The deal is that today is a Monday. As trends go, the weekend data will usually tell us how the week will go. And with 6,846 new cases announced by the Health Agency today, we will most likely touch the 5000-6000 range for cases on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the decline is slow, it is appreciable as the country ramps up with the vaccines particularly in the NCR plus bubble. This most likely will be a good trend as the positivity rate dips lower again today at less than 14%.

With 90 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio based on outcomes remains steady at 1.77%.

The number of new cases in NCR has begun trending lower than the 2,000 breakpoint, with 1,761 cases today or a little more than 25% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON reported 1,359 (20%), while Central Luzon owned 852 (12.5%) of the share. These three regions, that once contributed to more than 70% of the total cases in the Philippines now account for 57.5% of the total cases in the country.

In NCR, five LGUs continue to report triple digits, with Quezon City keeping the lead. Twelve of the 17 LGUS managed to still make it to the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Cavite and Laguna continue to haul in the numbers.

On a city level, Zamboanga City, Puerto Princesa and Cagayan de Oro are seeing a rise in numbers in the urban areas outside of NCR. It is noteworthy to mention that Davao City, which has not seen itself in the top twenty cities with most cases for a long time, is back, and landed in 20th spot today.

The updated OCTA Research report for May 10, 2021 shows how well all the LGUs in the NCR are now performing based on May 3-9, 2021 data. Currently daily average is 63% less compared to the peak surge last March 29 to April 4. And the initial projections of 2,000 cases by May 14 has been revised to 1,700 to 1,800 new cases per day. The actual report in full is provided below.

With today’s 7,174 new cases, the Philippines is averaging (based on 7-day moving average) less than 7,000 cases/day. This is good, considering that the positivity rate for May 7 (reported May 9) is lower at less than 14%. This pushes the Philippines now to more than 1.1 million COVID-19 cases.

The downside for today’s numbers are the rising deaths, with 204 new deaths today. The case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) is at 1.77 percent.

While NCR continued to lead on a regional level, it now accounts for less than 28% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON is seeing increasing share of the total cases. Eleven of the regions report triple digits, including Zamboanga Peninsula which is seeing a marked rise in cases.

Among the cities in the NCR, Quezon City continued to lead with 459 cases or 23% of the cases for Mega Manila. Seven other cities reported triple digits. Twelve of the LGUs in the NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Zamboanga City was number 2 overall among the top cities with the most cases for the day.

While Cavite continued to lead among provinces on a provincial level, Isabela and Zamboanga del Sur came in second and third, respectively.

The week in summary shows the decline in cases in the country. However, note the sudden increase in number of deaths.

Notice that while testing has more or less increased, it has also been very erratic. If we can constantly test regularly, the achievement lower positivity would most likely be faster. On the right side of the graph below, notice that the positivity rate is on the decrease.

While we know the problem India is currently going through, they are not alone. And neither is the Philippines. Several countries in Asia are trying to address second, and even third surges. Notice the graph below where Nepal is following the same trajectory as India, aside from sharing a border with India. Malaysia, Japan, Thailand, Maldives are noticeably seeing an increase in cases. The driving force? Variants and porous borders.

Let’s start with the data released by the Health Agency for today. With 6,979 new cases, the Philippines has a 7-day average of 7,200 new cases/day, lower than the previous weeks. With NCR plus bubble as the epicenter of the outbreak in the country, the decline in cases in the Mega Manila has significantly brought down the number of new and total cases.

There were more than 10,000 recoveries and 170 new deaths reported today. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.77 percent. The active cases are down 5.8% today and it is a breath of fresh air to see the positivity rate trend less than 15% for the past few days with more than 50,000 tests being done. While the DoH points out that the ICU capacity is lower now in the NCR, it is unsettling that the ICU capacity has stayed at 63% nationally – which means that other regions who now account for more than 70% of the cases outside of the NCR are on the brink of a health care crisis in this second surge.

The OCTA Research has released, for the second day in a row, an update on the status of the National Capital Region, the hospital occupancy, regional status and the status of cities with most cases.

