Because it is a Tuesday, the 4,777 new cases announced today by the Health Agency were from tests done on June 6, 2021 with a very high 14.3% positivity rate (because less than 30,000 tests were done. This tells us that the high positivity rate is due to the low testing being done in the country.). With lower new cases, the active cases are now at 4.4% (56,452). And while they may be lower, they are indicative of the actual number of cases (only the reported ones) in the country.

Number of deaths today are at 95. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.80%.

Note, however, that in spite of the lower cases in the NCR in the past weeks, the utilization for ICU beds is up at 53% from 49% yesterday. An increase of 4%.

While the news came in really really really late, the update for cases by region, provinces and LGUs show that CALABARZON continued to lead on a regional level. This time, Central Luzon overtook NCR for second spot. Western Visayas comes in fourth with a little more than 50 cases separating it from Mega Manila. Ironically, even on a day that reported less cases, ALL regions in the Philippines continued to report triple digits.

In NCR, only Quezon City reported triple digits with 127 new cases. Five of 17 LGUs in NCR landed among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Negros Occidental and South Cotabato took the lead.

On a city/municipality level, Bacolod City grabbed the lead with 196 cases, followed by Quezon City and Davao City.

The OCTA Research Monitoring provides an update for LGUs with most new cases per day (from June 1-7, 2021). Davao City shows a growth of 44% putting it in the lead among cities with most cases. Quezon City is the only LGU from NCR that is among the top five cities with most cases. The other cities in the top five are: Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod and Iloilo City.

Koronadal and Dumaguete City are reporting growths over 100% with average daily attack rates in the high risk zone.

The Health Agency reports 6,539 new cases based on more than 45,000 tests done last June 5, with a positivity rate of 13.3%. However, there were 7 laboratories that failed to submit reports for this day. If all labs most likely submitted test reports, the new cases would be closer to 7K. There are still close to 60K active cases (4.6%).

An additional 71 new deaths were reported as well, bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.80% for today. Healthcare utilization is higher nationally compared to the NCR. However, the granular breakdown on how specific cities in the country are doing during this second surge is better delineated in the updated OCTA Research Monitoring report.

CALABARZON continued its four digit tally with 1,049 new cases. NCR was in second (12.4% of the total cases in the PH) and Western Visayas in third spot. All regions continued to report triple digits for the day.

In NCR, only Quezon City and Pasig reported triple digits, and at a little more than 100 cases for the day. Six of 17 LGUs in NCR stay in the top twenty cities with most cases in the country.

On a provincial level, Laguna and Cavite, two major provinces in Region IVA, continued to dominate the rest of the provinces in number of cases for the day. These two provinces, together with Batangas, remain the major drivers of cases in CALABARZON.

The shift in tide of cases to the regions outside of NCR among the various LGU cities and municipalities is glaringly seen today as Davao City continued to stay on top among cities with most cases for the day. There are now 7 cities outside of NCR that are in the top ten. Aside from Davao City, they include: Dumaguete City, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, Butuan City, General Santos City, and Baguio City.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Report on June 7 shows that the NCR plus bubble continued the decline of 11% after a week of uncertain trends. Positivity rate in Mega Manila is 9%.

However, the major cities of concern have shifted to Mindanao and some areas in Visayas. The provinces of concern are Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Davao del Sur, South Cotabato, Negros Oriental, Leyte and Bukidnon, that are seeing rising cases. Health Care Utilization Rate more than 70% is noted in the provinces of Iloilo, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan.

Among LGUs with most new cases per day, Dumaguete saw 206% increase in the period May 31 – June 6. Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod City and Iloilo City ranked 2nd to 5th for the first time. The average daily attack rate is highest for Bacolod, Iloilo City, Tuguegarao, Koronadal and Dumaguete. ICU health utilization rate is deadliest in Iloilo City, General Santos, Tuguegarao, Koronadal, Bacoor (Cavite), Cotabato City, and Dumaguete City.

So we’ve been treading the 7,000 mark over the past few days. Today, the Health Agency reports 7,228 new cases for close to 44,000 tests done last June 4 with a 13.2% positivity rate. In the weekly summary update, one will see the U turn the Philippines took in the past two weeks. In spite of the more than 7,372 recoveries for the day, the total number of active cases is at 4.7% (almost 60K).

New deaths reported were 166 today putting the case fatality ratio fixed at 1.81 percent.

As of yesterday, there were 45,703 new cases reported this week and an uptick in death count at 1,008 new deaths for the week May 30 – June 5, 2021.

CALABARZON took over the regional lead today as the only region reporting four digits with 1,046 new cases. NCR came in second and had one of its lowest percentage over-all total contribution at 13% (957) to total cases for today. The surprise? Western Visayas – which had moved to third place with 768 new cases. All regions continued to report triple digit numbers.

