With reproduction number ranging from 1.1-1.2 (+/- 0.5), we continue to average more than 20,000 new daily cases. The common question asked is are we plateauing or have we peaked?
Based on the surge data and the reproduction rate, we seem to plateau at 20,000. If we maintain the reproduction number and keep it lower, then we most likely would have occasional bursts of higher numbers, but should be peaking this weekend.
The problem in this scenario is the high positive rate that continues to exceed 25% in spite of more than 75,000 tests done last September 15, 2021.
During the last surge in April, the highest positivity we recorded was 22.8% on April 7. The positivity rate dropped significantly to 9.8% on May 26. But the next smaller surge in June showed a peak positivity rate of 13%. The July surge was accompanied with positivity rates exceeding 25%. And plateauing at more than 25% positivity rate at a time when the government decides to loosen mobility restrictions can go either ways. We will sit this one out. In the meantime, please, if you don’t need to go out unnecessarily, don’t.
The Health Agency reports 20,336 new cases today, and with less than half that number as recoveries, the active cases are now close to 190,000.
With 310 new deaths, the total deaths now exceed 36,000.
Even NCR had a decent share of the total cases for the day with 25% of daily total. Other regions with quadruple digits were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas.
On a provincial level the top 4 provinces were all from CALABARZON – Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal.
Twelve of 17 LGUs from NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. Four LGUs were from CALABARZON, while Davao City remains in the top five.
The data today was expected. Remember, the reproduction number? It is still above 1.0.
The Health Agency reports 21,261 new cases today, pushing the active cases back to more than 177,000. The total cases today was enough to breach the 2.3M mark as the Philippines now has 2,304,192 COVID-19 cases.
Of the 74,149 tests done on September 14, the positivity rate jumps to 27%.
New deaths announced today are 277. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.69%.
While the R is a bit lower both in the NCR and nationally, the number of cases continue to rise.
The readers need to understand that a R of 1.0 indicates flat reproduction. If you had 1 case yesterday, with R at 1.0, you would have mostly likely 1 additional case tomorrow. With effective reproduction still above 1.0, the number of new daily cases continue to increase BUT have slowed down. In the NCR, the growth rate is down from 14% to 9%.
The bad news is that the positivity rate remains very high at 25% (albeit, lower than the national positivity rate of 27%).
The NCR accounted for a high median of 27.5% with 5,846 cases. NCR plus maintained more that 57% of the total cases in the country. Seven regions report 4 digit cases per region including Western Visayas, Ilocos Region, and Davao Region. All other regions report triple digits.
Cavite led among provinces with most cases, with Rizal, Laguna and Batangas in the top 10 provinces.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs in Region IVA were in the top twenty.
In an unusual turn of events, the past Wednesdays have had lower cases than the low Tuesdays.
The Health Agency reports, close to 17,000 cases today. And with more than 24,000 new recoveries, brings down the active cases to a little above 170,000.
More than 57,000 tests done on September 13, showed a positivity of 25.9%.
There were 214 new deaths announced today, bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.7%.
Rising ICU bed utilization in the NCR at close to 80% places the region in a critical state. As the region experimentally transitions to a new level of quarantine classification tomorrow, the balance between economy and health at a time of high cases will be tested.
The percentage range of cases for NCR is usually between 25-30% of the total cases for the day. The NCR is at the low range today with 25.8% of the total cases. Regions IVA and III continue to trail NCR. These three regions contributed to 57% of the total cases in the nation.
Cavite remains the province to beat. The provinces of Laguna, Rizal and Batangas, all within the CALABARZON region, are in the top 10.
Among LGUs, 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. In NCR, Quezon City alone had more cases than the combined total of the cities of Taguig, City of Manila and Makati today. Three LGUs in Cavite join the top 20 list.
The usual Tuesday is 25-30% lesser than the 7-day average of cases. Since the 7-day average is now at 20,500, the usually ‘low’ Tuesdays would be around 15,000 new cases.
Not this Tuesday.