As the reproduction number in the NCR continues on a decline, the current daily average is 58 percent less marking the third consecutive week with a greater than 20% decline in cases. At this trend, the NCR is “expected to have less than 2,000 new cases daily by May 14.” But this is not a reason to put our guards down or reboot the economy because these are still high levels to contend with. We need to temper the decline in cases by correlating it with hospital bed occupancy and utilization of intensive care units. Note that the ICU utilization “for COVID-19 remained high, with 846 ICUs in the NCR occupied.”

On a provincial level, the top twenty provinces with the most number of new cases for May 1-7 are tabulated. “While the trend in the NCR is stable, the trend in Laguna is not. There was an increase in new cases in Calamba. Outside the NCR ‘bubble’, the following are considered areas of concern due to a rise in new COVID-19 cases: Cagayan de Oro, Puerto Princesa and Bacolod. Hospital bed and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 remained high in Baguio City, Tuguegarao, Cainta, Antipolo, Zamboanga City and Calamba.

Among the top 28 LGUs, Quezon City continued to lead but there is a decline in cases by 21%. All LGUs in the NCR are seeing lower cases except for Muntinlupa City, which is the lone LGU in Mega Manila that saw a rise of 11%.

Today’s data drop showed NCR accounting for less total cases (28.8%) compared to the previous weeks and as projected by OCTA, if the Rt continues its downward trajectory, should see less than 2,000 cases before the middle of the month. NCR + CALABARZON + Central Luzon continue to contribute to 60% of the country’s total cases.

In Mega Manila, new cases are lower in each LGU except for Muntinlupa which is seeing an unprecedented increase in numbers the last week. Eleven of 17 cities in the NCR are among the top twenty cities in the country for the day.

Four of five provinces in the CALABARZON region remain in the top ten provinces with most cases, with Laguna and Rizal in the lead. Laguna is being dragged to the top because of increasing cases in the city of Calamba.

A shave from 8,000 the Health Agency reports 7,733 new cases today, bringing the total cases close to 1.09 million. We will most likely cap the weekend with 1.1 million total cases.

Of course, one would always say that we can see the data today as a cup half full, instead of a cup half empty. So let’s look at that half full cup. The positivity rate for May 5 is at 14.1 % based on over 50,000 test run.

As of today, the Philippines has had more than 1 million recoveries from the more than 1.087 million total cases. The cup half empty is that with 108 new deaths, we have now passed the 18,000 deaths mark as well. The case fatality ratio based on outcomes (there were fewer recoveries than cases today) is slightly up at 1.77 percent. And while the Department of Health reports improvement in ICU capacity, which is down to 69% filled up in Mega Manila, this does not seem to translate to the actual occupancies in various hospitals in the National Capital Region.

Of the 7,733 cases reported today, 2,296 were from NCR or less than 30% of the total cases in the country today. A dramatic decline from what used to be the NCR accounting for almost half the cases in the Philippines. Based on the OCTA Research Philippine COVID-19, May 7, 2021 report, the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Mega Manila from April 30-May 6 is at 2,454, a drop of 56% compared to the peak surge. “The one week growth rate in the NCR was -25% from the previous week. The reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 0.70. The reproduction number in the entire country was 0.86.”

“The positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 16% based on an average of 22,941 tests daily. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR for COVID-19 decreased to 52%. The main concern is the continued increased in COVID-19 ICU beds occupied, currently more than 850. ICU bed occupancy rate for COVID-19 in the NCR, remained stable at 71% as the DoH helped scale up ICU bed capacity in the NCR.”

The granular data is provided early today showing the NCR owning less than 30% of the total cases in the country followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The NCR plus bubble account for 63% of the cases in the nation. For the first time, 13 additional regions report triple digits.

Twelve of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases in the country. Quezon City continued to lead among cities in the Philippines with 453 new cases today.

The province of Cavite, Isabela and Bulacan were the top three contributors to today’s numbers.