Every city in the NCR had less than 200 cases, with only Quezon City and Manila reporting triple digits. Two cities and one municipality even reported single digit cases. Seven of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases in the Philippines for the day.

The province of Negros Occidental took over the lead among the top provinces, while Iloilo province came in fourth.

Bacolod City had the most cases among all cities, followed by Davao City, for the day. Other cities outside of NCR that were among the top ten included: Iloilo City, Cagayan de Oro and Dasmariñas City (Cavite).

The week in review now shows the U turn the country took the past two weeks. Notice how the deaths also took an upward trajectory. It is interesting to note the parallelism for the uptick in cases during the first and second surge. The first surge last August 2020 lasted more more than 2 months. The NCR and areas around NCR were the primary contributors to these cases. When the cases began to decline by end of September, there was an increase in cases that lasted close to a month. That second rise was from the regions outside of NCR. The second surge which began the last week of February 2021 was again attributed to the NCR plus bubble. Another lockdown (ECQ followed by MECQ and heightened GCQ) for 4 months now pushed the cases down. Similar to the first surge, we were never able to bring the cases low enough as mobility allowed the cases to migrate to the regions. The U turn, is attributed to the rise of cases outside of NCR plus bubble.

Testing capacity remained a paltry around 40-50K per day. It is lowest during Sundays and Mondays. Because most of the testing centers are located in the NCR plus bubble and in major urban areas of the country, it is understandable that we have lower tests conducted because the regions are not that capacitated. This is why the positivity rate takes the same U turn as the cases. We are not testing enough in the regions outside of NCR because of lack of testing centers in these regions.

TTIQ – Testing, Tracing, Isolating and Quarantining – remain the four important cornerstones for addressing the pandemic. Including variants and surges. We need to maximize at strengthening these four pillars. While the government emphasizes the duty of each citizen to mask up, keep a distance, observe hand washing, improve ventilation and keep away from crowded venues, it is a good reminder for government to observe that it is their duty to ensure TTIQ is sustained and consistent across all LGUs in the country. The vaccines are only ONE PART of the solution. We cannot keep waiting for the donations and purchases to arrive. TTIQ is the obligation of government to its people.

While today’s new cases test the 6000 margin, it’s like a fire sale. No, we are not testing the 6K mark. We’re still at the 7K lane as the Health Agency announces 6,955 new cases today based on reports of close to 50K tests last June 3. Two labs did not submit reports to be included in todays cases, hence, the actual numbers today would put us most likely along the 7K margin. Again. The positivity rate remains stubborn at over 13%. I cannot reiterate that we are not testing and tracing enough, particularly in regions outside of the NCR where there is an obvious lack in testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine.

The active cases fall around 60K as the total cases rapidly move to more than 1.26M cases.

New deaths today were 195 which brings the case fatality ratio a notch higher at 1.81%.

Healthcare utilization is still higher nationally compared to the NCR as the number of cases in NCR are flat (around 15-18% per day).

Only NCR recorded quadruple digits, but the southern provinces continued to see increasing cases for the day. Mega Manila continued to report 15.6% of the total cases. Central Luzon came in second, while CALABARZON in third.

Among the LGUs in NCR, the top four cities continue to be Quezon City, Manila, Pasig and Caloocan City.

On a provincial level, Iloilo province took the forceful lead for the day, followed by Laguna, then Bulacan.

Among the top cities with most cases, it was Davao City that continued to lead in cases followed by Quezon City, Cagayan de Oro and Iloilo City. Three of five cities in the top twenty for the day are cities outside of NCR. Eight of 20 cities from NCR were in the top twenty. Oddly, cities/municipalities that were NEVER in the top twenty have appeared today: Santa Maria (Ilocos Sur), San Narciso (Zambales), Maria Aurora (Aurora), and Santiago (Agusan del Norte).

The Health Agency reported 7,450 new cases today based on reports last June 2 where close to 50,000 tests were conducted, with a positivity rate of 13.6%. Notice that the positivity rate has remained stable at a high of 12.5-14% over the past weeks. This means that we are likely plateauing and increasing slowly in new cases. The active cases are up at more than 60,000 (4.8%) today as only 2,382 new recoveries were recorded.

New deaths continued to be in the triple digits with 181 reported today. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes up at 1.8%.

Healthcare utilization is still higher nationally than the NCR as Visayas and Mindanao are reporting higher new cases than the NCR plus bubble.

CALABARZON takes back the top spot for most cases on a regional level. NCR is in second, owning 15% of the total cases and Central Luzon in third. These three regions continue to account for 40% of the total new cases for the Philippines.

Among LGUs in NCR, Quezon City continued to lead with close to 300 cases today. Two other cities reported triple digits – Manila and Pasig. Nine of 17 LGUs are in the top twenty cities/municipalities in the country with most cases.