The Health Agency reports 18,056 new cases, as tests done last Sunday, September 12 pass the 50,000 mark (the highest number of tests on a Sunday). The positivity rate is also up at 29.7%. ICU rate in NCR is up at 79% (which I think is even higher considering that some hospitals may have beds but direly lack manpower at this point).
The total deaths reported today is 222, bringing the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.70%.
Based on the 7 day average the past week, we add 100,000 new cases every 5 days. If the cases continue in this trajectory, we will be seeing a new record high this week.
The NCR had a more than higher median average cases today (27.5%). Four other regions reported four digits – CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Ilocos Region, and Cagayan Valley. NCR plus accounted for 55% of the total shares of cases today.
Cavite, Rizal and Laguna topped provinces with most cases today.
Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases for the day. Five LGUs in CALABARZON were in the top 20 list as well. There we six unknowns in the NCR reported today.
With 20,745 new cases announced today, the 7-day average cases for the country is around 20,500 new daily cases. The active cases remain high at over 180,000.
Tests done on September 11 was close to 72,000 with a slightly lower positivity rate of 26.7% (nevertheless still critically high).
New deaths today are 163, with the case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.71%.
With the upcoming new classification for lockdowns to be implemented in the NCR, Mega Manila continued to account for more than one-fourth (28%) of the cases in the country. NCR plus owned 62% of the total share. Again, all regions outside of NCR plus had triple digit cases.
The provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan and Batangas continued to lead on a provincial level.
On a LGU level, 13 of 17 LGUs in NCR now are in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs in CALABARZON also make it to the list.
Hopefully, the glitches have been fixed, as the backlogs have somehow are being addressed.
The Health Agency reports 21,411 new cases today and with more than 25,000 recoveries, the active cases are down to around 182,000.
More than 78,000 tests (the highest number of daily tests) were done last September 10 still showed 27% positive rate. Way above the acceptable positive rate.
ICU utilization rate is now close to 80% in the NCR and at 77% nationally.
There are 168 new deaths reported today. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.72%.
With the technical glitches addressed (that is my presumption), the NCR average trend is back to 26-27% with the 5,619 cases today. Other regions with quadruple digits are CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Ilocos Region. All other regions reported triple digits.
The provinces of Cavite and Laguna led with four digits on a provincial level.
Among LGUs, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty with Quezon City leading with quadruple numbers. 3 LGUs in Cavite were also in the top 20 list.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
The Philippines finished the week with a day in the top 4 countries in the world with most COVID-19 cases. In a nation where the face shield is the symbol of managing this pandemic, the daily numbers do not reflect the actual cases we are seeing daily. And here is why.
TESTING
The World Health Organization pegs 5% as the acceptable positivity rate. Between 5-10%, is still manageable. But notice that we have never looked back to even <10% positivity rate since March 2021. Today, we have eclipsed all records and the 7-day average for positive stands at more than 25% or 1 in every 4 people tested, testing positive. Although we have had more tests done in this surge compared to the last one in March/April, it isn’t enough. Which means that most likely only those with symptoms or hospitalized end up being tested. With cases this high, the only way we can bring down the positive rate is to do good contact tracing. The total number to test to bring the positive rate to ~10%? At least 250,000 – 300,000 per day. An impossible feat considering that more than half of all testing facilities are in NCR plus.
CASES AND DEATHS
We have not peaked yet. As of September 11, 2021, the 7-day average is 20,722 new cases daily. With a national R still >1.0, there will be a continued rise in daily cases, but managing to slow down, based on the data being churned by the Health Agency. Remember, all these data do not come from thin air. They come from the Data Drop of the the COVID19 tracker of the Department of Health. We are still in an upward trajectory. And the densest regions and provinces are taking the brunt of the outbreak.
The new cases include breakthrough infections. While the Food and Drug Authority reports that only a small percentage are attributable to breakthrough infections, the data on the ground do not seem to point to that. That is because many of have been vaccinated, develop symptoms and get tested, are either asymptomatic or mild. Breakthrough infections, like other countries are under reported.
The deaths are lower, which may be a good sign because of having many of those living in the more dense areas of the country vaccinated. It may, however, also mean that because deaths are late reports, we are not seeing the actual picture for now. The course of illness of those that are severe and critical may take a longer course. When the cases begin to decline, the true picture of deaths will be revealed.