While we focus on our own outbreak in this second surge, we take a break and look at our neighbors and see how they’re struggling in the pandemic. With a shared border, and culture, Nepal was most likely to be the next India. The striking difference is that Nepal is one of the poorest nations in the world. The country of more than 30 million people are banking on a healthcare system that has only 0.7 doctors for every 100,000 people and has 1,595 intensive care units (and 480 ventilators) for the whole nation. On a per capita basis, Nepal is seeing the same trend as its next door neighbor India.

Back home, the Health Agency announces 6,637 new cases today pushing the total cases now past 1.08 million. With more than 6000 new recoveries, the active cases remains steady at 5.8%. The positivity rate is also stable at 14.7% as of May 4 data.

New deaths were at 191 today. The case fatality ratio for outcomes is up at 1.77%.

Back home, the granular data showed NCR doing better (albeit still in the lead) with a little more than 2000 new cases. CALABARZON remains in second with 1,484 new cases. However, it is Western Visayas that has had more cases than the previous days with 488 reported.

Twelve of 17 LGUs in the NCR landed in the top twenty cities with most cases. With the rise in cases in Western Visayas, it was Bacolod that landed in 6th place overall among the top twenty cities.

The 4PM announcement of the Health Agency of 5,685 new cases was one good news (although it is a Wednesday) and a day where we expect lower number. With 8,961 additional recoveries, the active cases are now down to 62,713 (5.8%). The data announced today showed 14.9% positivity for May 3, 2021.

The bad news was the 178 new deaths. A significant climb from the previous days double digit numbers. This brings to 1.76% the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths). Hospital ICU occupancy is still at greater than 70%. Severe and critical patients comprise 2.8% of the total active cases or around 1,756 patients requiring hospitalization (and the presumption is that they are in hospitalized to be included in the statistics of the Department of Health).

Of the 5,685 cases today, NCR owned 1,612 or 28.4% of the cases. CALABARZON was in second with 1,334 or 23.5% of the cases. Central Luzon was in third with 580 cases (10.2%). These three regions alone consistently account for almost 2/3 of the cases in the country.

Here’s the granular data for the day.

If there are two days of the week we look forward to, even during a surge, it’s Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

When this trend is broken and the cases exceed the other days of the week, we know that this pandemic is headed north. But it isn’t. The Health Agency reported 5,683 new cases today and 9,028 new recoveries, bringing the active cases lower to 6.2% (66,060). This brings the total COVID-19 cases in the country closer to 1.07 M, which we will most likely achieve tomorrow.

Positivity rate is lower than 15% today, the lowest it has come since the start of the overwhelming surge. In spite of this, this is still a far cry from the 5% cut-off of the World Health Organization and will still be a long way to go. Occupancy of intensive care units in hospitals is still a high of 74%.

There are now over 1,000,000 cases with outcomes – 92.2% recovering and 1.65% resulting in deaths. With the 97 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) stands at 1.76%.

Note, however, that 21 laboratories were unable to submit data for today.

The number of cases in NCR was less than 2,000 because of the lower total cases reported. CALABARZON was in second with 1,146 new cases. Ten other regions continued to report triple digits.

In the NCR, Quezon City continued tolled with cases but the top five included Taguig, Manila Caloocan and for the first time, Muntinlupa City lands in fifth. Fourteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

Among the top ten provinces, Rizal and Cavite continued to lead. Negros Occidental, however, came in third with 273 cases.

The first Monday of May kicks off with 7,255 new cases, a relatively lower number than the previous Mondays. While we may be seeing slightly lower cases, it was enough to push us past Romania to secure the 25th rank in the world with most number of COVID-19 cases. Romania is currently averaging 1,800 cases a day, while 24th rank Iraq is averaging around 6,500 new daily cases.

With 9,214 recoveries announced, the active cases are a bit shy of 70,000 (6.5%). The positivity rate for May 1, 2021, reported today is at 15.7%. Utilization for Intensive Care Beds are up at 74 percent.

Number of new deaths reported was 94. This brings down the case fatality ratio based on outcomes (recoveries and deaths) to 1.77%.