On a provincial level, Laguna is back on top, followed by Cavite and then the provinces in Visayas and Mindanao dominate the haul for the day.

On a city level, five cities in NCR are among the top ten. The remaining five cities came from outside of NCR. They are: Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City and Dumaguete City – which ranked 2nd to 6th consecutively.

With 7,217 new cases today, based on close to 45,000 tests done on June 1 with a positivity rate up at 14%, the Philippines is close to 1.25M total COVID-19 cases. There are more new cases than recoveries, placing the active cases at more than 55,000.

New deaths reported were 199. This means that the case fatality ratio for recoveries is up at 1.79%.

The healthcare utilization is higher nationally than the National Capital Region on all parameters (ICU occupancy, isolation beds, wards, and ventilator use).

The NCR is back on top as the region with most cases, and while understandably so (it has the largest population with the smallest area), it added 1,218 new cases (16.8% of total) today. Central Luzon came in second with 954 cases but Western Visayas sees a rapid rise with 847 cases to snatch third spot. CALABARZON moves down to fourth and Davao Region is now in fifth.

Among LGUs in NCR, Quezon City and Caloocan City provide triple digits and 11 of 17 cities are among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Iloilo, Davao del Sur, and Negros Occidental are the top three.

Davao City maintains its lead as the city the most cases for the day, followed by Iloilo City in second spot, upstaging erstwhile top leader Quezon City.

The OCTA Research provides an updated (June 3, 2021) monitoring report for LGUs with most new cases per day (from the period May 27 – June 2, 2021). The table below shows the percentage growth of new cases from the previous week, the Average Daily Attack Rate (>10 is high risk), the Hospital Bed Utilization Rate (HBUR) and the ICU occupancy per city/municipality. Among the top 30, areas of serious concern are: Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, Iloilo City, Tarlac City and Tuguegarao. Some of these areas of concern are either in GCQ or MGCQ status.

The typical Wednesday is a few cases more than the day before. The Health Agency announces 5,257 new cases today based on close to 40,000 tests done for May 31, with a positivity rate of 12.8%.

With 146 new deaths announced today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.78%.

Healthcare utilization is higher nationally than the NCR.

The NCR takes back the lead with a little less than 1,000 new cases or 18.2% of the total cases for the day, followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The irony is, that even on a day like Wednesday where the new cases are lower than the rest of the days of the week (except Tuesdays), all but one region (BARMM) report triple digits.

In NCR, Quezon City continued to report more than 200 new cases, but it was the city of Parañaque that snuck into second spot. Six of the 17 LGUs in Mega Manila were among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Cavite kept its lead on a provincial level, but Davao del Sur took second rank. Cases in Davao del Sur were driven by Davao City with 226 cases. That was enough to wrest the lead among cities with highest cases for the day.

The OCTA Research Monitoring report for today June 2, 2021 provides an update on the COVID-19 data in the country.

Notice that the reproduction number in both NCR and nationally are up at 0.68 (from 0.57 last week) and 1.09, respectively. This increase in the Rt for the NCR was due to an increase of 8% growth rate. The Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) for NCR remains in moderate risk at 8.22 per 100,000. While NCR saw a slight uptick in Rt (due to increase in cases for the week), the rise in Rt nationally to 1.09 was driven by two factors: the rise in cases outside of NCR and NCR’s cases losing the momentum in decline.

Based on the top LGUs with most cases for the week, Davao City has a growth rate up by 70% and sits in second place. It is, however, Cagayan de Oro (which is in 3rd spot) that is more problematic. Its growth rate is more than 50% but its ADAR is at high risk (18.78%) and its health care utilization rate is at 75%.

The major driver of new cases have now shifted to the regions outside of NCR. As to whether this will return with a vengeance in the NCR because of less tighter quarantine status in areas with high cases outside of Mega Manila and the highly porous borders and the various LGUs requiring testing only when traveling out of NCR but not on the return to the capital city will be something we need to monitor closely in the coming weeks.

The first day of June is a Tuesday. The number of cases on Tuesdays and Wednesdays are usually 25-30% lower than the average cases from Thursday to Monday. The fact that the Health Agency reports 5,1777 new cases for reports of May 30, Sunday, with 11.7% positivity is quite unsettling. The active cases are still at more than 50,000. The regions outside of NCR are now accounting for around 85% of the total cases in the country. This is reflected in the healthcare utilization nationally vs the NCR. The driving force in increased hospital care on a national level are regions outside of Mega Manila.

With 46 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes remains steady at 1.78%. Total deaths has now breached 21,000.