HOW ARE WE FARING WITH OTHER SELECT ASIAN COUNTRIES
Compared to other countries, the Philippines now ranks number 1 among other ASEAN nations and is second to India in the whole of Asia in terms of daily new cases. All other countries that are in the midst of the delta crisis are seeing a decline in cases. Singapore, a country with less than 6M people is seeing an increase in cases but is at the lower end because of their population size.
THE REPRODUCTION NUMBER
While the Philippines may have the highest daily cases, it is Singapore that leads among countries with the highest reproduction number. The R of the PH is lower this week at 1.10 compared to last week at 1.2. This does not mean that there is a decline in cases. It only means that we have plateaued at a certain average and have not peaked yet. The daily numbers are slowing down and not significantly increasing. The data, however, should be taken with the perspective of the high positive rate. This means that whatever numbers we are seeing, are most likely higher if more testing and tracing were done.
VACCINATION AND DELTA
The IATF reports that almost 50% of the eligible adults in the National Capital Region have been vaccinated (either with one or two doses). With the variability of vaccine efficacy on which vaccine was rolled out and when they were vaccinated (many frontliners receiving Sinovac over 6 months ago), the question on boosters is now up in the air. Many of the neighboring countries where the Delta variant is the predominant serotype, have started providing “boosters” to frontliners who are at highest risk of breakthrough infections due to the natural hazard of their work. While the total number of vaccinated (whether fully or partially) is at over 17% in the country (as of this report), the government should work quicker in order to allow access of more vaccines sans red tape so that they can rationalize reopening the economy. After all, the virus is not specific to Mega Manila alone. The whole country especially the workforce should be the priority. For those that can afford to purchase the vaccines, this should be allowed particularly with vaccines like Pfizer-BioNTech which already has full authorization in the country of origin (USA). This will solve the inequity issue in the country, where those who can afford to buy the vaccine can purchase it on their own.
I guess the numbers 9/11 is symbolic. Twenty years ago, it stood for the worst terror attack in the United States.
As the world stood to remember that day, the Philippines breaks an all time high in COVID19 cases with the Health Agency announcing 26,303 new cases. It took a day to surpass the 2.2 Million mark. This pushes the active cases past 185,000 and climbing.
Note that of todays cases, 1,608 were supposed to have been included yesterday but were not. The total number of cases for September 11 is actually 24,695.
Tests done September 9 were past 75,000 but the positivity rate was still unmanageable at 27.6%.
The health care capacity is definitely at past critical levels, with the NCR’s ICU rate past 77% (which is an under report). Note that this does not count the beds for “closed” ICUs because of lack of personnel to man these units.
Total deaths reported was 79 as the total deaths near 35,000. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.73%.
The NCR had a record high of more than 9,000 cases or close to one-third of the total cases in the country today. Three other regions were reporting quadruply digits – CALABARZON, Central Luzon, and Western Visayas. But it was NCR that stood out among the rest with numbers too numerous to validate that more than 11% of the NCR cases were from unknown LGUs.
On a provincial level, six provinces reported quadruple digits, making this the highest number of provinces recording 4-digits in a single day. They were: Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Iloilo and Batangas.
Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. This, notwithstanding the fact that 1,026 were unknowns from NCR. Six LGUs in CALABARZON were also in the 20 twenty list.
As the day closed, the Philippines, for the first time, ranked 4th (it’s highest ever) among the global cases of COVID-19 on 09.11.2021.
On a day when we expected higher numbers, the Health Agency reports close to 18,000 new cases today.
With over 76,000 tests done and a positive rate of 28.9%, it is without doubt that this surge is out of control as more and more patients who are symptomatic are getting tested. The active cases are now past 175,000 (8%) and we will cross 2.2 M mark within the weekend.
An additional 168 deaths were announced today, bringing the case fatality ratio to 1.73%.
The National Capital Region had 4,359 cases or 24.2% of the national total. Three other regions reported quadruple numbers – CALABARZON, Central Luzon and Davao Region. Note that while these are today’s reported numbers, the backlog of the Health Agency is relatively large and when the unreported and unvalidated numbers come in, one should not be surprised at new record highs.