There were less than 2500 cases reported for the NCR. CALABARZON remained in second with 1,419 cases. Nine other regions reported triple digits.

Quezon City continued to account for the majority of cases in the NCR with 639 or 27 percent of the total cases. Twelve of 17 LGUs were among the top twenty cities with most cases.

Three provinces in CALABARZON were among the top three haulers for the day, on a provincial level – Rizal, Laguna and Cavite.

With 8,346 new cases and 9,072 new recoveries, the active cases in the Philippines are at 6.8% (71,472). The additional new cases pushes the total cases up to past 1.05 million total COVID19 (and this is an underestimation of the actual numbers in the country) and within an inch to overtaking 25th rank Romania tomorrow in the global ranking of COVID cases.

The week of April 25-May 1, 2021 saw a 7-day average of 8,182 cases and 97 deaths daily in the country. The total new cases for that week was 57,274 and total new deaths was at 679. If we maintain the same average week on week the coming month, we will most likely pass 1.2M total cases before the end of May.

The daily number of cases and deaths has seen a decline during the last week of April, with cases hovering at an average of 8,000 daily and deaths around 100 a day.

Number of tests done averaged more than 50,000 in the past week, but has not considerably increased in order to bring the positivity rate much lower. Note that the daily positivity rate still hovers way above the 5% cut-off for adequate testing at an average of more than 16%.

But the Philippines is not the only Asian nation that is currently battling surges during the pandemic. Indonesia has been seeing a significant decline since March 2021 and has seemed to plateau at 5,000 for the past month. The Philippines saw its second surge in March but has seen lower cases in the past ten days. Japan is battling its third surge, while Malaysia and Thailand are working at addressing their second surge.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Update as of May 2, 2021 showed the continuous decrease in the reproduction number in NCR with an 18% decline in number of cases compared to the previous week. The positivity rate in the NCR is also down to 17% with an average of 24,450 tests per day. Hospital bed occupancy decreased to 56% while ICU remained at 71%. Note that the percentage for ICU occupancy did not increase because the ICU bed capacity was increased to 1,125. The 804 ICU beds occupied to date is the HIGHEST in the NCR since the start of the pandemic.

The following table shows the LGUs in Mega Manila with the highest decrease in new cases from their peak values. Navotas, Pateros and Pasay led the cities with the largest decline. The attack rate is highest for San Juan and Mandaluyong.

This is a late addendum to the post as the DoH uploaded the excel data file quite late yesterday.

Among the regions, NRC + bubble continued the lead with a total of 5,261 cases or 67.3 percent of the total share in the country yesterday.

Quezon City continued to lead among the cities in the NCR, with Pasig in second. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases in the country. The surprise of the day was Zamboanga City which landed in 9th spot.

With more tests being churned out the past days, the Health Agency reported 16.8% positivity for April 29, 2021. The new cases reported the first day of May 2021 was 9,226 bringing the total cases close to 1.05 million. With 10,809 new recoveries, the total active cases are at 72,248 or 6.9%. Healthcare capacity for intensive care beds are still past the 70% critical level.

With 120 new deaths reported today, the case fatality ratio based on patient outcomes (recoveries and deaths) is a tad lower at 1.78%.

On a regional level, the NCR contributed to 35% of the total cases for the day. CALABARZON was in second with 18% and Central Luzon in third with 15% of the total cases. Ten regions saw triple digits today, with the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, MIMAROPA and SOCCSKSARGEN seeing higher cases today compared to previous weeks.

In the National Capital Region, Quezon City continued to have the most cases with 20% of the 3234 cases for this region alone. Pasig was in second with 380 cases. Ten other cities in NCR also saw triple digits. Pasay City, which saw an increase in cases at the beginning of the second surge had only 80 new cases today. Twelve of 17 cities in the NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases. NCR owned the top ten places among the top cities with most cases for today.

Among the top 10 provinces, Laguna for the first time grabs the lead with close to 500 new cases, followed by Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal, to round up the top five.