Suddenly, the NCR slips to third place (which is good for the NCR region) as CALABARZON and Central Luzon take the lead in new cases by region. Mega Manila accounted for 12.6% of the cases. Together with regions IVA and III, these three regions accounted for 43% of the total cases in the country today.

Of the 17 LGUs in NCR, Quezon City continued the lead with 182 cases, with Muntinlupa moving up to 4th rank for the day. Six of 17 LGUs were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Cavite took the lead, with Isabela, Cagayan and Nueva Ecija in second to fourth spot today.

Cities outside of the NCR with the most cases were mostly from Mindanao – Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, and General Santos.

The World Health Organization COVID-19 dashboard (https://covid19.who.int) provides us an overview of the over-all situation of the pandemic globally. As of May 30, 2021, notice the data provided below where the surge in cases is now concentrated in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific region (where the Philippines belongs).

The graph provided is a weekly summary of the cases. The Western Pacific cases continue to increase and while there are only over 3M cases in this region (of which the Philippines belongs), the Philippines contributes to more than 40% of the cases in this region alone.

The graphs below isolate now the data of South-East Asia and that of the Western Pacific.

The bad is news is that we landed tenth among all countries in the world with MOST new cases, yesterday. The number of cases today and yesterday were just a few hundred cases, as the Health Agency announces 6,684 new cases today. This is based on reports from May 29, where 13.7% of the close to 45,000 individuals tested were positive. The positivity rate has really not gone down and is unsettling in the sense that the only way we will be seeing lower cases is when the positivity rate drops. (See the analysis of positivity rate per province or region below as reported by OCTA Research).

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases now approach 55,000.

And with 107 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes remains steady at 1.78% as the Philippines ends the month of May 2021 with 1.23M total cases since the start of the pandemic.

NCR swapped with CALABARZON for the lead today but both regions reported less than 1,000 cases each. NCR owned less than 15% of the total cases. NCR + CALABARZBON + Central Luzon accounted for only 39% of the total cases for the day. Again, ALL regions in the country continued to report triple digits.

Quezon City continues to lead Mega Manila and nationally with more than 200 new cases. Nine of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Negros Occidental took the lead over Laguna.

Other cities outside of NCR among the top ten cities with most cases were: Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod City, Davao City, Iloilo City and Zamboanga City.

The updated OCTA Research Monitoring report for May 31, 2021, shows that while the downward trend in NCR plus bubble continues, it has actually slowed down. The national reproduction number is up at 1.02.

In the NCR, the numbers took a dramatic decline over the past weeks. Last week, the decline was only 1%. Other areas like Cavite and Laguna saw increases. This pushes the reproduction number of NCR up at 0.69 from a previous low os 0.54.

The full report of OCTA Research is provided below. Notice the tremendous increases in certain regions/provinces. While the cases may have decreased in Palawan, the decrease is not reflective of the actual nature of the positive cases as the positivity rate there is 53%. Or 1 in every 2 people tested, being positive. Camarines Sur has the highest positivity rate and up at 90% increase in cases. Isabela and Cagayan have more than 100% rise in cases and positivity rates that are more than 25%.

The Health Agency reports 7,058 new cases on the last Sunday for the month of May. Today’s report is based on positivity rate of 13.2% for reports on May 28 with close to 45K tests done. The total number of actives are also up at close to 54K as there are more cases than recoveries. With one day left for the month of May, will we see more than 1.23M total cases?

New deaths reported today were 139. This puts the case fatality ratio for outcomes steady at 1.78%.

Notice the higher hospitalization utilization rate nationally (58%) versus the NCR (54%). As of yesterday, the NCR owned 15.5% of the total cases for the country, while NCR plus bubble (including CALABARZON and Central Luzon) accounted for 50% of the total cases in the nation.

With the cases now spreading to the regions outside of NCR, the cases this week are up, as the Philippines is one of the countries in Asia that takes a U turn in terms of new daily cases. Thailand and Indonesia are two other countries that are seeing an upward rise even before the cases have significantly gone down.

Taiwan and Malaysia, on the other hand, are continue to report rising cases, as Malaysia for the first time landed in number 8 among the top 10 countries with most cases yesterday.

While the Philippines saw an initial decline in cases last Sunday, this was due to a technical glitch in the COVIDKaya system of the country. An issue that was never answered by the agency as to where the unaccounted numbers had gone.

The past two months saw a decline in cases but not enough to reach pre-surge levels. And as the numbers took a downward trajectory, the past few days saw a quick U turn in number of cases. Notice also the confirmed deaths for the months of March to May 28, 2021. While the total deaths are a little less than 21,000 to date, the last 3 months alone accounted for more than 40% of all deaths reported since the beginning of the pandemic in the country.

Testing capacity stayed around the 45K-50K mark as the positivity rate, although on a decline plateaued at 12.5-13.5% in the past week.