On a provincial level, Cavite maintains its lead with 1,482 cases reported today. The surprise of the day is the province of Bukidnon that joined the 10 provinces with most cases in the country.
Among the top LGUs, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20. Davao City came in second rank with 615 cases. Four LGUs from CALABARZON joined the list, while Baguio City, Iloilo City and the city of Valencia (in Bukidnon) rounded up the rest.
Let’s start with the data yesterday that was updated today. Aside from the 12,751 new cases yesterday, the health agency reports that there was an additional 5,132 new cases (making the real total at 17,883 cases for 09.08.2021). An additional 41 recoveries were recorded, but apparently no new deaths added.
With the glitch fixed, the Health Agency waited till 830PM to upload the bad news. We have a new record high of 22,820 cases. And the 12,000 or so recoveries was not enough to avert the higher cases. This now pushes the active cases past 166,000 and will surely place the country within the top ten countries with highest new cases in the world tomorrow.
Today’s cases push the Philippines one notch higher, passing Peru for the 19th rank in the world with most COVID19 cases.
With close to 75,000 cases, the positive rate is also at a record high – 29.4% or 1 in every 3 people tested on September 7, tested positive.
The silver lining was the low new deaths of 61. This puts the case fatality ratio for outcomes at 1.74%.
While NCR reported more than 6,615 new case, we were peppered with the unknowns, where 1,696 of these were tagged an unknown LGU. It is either another “glitch” in data entry or really sloppy collection of data where 26% of the total cases in NCR had unknown locations. Five other regions reported quadruple digits as well – CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Ilocos, Central Visayas and Cagayan Valley. Ironically, there were no unknowns on a regional level.
Cavite, Laguna and Bulacan reported quadruple digits on a provincial level, to top the provinces for the day.
In spite of the more than 1,600 unknown localities of the NCR cases, 11 of 16 LGUs were in the top 20 LGUs with most cases for the day. If there were more accurate data, most likely more LGUs in the NCR would have been in the top 20. Six LGUs from CALABARZON were also in the top 20 list.
OCTA MONITORING REPORT
While there seems to be a minot downward trend in new cases in some LGUs in NCR, it is volatile at the moment. Given the fact that there is some resistance to continued lockdowns and not enough vaccines have been rolled out (remember the target is not 70% but should be 90% of the eligible population) in Mega Manila. There is also paucity of data among breakthrough infections, but this is understandable as this is under reported.
Nevertheless, the ADAR (incidence rate) remains critical in ALL the 17 LGUs in NCR, with Pateros, San Juan, Makati, Parañaque and Pasig having the highest. Bed utilization is critical in Pateros, Malabon and Caloocan. And the reproduction rate is highest in Mandaluyong at 1.59. Those included in the critical level are: San Juan, Marikina, Pasig, Pateros and Parañaque.
Navotas saw a significant drop in rate of cases (-31%) and had the lowest reproduction at 1.04.
No, it is real. Well, that’s the formal announcement of the Health Agency for the data today.
The Department of Health, in their late announcement today, reports, 12,751 new cases. With more recoveries today than cases, the active cases dip to a little more than 150,000.
Total tests done on September 6 (with 5 laboratories not reporting) was a little more than 57,000 for another high positive rate of 28.1%.
Total deaths reported today is at 174 placing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.76%.
So it was a ‘technical glitch day’, hence accounting for the lower total cases today. Expect the ‘other unreported new cases’ to pour in within the week. The cases today are reported here as reported by the Department of Health in the data drop, and may not actually reflect the cases in the various levels (regions, provincial, LGU) because the the glitch in the DICT.
In spite of the glitch, it was still NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon that led the haul among regions, accounting for 55% of the day’s cases.
Cavite maintained its over-all provincial lead, while Davao del Sur came in second.
Among LGUs, NCR had 10 of its 17 LGUs in the top 20 list, while 6 LGUs came from CALABARZON. The city of Bacoor in Cavite was in fourth rank today.
Relative Joy 