Relative Joy

With declining cases, the reproduction number of the Philippines as of October 3 stood at 0.85 (+/- 0.05). Which is good news, as NCR’s reproduction number slips further to 0.64 and a positivity rate around 16%.

Today, the Health Agency reports 10,019 new cases. With more than 7000 recoveries, the active cases is up at 115,328. Total tests done last October 5 was 56,418, with a positivity rate of 18.1% (higher nationally than Mega Manila).

New deaths reported were 109.

The very late post for the granular data is due to the glitches in uploading of COVIDKaya.

While NCR had 1,778 new cases, this was down to 17.7% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are back in second and third place, while Cagayan Valley had 1,015 new cases. Again, all the remaining regions reported triple digits.

This data is well correlated with the top provinces Benguet and Isabela which continued to lead on a provincial level.

On the LGU level, 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities with most cases. Baguio City, Davao City, Bacolod City and Zamboanga City made it to the top ten list.

Well, we all know that Tuesdays and Wednesdays will yield lower numbers. And we’re seeing this consistent trend as the Health Agency reports 9,868 new cases. And with only 133 new recoveries counted, the active cases are up at past 112,000.

There were 43,759 tests done last October 4, bringing the positivity rate to 18.2%.

With the glitches hounding COVIDKaya, no deaths were reported again for the second consecutive day.

The good news (well let’s just call it good) is the decline in healthcare utilization in both the NCR and nationally. The NCR’s HCUR has dropped considerably, with ICU utilization now < 70% (critical mark).

The NCR continued to see less than 2,000 cases today and surprisingly, CALBARZON and Central Luzon now report three digits! However, Cagayan Valley is seeing a continued rise in cases as it comes second to NCR with more than 1,500 today. The bad news is that ALL regions reported three digits today.

On a provincial level, it was surprising that Cavite and Laguna did not land in the top ten. Three provinces in the north ranked 1-3. They are: Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya and Benguet.

Only 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases today. Davao City, Baguio City, Zamboanga City and Solano (in Nueva Vizcaya) were among the top 10.

Because it’s a Tuesday, we expected lower cases. Well, not that low, considering that we had 10K cases yesterday.

The Health Agency announces 9,055 new cases today. It’s been quite a long while since we tipped four digit numbers. Even the positivity rate is now below the 20% margin, in spite of only 41,673 tests being done last October 3. With more than 12,000 recoveries, the active cases are down to 103,077.

Unfortunately, with the glitches on the COVIDKaya system, no deaths were announced today.

Healthcare utilization is also lower in both the national level and NCR.

While NCR and CALABARZON continue to lead among regions with most cases, generally, the number of cases are lower today. It is, however, the regions in Northern Luzon that continue to see increasing cases in spite of the lower cases nationally.

The regional data is reflected also in the provincial level as the provinces of Isabela and Benguet continue the 1-2 lead, and three other provinces in the north, namely, Nueva Vizcaya, La Union and Ifugao are among the top ten provinces with most cases for the day.

It was a half and half scenario in the LGU level, where 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 list, while the remaining 10 were from outside of NCR.

Unexpected. After all, today is a Monday. Yet the lowest number of cases reported on a Monday since the July surge was reported today.

The Health Agency reports 10,748 new cases today and with over 16,000 recoveries, the active cases are down to a little more than 100,000. Another good news. Nevertheless, in spite of the lower cases today, it was enough to push the total of the Philippines past 2.6M. A new milestone. Hopefully, it slows down as it targets the next milestone of 2.7M.

There were close to 60,000 tests done last October 2, a Saturday, with a 20.2% positivity rate (which is still considerably high).

There were 61 new deaths announced today.

The final good news, is that the hospital utilization rate in the National Capital Region is declining slowly as well. ICU utilization rate will always be a late parameter because recovery of severe and critically ill patients will always be delayed.

NCR had a pleasant surprise as well, owning 17% of the total cases in the country today. It was way below the range of percentage of the share of COVID-19 cases. On the flip side of the good news is Northern Luzon, where Regions I, II and CAR are seeing higher cases. NCR plus (CALABARZON and Central Luzon) accounted for 40% of the total cases (a large drop from the usual 50-55%), but Northern Luzon saw a rapid rise to 35% (from 18-25% the previous week) of the share of total cases for the day.

This is reflected in the provincial count where the provinces of Ilocos Sur, Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya have dominated the top provinces for the day.

Even on an LGU level (cities and municipalities), while 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases, 8 of the LGUs from Regions I, II and CAR were in the list. Baguio City continued to be in number 2 for cities with most cases in the country.

The late report of the Health Agency due to glitches in COVIDKaya is back.

There are 13,273 new cases reported today but with a whopping over 45,000 recoveries, the active cases are down to a tad above 112,000. Tomorrow, the Philippines will surpass the next milestone with more than 2.6M cases.

