s new cases.

Total tests done last October 13 was close to 50,000 with a positivity of 14.9%.

Hospital utilization and ICU utilization is at moderate risk.

Total deaths reported today is 203.

The NCR accounted for 18% of the total cases today with 1,381 new cases. Except for BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits.

Isabela province and Negros Occidental led the provinces with most cases.

On an LGU level, only 8 LGUs reported triple digits while the remaining 12 reported double digits. The LGU in 20th spot, the City of Marikina, had 49 cases. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top ten – Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Baguio City, Davao City and Antipolo (Rizal).

The NCR plus eight are composed of the following: Mega Manila, Cebu City, Davao city, four provinces in CALABARZON (Batangas, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal) and two provinces in Central Luzon (Bulacan and Pampanga).

Based on the OCTA Research data, six of these areas are now at moderate risk, while two – Cebu City and Cavite – are at low risk. This is based on the average values for the indicators of ADAR (incidence rate), Rt (reproduction number), health care utilization (HCUR and ICU utilization rate) and positivity of tests.

Based on these indicators, only NCR has an ADAR > 10, while the rest are now below. Reproduction rate is all the nine hot spots are well below the national average, with Cebu City enjoying a Rt < 0.5. ICU utilization rate is also down to moderate levels in most of these places, and the positivity rate for testing is < 10% for Cebu City and Cavtie, at 10% for NCR, and above the national average of 14.5% in Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas and Davao City.

With 51,358 tests done on October 12, 2021 and a positivity rate of 14%, the Health Agency reports 7,835 new cases today (including some cases which may have not been reported in past days or even weeks). The active cases are up at close to 85,000.

The positivity rate varies from region to region, with the NCR at 11% and some areas like Central Visayas at 8%.

Health care utilization is lower in general (moderate risk), with ICU utilization rate at 65% nationally and 61% in the NCR.

New deaths announced today is 154. The case fatality rate for outcomes is at 1.54%.

For the past week, NCR has ranged from 17.5-22.5% of the total daily cases in the country. NCR plus (CALABARZON and Central Luzon) accounted for an average of 45% of the share of total daily cases. The target should be to decrease further the cases in these areas, and while they are the economic hubs of Luzon and, well, the country, targeting specific reforms (improving indoor ventilation in offices and malls, improve testing and aggressive contact tracing, stricter granular lockdowns particularly in areas where crowding is highest, increase vaccination in the more congested areas and among informal settlers) is highly suggested.

Regions MUST receive their lion’s share of the vaccines for the eligible adult population so that there is equity in vaccinating them sooner than later. Adults are the direct economic frontliner in every household. They need to work in order to put food on the table. The vaccines should be accessible to even the most far flung areas. Evidently, from the daily data drop, one can see that the delta surge has reached every tip of the archipelago – from Batanes to Jolo. And no one is safe, until everyone is safe.

On a provincial level, Benguet continued to lead among the top ten.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The good news is that of the top 20 LGUs, 10 of them have low three digits, while the other ten are double digit figures. A good sign considering a month ago, all LGUs in the top twenty either had four or three digits at the very least.

Five cities in the top ten were from NCR, while the other five were from major LGUs outside of Mega Manila. Those outside of NCR were: Baguio, Davao City, Zamboanga City, Bacoor (Cavite) and Bacolod City.