Close to 65,000 tests were done last October 1, giving a positive rate of 20.2%. Hopefully, if we do more tests, we should be able to bring this down to less than 20% next week.

New deaths announced is 112 today.

NCR accounted for a moderate number of the total cases, up from a previous day of 19% to 22% today. First place Quezon City alone accounted for almost the same number of cases of four cities that ranked 2nd to 5th – Davao City, City of Manila, Zamboanga City, and Caloocan City.

On a regional level, Regions I, II and CAR continued to report high number of cases and made up for almost 24% of the total national cases.

The province of Isabela topped the provincial level.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases for the day, while the rest were from LGUs outside of Mega Manila.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It was a rollercoaster week as the Philippines saw a slight decline in its average daily cases. In spite of the lower 7-day average, it remained in the top 10 among countries with most cases in the world over the past week. The glitches in the data system added to the daily anxiety as the cases (and deaths) were announced late (or not at all).

So the good news is that we are seeing a decline in cases. The bad news is that it’s still considerably high compared to the March/April surge.

The disturbing part of the pandemic response in the country is the variability in testing capacity. We are second to Mexico, among countries that have low testing and therefore announce a high positivity rate. Tests are important because it helps identify those that are sick or asymptomatic. Patients positive for the virus are infective – where they are symptomatic or not. If you look at the daily data of the Department of Health, the asymptomatic account for an average of 15% of the active cases. A situation that is alarming because we are under estimating the numbers considering that testing capacity is low.

We cannot solely lie on vaccines to control the surge. We already know for a fact that people who are vaccinated have the potential to develop breakthrough infections and that patients who are vaccinated, get infected with delta variant, have the same viral load as non vaccinated individuals. The difference lies in the unvaccinated ending up sicker and more serious than non vaccinated people.

As the cases slow down, the reproduction number nationally is stable at 1.05 (+/- 0.05). Which isn’t too bad but isn’t declining more rapidly. The R in the NCR is lower than the national R. That is because the cases in other regions, especially Northern Luzon have dragged the R up.

Among select Asian nations, Singapore is currently dealing with their own problems of a surge that is spiraling as well. It is now in a more strict mode for mobility for its citizens. Note, however, that the other ASEAN countries have dropped their R much faster and consistently than the Philippines. And that is why testing counts a lot.

The same Asian countries above, it is the Philippines that leads in the most number for 7-day average. ALL ASEAN nations show a downward trend in cases, except for Singapore that is in an upward trajectory.

The good news is that we seem to have plateaued.

The Health Agency reports 14,786 new cases today and with only 894 recoveries, the active cases jump close to 145,000.

While this is good news, the unsettling issue is the testing. There were only 68,233 tests run on September 30, with a positivity rate of 22.1%. While there are more testing done in NCR and in other HUCs (e.g., Cebu), it is not the same across all provinces particularly in areas where there are few testing facilities. It cannot be overemphasized that the government needs to invest in more testing in order to see the true picture of the cases in the country. With more than 22% positivity, we are definitely under testing and under estimating the real number of cases of COVID19. You cannot control a pandemic properly if you do not see the enemy. You cannot rely on vaccination as the only exit strategy in this pandemic.

There are 164 new deaths recorded today.

Notice that of the 144,000 plus active COVID19 cases, over 13% are asymptomatic, while 2.7% (or 3,900) are severe and critical and 2.56% (5,130) are moderate. Remember, the classification is based on the clinical presentation of the patient at the time the test was done. It is possible that patients who are asymptomatic become mild or even die later on. I doubt that the agency follows up each and every patient.

The NCR posted less than 3,000 cases today, accounting for 19.5% of the total cases. Other regions with four digits were: CALABARZON, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, CAR and Cagayan Valley. The cases in Northern Luzon are disturbingly high as Regions I, II, and CAR account for close to 27% of the total cases in the country today.

While Cavite topped the provinces, it was four provinces in Northern Luzon that were in the top five: Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Benguet, and La Union.

On a city/municipality level, Quezon City will always be the city to beat in terms of number of cases. Baguio City remains a solid second behind Quezon City. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top twenty, while the remaining are from LGUs in the provinces.

With a little more than 15,000 cases announced by the Health Agency today, and the more than 23,000 recoveries, the active cases are now down to 130,000.

With more than 63,000 tests done last September 29 (not October as in the infographic), the percent positive is at 21.3% (lower than the past days but still high).

The Health Agency reports 199 new deaths today.

The NCR accounted for almost 4,000 new cases today (25% of national total), with Quezon City leading the haul. Quezon City alone was responsible for more than 28% of the cases in Mega Manila. As a matter of fact, today’s total was almost equivalent to the total of the cities in 2nd to 4th rank for the day.

Other regions with quadruple digits include the annexed regions to NCR – CALABARZON and Central Luzon – and Ilocos Region. NCR plus had close to 54% of the total cases today. All other regions reported triple digits. From the data, it will be awhile before the whole country sees four digit numbers UNLESS the three key regions in NCR plus bring their cases down and account for less than 25% of the total daily cases in the country. A feat that will take quite sometime to achieve.

Rizal, Laguna, Cavite – provinces in Region IVA led the haul for the day.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities, while the rest were from major HUCs in the country.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

Featured today are the two regions that are annexed to Mega Manila. It is important that the cases in these two contiguous areas drop, together with NCR. That is because they share a very thin border and a very wide base for leisure, recreation and home. Many of those that work in the national capital have established homes outside of their work area.

Managing the pandemic is not about concentrating all responses to the epicenter alone. Notice that when NCR has increasing numbers, CALABARZON and Central Luzon see a concomitant rise in cases, and vice-versa.

While CALABARZON shows a high positivity rate compared to the NCR, it is showing a gradual (and hopefully sustained) decline in cases. Many of the ICUs in the hospitals in these areas are the reason for the spill over of cases in the region into the National Capital Region, hence, overwhelming the healthcare resources of NCR. Hopefully, with the declining trend, we should be able to also ease the burden of the NCR sooner than later.

We end the month of September on a high note. There were less cases today than expected, which is actually a good sign that we most likely will not see the 20K mark anytime soon.

More than 60,000 tests done last September 28 showed 22% positivity. While the positivity rate is still high, it is lower than the previous positivity rates of close to 30%. In addition, the positivity rate is also much lower in the NCR, the epicenter of the pandemic.

There are 130 new deaths announced today.

NCR accounted for 23% of today’s cases with 3,241 reported. Four regions report four digit numbers: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and Ilocos Region. All the rest, except for the BARMM report triple digits, on a day when many regions report lower cases which may not necessarily reflect the real number of cases but a delay in reporting.

The provinces of Benguet and Cagayan top the provincial level.

Among cities and municipalities, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR remain the haulers for the top 20 list. Baguio City, Davao City and Zamboanga City are among the top 10 cities with most cases for the day.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

The last week saw a continuous downtrend of COVID-19 cases in NCR, with average cases ranging from 20-23% of the total cases in the country. This meant that there was a general decline of 17% from the previous week. The reproduction number (R) moves down to 0.87 from 0.94-0.99. The positivity rate in the capital has also decreased to 18% (from a previous 21%).

While NCR remains at high risk, six LGUs are considered moderate risk based on the indicators used by OCTA – Incidence rate, R, hospital bed utilization and ICU utilization.

It’s always good to hear better news. So instead of the low Tuesdays, we’ve had lower cases on Wednesdays. And this time, it’s not only the cases that are a bit lower, but it’s also the positivity rate.

The Health Agency announces 12,805 new cases for today. With less recoveries, the active cases are slightly up.

There were more than 51,000 tests done last September 27, for a positivity rate of 22.9%. The lower positivity rate is good news if we are able to sustain this and we do more testing so that we can do appropriate contact tracing.

The deaths are a different matter altogether. The Health Agency this morning announced 292 additional deaths, which did not include the 190 deaths in the 4PM report. The aliquot reporting on deaths was likely due to glitches the system has been experiencing in the past week. Note that 212 cases that were previously tagged as recoveries were reclassified as deaths after final validation. One hundred seventy five of these recoveries to deaths are part of the 292 deaths added this morning. This brings the total deaths due to COVID19 past the 38,000 mark. [Note that the DoH corrected the deaths an hour after posting and the total deaths reported in the 4PM report were down to 186, making the total deaths of the day 448.]

The NCR accounted for 23% of the total cases for the day with 2,967. Other regions with four digits were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas. None of the regions reported less than triple digits.

On a provincial level, Rizal and Cavite led the provinces.

And on a LGU level, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. Included in the top ten LGUs were: Baguio (2nd), Davao City (4th), Antipolo (5th), Bacolod City (8th), Bacoor City (Cavite, 9th) and Iloilo City (10th), as many LGUs in the provinces are in the top 10.

After the glitches left and right from the Health Agency, and the very late night report for yesterday’s cases, the Department of Health reports 13,846 new cases today. With close to 40,000 that have recovered, the active cases are also down to a little more than 130,000.

On September 26, there were 47,430 tests with a high 24.1% positivity rate.

New deaths reported today were 91. This puts the case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.57%.

Notice also in the active cases, the very large asymptomatic cases – 16.4!

For the second straight day, NCR accounted for a low 20% of the total cases in the country. While there are four other regions with quadruple digits, it is Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Regions that is seeing a large rise in cases.

Benguet and Cagayan now lead on a provincial level, with Benguet for the first time reporting four digit numbers.

Even on a local level, Baguio City shot up to number 2, next to Quezon City, with 537 cases for the day. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities for the day, while Davao City, Zamboanga City, Bacoor City (Cavite) and La Trinidad (Benguet) joined the top ten list.